Winter's Last Hurrah?

Well, don't look now, but there WILL be yet another atmospheric opportunity to deliver some winter weary pain and suffering to those of us in south central PA later on Sunday.  As I've mentioned to some of you in passing today, I feel that a few snowflakes might mix in the rainfall later on Sunday.  As I am seeing things right now, if, AND THAT IS A BIG IF, everything would pull together, we could have one quick heavy wet snow dump Sunday afternoon/evening.  It doesn't look too likely, but the potential most certainly exists!

I'll show some very quick maps from the GFS...whenever there is such a strong upper closed low in this position, and as we are still at a point when the upper air is still very cold, one must be wary.

First, 500 mb for Sunday morning...this is a perfect set-up for yet another east coast storm!

Here is the surface map for the same time...Sunday morning...there won't be Blue Skies although bells should be ringing everywhere...

Then the upper air 12 hours later Sunday evening...

And the surface reflection at the same time...this is the period where the snow could fall fast enough and heavy enough to cause accumulations in the LSV if all things worked together!

But don't worry, Opening Day in many venues should be just fine as evidenced by this 500 mb ridge over the Ohio Valley translating eastward..(as the ocean storm begins to fill!)...

And the surface for Monday afternoon...(snow still in central and northern New England!)...

There is ample fuel for this potential fire!  Current radar snapshot...

Here is HPC's forecast for liquid sunshine through the weekend...ouch!

OK...gotta start my week's end.  And I'm sure some of you have figured what I'm leaving you with from my reference above...enjoy!

And enjoy your Opening Day weekend...MLB style!

Smitty

AA:  Rainy and raw weekend.  Good to get the grass growing soon!  Could snow Sunday in these parts!  But don't worry, it'll clear out and be quite pleasant for the Os to take the Sox on Monday!

This IS a Major Nor'Easter!

I mean just because KMDT isn't getting hammered with 6"-10" of wind-swept blinding snows, it IS still a major weather event for the eastern seaboard and all coastal and marine interests along the US and the Canadian maritimes.  As I sit here and pound the keys, the visibility out my window varies from 0.5-1.0 miles in light snow.  The temp is a balmy 29°F and the air is simply raw...or more objectively, ~25°F below the 30 year average!  Even if you don't like the weather, I think most would agree that you can be impressed with the meteorology!  Take a look from top-side!

Our snow that is falling is from the height falls from the upper level 500 mb low digging SE into the fuel AKA water vapor that is simply just a smidgen too far east to create greater snowfalls here in the northern mid-Atlantic.  You can clearly see on the above satellite pic the beginning of storm formation, or cyclogenesis and the baroclinic leaf directly over KMDT!  24 hrs from now, this will be one deep nor'easter 200 miles east of Bean-Town!  Here is the 500 mb initialization showing where on the "business side" (east) of the trough, the greatest ascending air is occurring.  That's a nice tight little vort max over western KT...I wonder if the Hilltoppers know what that even is!  But they sure know BB!

Anyway...take a look at how this 500 mb is progged to evolve by tomorrow morning at sunrise!  That is a closed 500 mb low with a negatively tilted trough that will create the monster storm in the north Atlantic!  Again, the meteorology is awesome!

And the surface map will look like this in terms of air pressure and wind speeds just above the ground level...pretty intense, but its just getting going!

Here is an animation of how this monster will evolve in terms of surface pressure and low level winds...

For us, cold and wind!  Oh, we'll see some snow until midnight, but the action is clearly along the New England coast, Cape Cod (they'll be some more wooden bats available once this blows through!), and the O Canadian maritimes!  Blizzard warnings for coastal sections, high wind warnings for the interior sections, and Gale & Storm Warnings, along with Hurricane Force Storm Warnings for the mariners.  Take a look at the Christmas Tree like coloration of the warning map for the northeast!  By the way, that is an extensive area of freeze warnings across Dixie!  Again, isn't the energy of the atmosphere impressive!

Now the good news...many times it takes a major...and I do mean major atmospheric disturbance to rearrange the upper levels and adjust the pattern so that the energy becomes more evenly distributed into different regions of the globe.  Contrary to the GW experts like Al Gore, the energy balance for the planet is a zero-sum game in the long run and this pattern shift is likely to help us enjoy some more seasonal temps and possibly even a more spring-like pattern over the next week once this cold lifts out. Below, the Euro ensembles indicate a slightly above normal 850 mb temp which would lead to normal to slightly above normal temps over the weekend into next week.  The GFS is not nearly as warm, but it's some hope.  Both however, show a cooling trend back towards the middle of April...time will tell.

But March has been cold as the graphic below will attest...remember...basically double the anomaly since it is in °C...man, its been a cold March!

OK...I've tried to sell y'all how impressive this storm truly is.  But it is the way of our atmosphere; has been...and always will be.  Especially at this time of year when the arctic wants to still flex its muscle and the tropics want to root on the start of MLB!  So just to get everybody into a little springtime mode and to forget about the next 2 mornings of what will once again be brutal chill at sunrise as the cold gets whipped in on the backside of this powerful nor'easter, listen and enjoy this "springtime" ditty!  (They might need some water soon...different post for a different day...but look at the map above...HINT!)

OK...gotta run!  I have 2 Four-legged ones reminding me its Din-Din time!  Their circadian rhythms seem to working just fine thank you...

Enjoy your mid-week and appreciate the meteorology...please!

Smitty

AA:  A very powerful nor'easter to blow up off the coast of New England.  Windy and cold wx will be the biggest impact here.  Then a moderating trend into the middle of next week.  Nothing crazy warm, but slightly above the seasonal norms.  I'll take anything to have my furnace rest...but those who know me say it's been resting all winter!