Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Once past today's little skiff with winter weather, my eyes shift to the POTENTIAL of a rather memorable December snowfall event prior to a warm-up the week leading to Christmas. Now, I do not think a "blow-torch" is coming anytime here in December, but a relaxing of the jet and its digging troughs into the eastern part of the continent will abate and more seasonal air will be around for the Big Guy's preparations to visit PA. But when he comes, I believe he will bring yet another shot of the arctic air with him. Let me try to explain...this pattern is wired for sound!
First off, today's snowfall will be an event for the Delmarva and Jersey; not so much for KMDT...but it will get people into the festive spirit for the holidays.
The passing and deepening of this coastal low will serve to dump arctic air into these parts as seen by the 500 mb chart. Follow the isobars back NW from PA as they commence over the arctic ocean and even the pole. Take a look...
That little wave in Nebraska might be a sneaky event for Monday, but I'm looking for something a tad more nefarious for later in the week. I do believe another whitening is on tap for early week prior to the potential for later in the week. The cold again is the easy part of the forecast; the timing of these waves and the potential to join 2 jets is the real challenge! Here is a graphic of the 5 day mean for cold this upcoming week. That is ~10ºC below norms or a good 15º-18ºF below our 30 year average. And just to let my faithful readers know, for KMDT, the normal max is currently 43ºF and the normal min is 27ºF...so that is one cold outbreak depicted below!
And what I will be watching over the next several model runs is how the energy in Iowa and Missouri interacts with its surroundings. The energy back over the Baja, if any piece of that can translate east to help amplify that wave in the mid-levels...well...it COULD get interesting in these parts. Might become a "Manitoba Mauler"! No interaction; then a simple "Sasky Screamer". Again, the ducks are on the pond, but let's see what transpires in the next few days in numerical modeling world!
Whatever does occur, a relaxing of the cold (it has to from what will be a VERY cold week) will occur the week before Christmas. However, the global modeling ensembles are suggesting another arctic attack for Christmas to New Years week...take a look! That vast area of "Barney" color is diving SE towards the lakes and heading for the northeast in the frames prior. It could be a very cold Christmas Day, but that is 16 days hence...waaaay tooooo far to hone in on that.
And the Euro ensembles are seeing the cold hold over the next month... and for you snow lovers, that is the prime ingredient for the blanket of white! Speaking of that, take a gander at the current snow cover...hey...it don't snow in Mexico!
OK...I've rambled long enough. I'll leave y'all with a folk song written by Joni Mitchell and recorded by many artists over the years. My favorite version is performed by Sarah McLachlan but I'll send y'all off with yet another outstanding female vocalist. Enjoy!
Thanks for reading! I'm out, my coffee needs refilled!
Smitty
AA: A wintry week on tap...along with several solid stouts at area establishments for this kinda weather! Watching for trouble late week???
The energy and amplitude of the jet stream is "off the charts" from what I observe not only currently, but well into the future. Snows deep into the Lower Rio Grande Valley and deep south with a solid nor'easter, albeit a tad strung out, moving off the east coast this weekend followed by what I believe will be what will feel like brutal cold for the bulk of next week. This high amplitude pattern is fanning the flames via the oft feared Santa Ana Winds at this time of year in southern California as well! Let's take a gander...
First, a widespread view of the short range reliable NAM for accumulating snows across the eastern US. That's quite a swath of snow from TX to ME...wowser!
New Orleans will miss out of the fun since Lake Ponchartrain will keep the City of New Orleans warm thanks to the northerly flow over the near 60ºF water. There will be NO SNOW FOR YOU! Still impressive for December 8!
This storm just missed "phasing" as seen in the 500 mb anomalies...note the energy in the south just missing perfect north-south alignment with the digging upper energy from the arctic!
Note the low surface pressure over the lakes and the low over the gulf stream in the Atlantic...a near miss!
But that's not the only game in town! There will other opportunities for these short waves join forces and spin up an appreciable snowfall in these parts before the big guy heads south in a couple of weeks! That is one deep trough and very low upper atmospheric heights for this time of year...aka...lot's of potential!
It will be cold to be sure as the graphic below is a FIVE DAY mean temp anomaly! Brrrrr...
OK...gotta run. You know the drill; my pups are nosing at me wanting their kibble. Ziggy and Zola's biorhythms are more reliable than Hillary's email servers! So with all of that said, I'll leave you with a version of White Christmas that I thoroughly enjoy and I hope y'all will too!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Cold and getting colder! Just missing out on a nice snowfall Saturday; wide right! But there are other ducks on the pond so to speak. Stay tuned!
The first ingredient for snowfall is cold air at all levels of the atmosphere, top to bottom. I believe that is an easy ingredient once past Wednesday. The second ingredient is ample moisture to either overrun or dynamically being lifted with a solid cold temp profile from the surface to 2-3 miles up. Either way, both should be in effect for this upcoming week. By the way, at this first week of Advent, I believe snow WILL be on the ground when we christians celebrate the birth of our Saviour. Let me explain...
Both the American...
And the Euro...
...have an idea of a wave low pressure developing on the front and giving a bit of accumulating snow in the coastal plain from the Mason-Dixon northward. One thing to be sure is that it will be much colder than recent days...how about 10°F below seasonal norms? As per the Euro...
OK...I've let y'all know the gentle weather of autumn is going to quickly snap and deliver winter-like weather in these parts...likely for the next 30 days plus...which for many will be a rude awakening as we've been blessed with a mild autumn. Many love the prospects of a "White" Christmas, and I truly believe from studying the pattern that this year it is likely that Christmas will be cold with at least an inch of snow on the ground. Here is a map of climatological averages...
With all of that said, enjoy this tune from a Canuck who most likely loves the cold and snow and ice and all of winter's glories. Those of you have read these posts over the last couple of years know I love this artist! Enjoy...
And have a great week in anticipation of Christmas. I will continue to monitor the impending winter-like weather for my faithful readers...Bundle up and Buckle up!
Out...
Smitty
AA: The cold forecast is easy; now I'm thinking snow on the ground by the weekend!
