Teleconnections Suggest Winter To Return

Teleconnections?  Is that some hokey kinda new-fangled meteorological forecasting methodology?  Well, uh, actually, YES!  Many of you are familiar with or at least heard of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and even the Arctic Oscillation (AO).  But over the years of my perusing weather patterns and studying oceanic teleconnections, I feel that the largest ocean in the world has the greatest impact on the world's weather!  Seems reasonable to me at least.  Now the most infamous oscillation is the sloshing of water in the Pacific bathtub known as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) where a warming of the equatorial Pacific has one effect whereas the cooling of the same oceanic waters (La Nina) has a widely different effect...globally!  But there are several other drivers of the atmospheric engine known as the MJO, the EPO, and the WPO.  Smitty...STOP...you're killing me with this "alphabet soup!"  If that's what you're saying or thinking...then...skip to the song and the AA.  But for those of you who are the least bit intrigued, humor me for a few maps and thoughts.  By the way, Happy New Year y'all!

So...with all of that up top, the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is forecast to tank and thus, in my opinion, the temps will respond in kind by also tanking.  Now, there is a bit of a lag, but the jet will react and thus cold will invade the lower 48.  Here is the Euro ensemble mean (51 members averaged together) for the 5 day period ending next Saturday...brrr...

The control run off of which the ensembles are run is even more bullish on coast to coast cold!  Take a look...both of these maps are for the 850 mb level or about 1 mile up.  But Smitty, we don't live a mile above the surface!  Agree, but using this level shows a "truer" movement of the air masses as the force of friction can mainly be disregarded.

Here is a map of the 5 day mean temps from the control for 5 days ending Jan 10; only FL sees any warmth.  But that indicates a rather strong SE ridge to battle the cold! Again...brrr...

And with that cold in place, and the rather strong and persistent sub-tropical high over the Bahama-mamas, a battle will ensue and snow/ice is the likely outcome somewhere from Dallas (DFW) to New York (LGA).  Here is the Euro's take...snowfall totals ending Jan 10...The "jackpot" spot on the NH-ME border is from a storm that will actually develop into quite a nor'easter for interior New England Thursday night into Friday.

There is still some uncertainty with that system, but in any event, thanks to the recent warmth in these parts, I do not believe there will be much to worry about in the KMDT area...snowfall totes by 2017!

Here is the uncertainty to which I alluded...51 different locations for the developing low pressure system...not a good synoptic set-up for a major snow event anyway in these parts...the high is too far east in the maritimes of O'Canada.

So far, this December has been just about 1ºF above normal so far in our region...

Compare the map above to the forecast from the Euro for the next 32 days!  Quite similar...

In conclusion, winter will return in waves over the next couple of weeks.  The risk is that with the teleconnections of the Pacific both aligning for cold air to move south, January might be colder than forecast above.  But time will tell.  The science of meteorology has always piqued my interest like no other...as many of you are fully aware.  So, I'll leave y'all with this...

I do believe January will favor cold, but not as bad...I don't think...as January 2014. (Northeast USA was 25th coldest on record).  OK...gotta run.  Planning to have a nice visit with my son and his wife today as he's in from STL.  Looking very much forward to it!

Happy New Year!

Smitty

AA:  After the mild start today, a shot of cold Thursday-Saturday with a skiff of snow later Thursday.  Heaviest to our NE in NE.  Then yet another brief warm up for early next week, but then the bottom falls out and could be quite cold into the middle of January.  There will be battle between cold and warm, so look for many small bouts of snow/ice in these parts.  Waaaaay too early to see any major storms, but with the cold in place, it is most certainly possible.