A Brief Look Ahead

During the month of September, the wx can be just a bit mundane.  How dare you Smitty!  The wx mundane?  Well, actually, uh....yeah!  Unless you are experiencing a tropical system that drops nearly 20+" of rain over a drainage basin the size of 5 townships and makes the Swatty rise to levels never seen before by modern man!  Otherwise, with the upper levels still rather warm from the past summer and surface temps on the decline, the convective activity is on the wane.  In other words, it takes a rather organized system to create some rather interesting wx at this time of year or a strong baroclinic boundary (difference between warm/cold/moist/dry) to generate any meaningful wx.  And frankly, I see very little potential of this over the next couple of weeks in our region.  I guess that's a good thing!  In other words, one must be very astute of their surroundings in order to locate any potential trouble that lures on the horizon...

With that said, I feel the chance of precip is nil through Saturday morning.  And so do the plumes...

The graphic above simply shows that all 17 members of the GFS ensembles show no precip at KMDT through Friday noonish...and one boils up a T-storm Friday.  The possibility of that is next to nil.  However, a front will be approaching from the NW and essentially weaken as it approaches the east coast.  Here is the GFS for Saturday evening with a bit of rain threatening the NYC metro region having passed through PA earlier Saturday.  Take a look...

As for temps, we are looking at a 2 week period with temps at or slightly below the 30 year averages as seen by the 2 graphics below.  These are the 7 day running means from the GFS with the first one for the 7 day period ending one week from today...

Clearly the modeling is hinting that the center portion of the states will be experiencing the coolest the fall has to offer...here are the 7 days for the period ending the 25th of September...just 2 days past the Autumnal Equinox!  Again, clearly the modeling is suggesting that a cool month is on the way for the central plains of the US...a Godsend for them; no doubt!

So there you have it...a rather non-descript late summer wx regime is in store for us here in central PA.  Therefore, in order to get a heartbeat, one must root on the Os, hope for the Phils (only 5 GB in the wild card...unreal!), "pray" for PSU (will they win a game in 2012?), and try to figure the Eagles...I'm glad there is some relief from the mundane wx in the form of the aforementioned equally quotidian sports teams and their quests!

I hope y'all have a great mid-week period and most of all...enjoy this stellar spell of late summer bliss of atmospheric benevolence.

Smitty

AA:  The wx is boring...but that is a good thing!  Typical late summer wx which is ideal on all fronts... (No pun intended!).

A Day To Remember

September 11, 2001.  Just the date brings back memories of what each and everyone of us was doing once we heard of the events unfolding on 9-11.  For me, I was in a classroom, teaching science just like any other fall day with the new school year upon us when my principal paid me a visit and simply told me to turn on the television.  At first, I had no clue what was happening until the correspondents quickly described the insanity in Manhattan!  Wow!  I also remember what a beautiful pristine autumnal day we were experiencing; clear skies, low dewpoints, and incredible visibilities; very similar to this morning's surface conditions!  So I just want to show you the maps from then and today and how the surface and upper air was quite similar to that day of infamy.

First, here is the surface map from this morning.  Note the sprawling high pressure over the east!

Now the surface map from 9-11-01.  Note the dome of high pressure over the east.  The map below shows only the pressures.  The high pressure is just to the west of its position as it was this morning.

Now look at the upper air pattern; the 500 mb level...first for this morning.  A fairly large ridge over the eastern USA with a trough off the New England coast.

And the upper air for 9-11-01 at the 500 mb level. A large sprawling area of high pressure over the US south of the 40th parallel out to the Rocky Mountain states.  "Clear sailing" in terms of aviation with few if any wx related flight delays.  Needless to say, the wx cooperated with the 9-11 plot.

And so today as we remember the tragic events of 11 years ago, we can enjoy some minimal solace in that the stellar atmospheric conditions being experienced today were indeed nearly identical on the day that changed the US history forever! 

Enjoy your Tuesday and mid-week period.

Smitty

AA:  Remembering the events (and the wx) of 11 years ago.