The Pattern; It Is A Changin'

I decided to type this out since I had no voice today and was pretty freaked about it all...ask my wife!  That was a situation in which I felt most uncormtable... I did not like it at all...I even did what most experts say not to do and that was research the larynx and see what the deal might be...when I read the most common cause for laryngitis is the common cold, I felt quite relieved...inflammation of the larynx...weird...don't ya think?

Anywhoooo...With apologies to Bob Dylan in the title above, I waited for several runs of the global modeling before I decided to opine about the upcoming several weeks of weather here in the eastern USA...let alone across most of the USA.  After a warm start to December...understatement...see graphic below, I do believe we will again see cold air invade and reign over most of the CONUS much like November was in these parts.  I was surprised that many did not seem to think November was cold in the Harrisburg area; however, only THREE days exceeded the norms in terms of temps with the month averaging nearly 4˚F below normal!  Below is this December to date in terms of its anomalous warmth...remember...when its cold in AK, its difficult for cold air to move SE into the CONUS!  The map below would have the global warming crowd frothing at the mouth!

Ah...but things are about to change I do believe!  In fact, if you believe the modeling, much of the nation will have a "White Christmas".  Take a look at the GFS suggested snowcover over the CONUS centered on Christmas Day!  Ho...Ho...Ho!  Personally, my vote is the one in the upper right!  But all runs are suggesting a snowy period before and around Christmas Day.  And it does continue beyond...

I looked at the super-ensembles analogs for Day 8 and found 2010 come up numerous times!  In case you forgot, December 2010 was quite cold and a major blizzard crippled the northeast corridor the day after Christmas!  So the pattern is ripe for storms deepening and traveling from the SE states to the maritimes of O Canada delivering the snow goodies to the megalopolis of the NE USA.  

The fun and games may begin this weekend, but the Sunday event should be a cold rain for these parts; however, Tuesday-Wednesday might actually be our first major snowstorm for the upcoming winter season...Maybe of greater concern is for the ravaged barrier islands along the Mid-Atlantic and Jersey that if this verifies will suffer yet another major flooding event next week!  For us in KMDT, we would be borderline for snow...but with 2 highs to the north...I learned at a young age, predict the High; predict the snow!

Here's the GFS for the same system...it is a bit faster and a bit warmer...The GFS doesn't have as large of a cold High pressure system as does the Euro...

And cold will hang tough for the foreseeable future...this is in ˚C and shows the anomalous cold over the eastern US centered on Christmas Day!  Sweaters, hats, and gloves would make appropriate gifts this year if Santa is any meteorological guru!  And note what is upstream in MN and ND waiting to invade points SE!

So...I've done my job...to help y'all get excited about experiencing true winter wx and King Kold laying down a blanket of white for all of his winter minions!  I will leave y'all with this winter song from Sarah McLachlan...Wintersong.  It's part of my softer side as I mellow with age...just like a fine wine!

Enjoy your end of the week...and this upcoming weekend!

Smitty

AA:  After a beginning mild December, starting this weekend, December will turn on a dime and become cold and stormy with possibly 3 accumulating snows by Jan 1!