Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
That is what will describe our weather for the next several days. We are experiencing a classic case of Indian Summer. I know, I know, you need a frost before you have a spell of true Indian Summer. But many places this past week had light frost in the lower Susquehanna Valley. Under cloud free skies and light winds, radiational cooling was optimal. Consequently, very cool mornings greeted early risers and patches of frost were observed by yours truly. So I am calling this weekend's wx official Indian Summer! Here is the IR satellite image as of this early Saturday morning. Look at the expansive area of cloudless skies over the eastern part of North America.
And here is the 500 mb chart for the above observation. A sprawling area of high pressure at all levels is what is dominating our present weather. We waited all September to experience this fabulous fall wx! Note the 588 mb high pressure over the Ohio Valley. This will support daytime maxes in the 80s just to our SW and a few locations here in the lower Susquehanna Valley will also tickle the 80ºF mark over the next few days! The stormy weather is being kept at bay out in the Rockies.
But then by next weekend, the expansive ridge will break down and a closed upper low will have our wx deteriorate rather abruptly with the potential of once again copious amounts of rain accompanied with wind and raw conditions. This upper low will spawn a surface low that depending on its track will determine the exact location of the heaviest rainfall. Here is the 500 mb prog for next Friday. That is a broad deep trough over the eastern half of the US. The Landis drainage project may quickly get tested!
Here is the potential rainfall as depicted by the GFS for the next 8 days in the SE portion of the USA. Now some will say that is spitting out only an inch of rain over eastern PA. I know! But my fear is that heavy purple and red band which is far to the east may actually be corrected westward with time and that the heavy axis of rainfall is much closer to the coast. There is a potential sub-tropical system to develop by Tuesday off the SE coast and it may stay closer to the mainland than the present numerical predictions from the GFS.
Here is the Canadian's depiction of this system. The first map shows tropical development by Monday. The 2nd is for Wednesday and clearly develops a rainy scenario for the middle of next week with a 1004 mb low over the Chesapeake Bay. So the jury is clearly still out! Not sure which yet to believe.
Here is the storm over the Bay.....albeit it not too strong...but that 850 mb wind from the SE would lead to much rain for our area mid to late week.
After this system passes on by, it does appear that much cooler air will once again invade the eastern US as shown by the 850 mb temps for next Sunday. And although I cannot show you, the 15 day prog is for an even deeper shot of cold air that will make many of aware that winter is just around the corner!
In closing, I would be remiss to not mention the total collapse of my favorite baseball team this October. The team was assembled (with outstanding pitchers) to not only win a short playoff series, but to win a 7 game postseason series as well! The only problem with the plan...you've got to hit! Manufacture a run...anything. When you give up ONE RUN in a deciding game, you should WIN! ONE RUN! That's it! ONE! When Chase Utley drove his ninth inning at bat 400'+ to dead center, I had the excitement of 988 mb low coming up the coast in January with a large dome of high pressure over the NE US....a classic nor'easter on the way! When his blast was caught by the Cardinal center fielder, it was like the storm veered off to the east and we got but a thin veil of cirrus from what turned into a "fish" snowstorm. The wind just left my sails....uuugh! Now we wait and see who will prevail for this year's version of October MLB! Not sure who will succeed in that venture either...
Have a good week's end!
Smitty
AA: Beautiful weather through Tuesday, then potential for some good rainfall....followed by another shot of fairly cool October wx! Now the Phillies can play golf with their RedSox colleagues!
...we are looking at yet another potential visitor from the tropics. Here is the GFS at 192 hours from now (middle of next week). That 996 mb low is tropical in origin and is taking a path similar to Irene if this model would verify! It is waaaay too far however to be definitive at this time.
And then looking far into the future, it appears the modeling wants to make the last part of October cold as the 850 mb freezing line dives into the deep south at day 15! That is one deep trough, again if that would verify. Just a heads up to all of this....
