Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
I believe it is now becoming painfully obvious that this merry month of March will be anything but for those of you who are winter weary! While sitting here and watching a spring training MLB game with one eye, I have the other on the global numerical guidance suggesting that March will remain rather cold and stormy at least through the 3rd week. In fact, even the GW agenda driven NOAA suggests the same. Take a look at the 6-10 day...
And the 8-14 day prog...
And when I was looking at next week's upper air flow, it is rather ominous looking for those who are truly winter weary. That is a very deep trough for this time of year as depicted by the GFS ensembles!
In fact, I looked at the super-ensemble site from the Climate Prediction Center, and the Day 8 analogs have some rather snowy dates showing up. In addition, the Euro has been hinting at a strengthening cyclone moving from the southern plains up the spine of the Appalachians and spinning up another powerful gale center right along the coast all the while a major arctic high is building over southern O Canada. A classic springtime set-up for major snows in the northeastern US! Here is the low centered over WVA and transferring its energy for another storm off the VA Capes.
The anomalous pressures and height fields are shown here...that closed low at the 500 mb level spells trouble in these parts to be sure.
Now let's remember that the last time both the GFS and the Euro had a major hit on our area from 5 days out or so, not much materialized. However, this is different inasmuch as this is more of an upper air buckling of the jet stream into the east as opposed to a trans-continental bowling ball of a low pressure system simply rolling across the natural baroclinicity of the latitudinal temperature differences of last week...with the colder air overpowering the warmer and more humid air to the south. And as is so often the case, the numerical guidance often underdoes the arctic highs and their cold, dry dense air. So next week bears watching...to be sure! I mean watch how the Euro ENSEMBLES (numerous model "tweaks") phase the Sub-tropical and the polar jet disturbances. Here is next Tuesday...
And the 2 areas of lower heights (blue dips) join together over the eastern US!
The 2 blue dips merged together to make an "ugly" green and the damage has been done! And you want U-G-L-Y, look at this guidance from the Euro for the 4th Sunday of March! Unreal! This wx for the east will be true "March-Madness" if these models verify!
So, don't shoot the messenger. I'm just telling you like it is. And if you are a winter weary weather weenie, be happy that we dodged a bullet this past Sunday and again this Friday! One has to be a bit on guard when you see a surface synoptic set-up like this. But all of the numerical guidance swings this deepening cyclone out into the shipping lanes of the central Atlantic safely away from the Delmarva coast and leaving PA essentially unaffected in terms of any noticeable sensible weather changes.
OK...enough said for now. But seeing that today is Ash Wednesday and yesterday was Shrove Tuesday or Mardi Gras, many had the Crescent City in their minds. Well, here is one of the best "Big Easy" crooners accompanied with some heavy hitters of rock. I'm just telling you like it is...March will continue to hold the cold for several weeks yet to come. But this recording should warm the deepest cockles of anyone's frozen parts from this unending winter of 2013-14! Enjoy!
See...wasn't that outstanding? Goosebumps...and not from the cold!
Smitty
AA: March 9 is just a few days hence. Been listening to MLB on XM during my commute quite a bit lately as I need all the inside info I can get! They are also talking about how nice the wx is in both FL and AZ!
Well, not really dry, but the major snow event that looked like a lock from mid-week on last week will now struggle to accumulate 4" or so +/- in KMDT. It certainly now appears that the heaviest snowfall will occur somewhere (as it has occurred all season) nearer the Mason-Dixon Line. I had a discussion last week with a few interested parties that the concern of mixing will be an issue. Only at the onset, if much at all as the numerical guidance often under plays the strength of the cold, dense, dry air. Well, this is some SERIOUS cold air for this time of year as evidenced by the strength of the high pressure currently residing over the Dakotas and ridging back up into Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta. The leading edge of the cold, dense, dry air is now entering NW PA as I pound this old Dell keyboard...
Look at the current temps...that is some serious cold back up in MN and southern Canada. That air is what will create the overrunning boundary for the precip from the area of weak low pressure on a deep SSW flow. Just where that boundary sets up IS the million $$ question!
Although I personally believe it to be a bit further north than shown, this High-Resolution NAM graphic nicely shows the deep plume of moisture advecting straight from the warm Gulf of Mexico and heading towards the Mid-Atlantic states. As indicated, the higher pressures to the north keep PA in the drier air and thus will tend to limit the precip during Sunday night and Monday. But, as you can see, even a small jog to the north would greatly alter the forecast significantly.
The Euro and the Canadian have held their progs the best over the last several runs. Frankly, the American suite of modeling has been absolutely pathetic with their consistency. I admire computer modelers and their skill in writing programs that are able to simulate what the atmosphere or how any other fluid and dynamic event might result based on a specific set of algorithmic outputs. A talented pool of people to be sure! But, there has to be some serious studies as to how the modeling can be so inconsistent as a major wx event is within the "near-term" range. With all of that said, here is the Euro's overnight run for snowfall potential...
Again, a southern tier major hit! Does this warning map from the NWS look familiar? Persistence is a forecast skill that could have been used quite effectively this winter. It simply is the idea that it's cold where it wants to be cold; it snows where it wants to snow, it's "droughty" where it wants to be "droughty"...you get the idea!
Now a little meteorology lesson. Look at the 700 mb (2 miles up) winds for early Monday. The best divergent flow is over MD and northern VA. This will allow for better uplift and greater precip rates (red circle) as opposed to where the flow is more convergent (yellow circle) creating air to have a net downward movement and ultimately suppressing precip. Just exactly where this type of upper air dynamics set up WILL have a major effect as well as to the exact location of the true arctic boundary. Also, the greater the wind speed, the stronger the upward motion. The best 700 mb jet is clearly to the south of PA! This is a very tricky call...
Note how the 700 mb jet best depicts the forecast of most precipitation from HPC...
But cold will rule this first week of March; of that I am quite certain. Look at that monster high keeping the Arctic locked in over the northeast this week! It's been quite a cold winter! With any appreciable snowfall, Wednesday morning will be absolutely frigid! I'm expecting that 2 record low temps will go by the wayside this week at KMDT.
Ok...enough said other than I am truly humbled by the fact that many of you truly do read these posts and put some faith into my interpretations of all of this wonderful stuff we call the world of weather. And I do apologize that I was not able to address the changing forecasts yesterday (Saturday) as our family was celebrating a milestone birth of my wonder sister; the Smith Family "matriarch of sorts" with the passing of my mother now over a decade ago. And what a wonderful way to spend the bulk of my Saturday! I am truly blessed to have such a great group of human beings to call my family. This is an astounding testament to my 2 wonderful parents who raised 5 of us in a manner consistent with love and discipline. The values and ethics Mom and Dad instilled in us 5 is clearly being passed down through the extended families. Admittedly, it was refreshing to see! I hope I am not offending any of you reading this, but I am truly proud of our extended family. I jokingly commented to several of my relatives yesterday that the next time we all gather, we will have to have a program listing of all the cousins, 2nd cousins, grand-kids, etc running amok since we just frankly don't gather often enough. It was a great celebration of family!
With that said, and many of my family members being Pirate fans, I'll sign off with this classic hit from the Sister Sledge from 1979. (Touch of Irony...Sister Sledge is from Philadelphia, PA!) Enjoy the "disco" and baseball flashback!
Smitty
AA: A moderate snowfall is in store for KMDT Sunday night into Monday. Looking at 4" or so officially at KMDT. I will have closer to 6-7" since I am not trying to suppress snowfall totals as I have no Global Warming agenda. Northern MD looks to potentially get a foot or so! But a VERY COLD week ahead. One week buddy!
