Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
As many of you know, I really like to try to figure out the medium range by using a variety of teleconnections in the atmosphere, numerical guidance, and input from what I consider to be very excellent forecasters in writing about my thoughts and concerns about the upcoming wx patterns. Well, this is one of those times where the signals are quite contradictory and we could see much above normal temps if you believe the Climate Prediction Center (see below) in the 6-10 day period...
...or even the NAEFS from O Canada...
...as opposed to the GFS numerical operational run which actually has it cooler than normal for day 7...
...and that pool of very cool air over Ontario north of Minnehaha has its eyes set on invading the lakes and the Mid-Atlantic region just in time for next weekend....
The above 850 mb temps would support temps in the mid-upper 70s under mostly sunny skies for the end of next week; not the 90s like the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts are saying! The 500 mb run of the GFS suggests a nice refreshing dip or trough through the lakes as well in the mid-levels of the atmosphere...
So with all of this said, I believe after a BRIEF invasion of summery wx for Sunday-Monday, a front will be poised to bring more late spring-like temps back for the bulk of next week as well!
What a disappointment my Transit of Venus viewing was last evening. A stubborn deck of stratocumulus totally obscured my view of anything coming remotely close to or transiting the sun! But if you missed this last opportunity to witness Venus transiting ol' Sol, check this website out for all of your viewing pleasures!
Like Led Zeppelin sang so eloquently back in the 70s..."Upon us all, a little rain must fall"...and so was my "rain" last evening with that stratocu deck that hung tough...just like the CD Rams baseball team! Good luck tomorrow on their quest to state gold!
Have a good end of your week!
Smitty
AA: Getting warmer this weekend; then another bout of below normal temps for the middle to end of next week in my humble opinion. Looking forward to another Ram win over a southeast PA team!
The amount of cloudiness may actually be a benefit to observe and to photograph the transit of our sister planet on Tuesday evening. Beginning around 6 pm Harrisburg time, Venus will begin to enter the space in the sky occupied by the sun! From 6 pm until sunset, Venus will appear in front of the solar disk. This is a transit. Mercury transits about 13 times per century; Venus in a strangle cycle of 8 yrs...then over 120 yrs. So relatively safe to say that if you miss tomorrow's transit, you'll not see this exquisite event again in your earthly time. So get out and enjoy....if we are not totally obscured by clouds!
The map above depicts the worldwide regions where one can observe this celestial feast for the eyes! The picture below shows where about (and the time) the atmosphere shrouded orb will be transiting ol' Sol. The 2004 transit also occurred in June and at sunrise that gloriously "foggy" morning, the low clouds and fog provided ample screening from the intense solar radiation that observing the event was actually very easy. In addition, the fact that if you do have a good horizon with minimal obstructions, earth's atmosphere itself will provide a measure of filtering that will enable us east coasters to view with a lessen intensity of solar radiation.
As for the surface depiction for clouds and precip tomorrow evening as per the NAM, here it is...There is a lonely shower in the Harrisburg area, but trust me, to try to forecast where exactly low clouds (solid grey shading), or scattered clouds (dashed lines) or even radar echoes are located; one might have a better shot at predicting the College World Series winner this year (Stony Brook Univ)...
This week will be cooler than normal...here is a map of the 7 day mean ending Sunday...
In closing, here is a nice little recap of the Venus Transit that will occur Tuesday evening beginning at 6 pm...
And go Stony Brook University in the college World Series!
Smitty
AA: Venus transit Tuesday evening...get out and observe this celestial majesty!