"With a load of iron ore twenty-six thousand tons more than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty, that good ship and true was a bone to be chewed when the "Gales of November" came early." So sings the legendary singer-songwriter Gordon Lightfoot in his eloquent recalling of the sinking of the iron-ore ship that ran across Lake Superior from Duluth, MN to northern Wisconsin and the upper peninsula of Michigan. Most, if not all of you are familiar with this very famous ballad.
So why do I open with this? Well, we are presently experiencing November-like weather here in PA thanks to a very strong and digging trough at all levels of the atmosphere that did cause Storm Warnings to be posted earlier in the week over both Lakes Michigan and Superior. This morning's raw weather is a result of this anomalous low for this time of year. Take a look at the 7:00 am obs from across central PA!
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS BRADFORD LGT SNOW 33 31 92 NW7 29.85S FOG DUBOIS LGT SNOW 34 34 100 NW8 29.87R FOG CLEARFIELD LGT RAIN 37 34 87 NW3 29.86R JOHNSTOWN FLURRIES 34 34 100 NW16 29.85S ALTOONA RAIN 38 34 85 NW10 29.85R FOG STATE COLLEGE RAIN 37 36 93 CALM 29.84R WILLIAMSPORT LGT RAIN 42 39 89 W9 29.80R SELINSGROVE RAIN 41 39 93 W5 29.81S FOG FT INDIANTOWN CLOUDY 41 41 100 NW15G25 29.75F CAPITAL CITY LGT RAIN 42 38 85 NW12G22 29.79S HARRISBURG CLOUDY 42 39 89 NW15 29.78S YORK CLOUDY 43 39 87 NW8 29.79R
And read the statement from the State College NWS office this am!
0.7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED BY THE CO-OP OBSERVER AT LAUREL SUMMIT THIS MORNING. THIS MARKS THE EARLIEST DATE IN THE COOL SEASON THAT LAUREL SUMMIT HAS SEEN SNOW. CO-OPERATIVE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN TAKEN AT LAUREL SUMMIT SINCE 1997. BOTH KJST AND KBFD ARE SNOWING AS OF 11Z. TEMPS AT 34F MEAN LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS MOST LIKELY OCCURRING THERE...BUT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY AOB FZG. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT SLUSHY ACCUMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE RIDGE TOPS.
This is due to global warming as I'm sure you are all very much aware! Take a look at the model initialization for the GFS as this early morning....what a deep 500 mb trough and vorticity!
And you can clearly see the cold air at 18,000 feet streaming into the Mid-Atlantic states from O Canada. And you can also see that this low is once again too far south of the main portion of the jet stream which is displaced well to the north. Thus, until this upper low fills and and lifts northeast, we will have the potential for showers (instability) at any time, but the precip rates will not be too hard to handle. Look at the temps at one mile up as of this morning! Now this is not an observation; however, it is just run run from the initialization data at 06Z. Also note the very warm air aloft over MT, ND and SD. Under that 500 mb ridge, temps will moderate as that ridge progresses east during the week.
Here is a map of that ridge as forecasted by the GFS by Thursday afternoon.
The flow at 18,000' will still be NW, but the source region of the air has changed drastically. Thus, look for temps to moderate to a more typical early fall "norm". Here are the official NWS forecast highs for later this week (Friday).
So get through this "ugly" wx the next couple of days and early fall weather will be your reward awaiting your upcoming weekend! And here is another reward as you read to this point. A recording of the classic Gordon Lightfoot ballad of the Edmund Fitzgerald. He opened with this song on his second set last evening at the Luhr's Center on the campus of Shippensburg University playing with the same? 12 string. Gordon sounded like he was 72 yrs old and on his 18th show of his current tour. I felt quite comfortable walking into to witness this show since Doc had easily handled the Cards by setting down 21 straight after giving up that 3 run dinger to Berkman. Here's hoping that Cliff can work similar magic this evening at the Bank! Now kick back, relax, and enjoy this 6 minute ballad that described the fate of this ore carrying ship on that November day in 1975.
Enjoy your Sunday!
Smitty
AA: Quite raw and ugly for this time of year. But improving conditions will begin Tuesday with beautiful early fall weather by the weekend! Enjoy this folk song you "folksy" guy!
