Respectable CAPE Sunday

We still have a chance of some thunderstorms this Sunday from noonish until nightfall.  With dew points in the mid 60sF and a cold front sagging into our region, I expect to see some convection to fire in our area sometime today.  I'd say over half of us will see a storm due to the respectable CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) that will be in place in our region this afternoon.  The graphic below shows the mean modeling of the probability of having at least 1000 J of CAPE for this afternoon.  Anyone in this shaded area is likely to have convection pop up within a short distance of their area.  You can clearly see the boundary setting up for today with the front coupled with the timing of maximum heating from ol' Sol.  I'd say the southern portion of PA will most likely see storms, but anyone in the Harrisburg area could see convection fire later this morning into this afternoon.

Below is the forecast surface map for later this afternoon.

The forecast remains the same for tomorrow as we are looking at nice weather for our July 4 celebrations.  Below, the map shows nice high pressure providing relatively dry air and warm temps with highs nearing 86ºF for the man temp.  Pretty much right at the 30 year running average for our area.  However, the frontal boundary does not get too far south of  PA as is so often the case for this time of the year so the skies will not be as pristine as they were just a few short days ago.

In closing, you know we are near the July 4 holiday as Wimbledon is winding down.  Yesterday we saw tennis' sweetheart Maria fall to defeat to the 21 yr old Czech Petra.  I wonder if in tennis the left-handers are called southpaws?  Anyway, it appears from the photo below regardless of who holds the plate at center court, Nike will come out the winner!

Happy 4th of July!

Smitty

AA:  Storms Sunday will be around our area.  Not everyone will receive a storm, and the rain will not be evenly distributed by the fact that I received 0.16" and the airport received 0.28"!  Happy Fourth of July!