A Heat Wave to Remember

There is no other way to put it, this was an impressive bout of heat that invaded PA.  The last time we had temps this high in Harrisburg was 1988.  Yesterday's 103 at KMDT was an impressive figure, especially with the sultry dewpoints in the mid to at times upper 70s!  I clearly recall that 104 in 1988, but I wasn't in Harrisburg.  I was struggling on the Black Forest Trail climbing out of Foster's Hollow with a backpack filled with enough goods for a month...and we were only doing a 3 day trip!  The Tiadaghton Forest could afford little relief from the intense heat of those summer days... it was still hot even there at elevation!  That is why the 97 at BFD might be one of the most impressive maxes shown on the map.  At ~2,500 feet, it is difficult to make the mercury climb so high.  Jerome, Dubois set its all time max record yesterday with a 101!  The top number is the high; the bottom number is the low.  Newark's 108 does not show on this map, but that is not as impressive as that concrete jungle simply has no place to hide from the July sun.  Scrutinize the map for yourselves and think that you may not see a map like this again even if you live to be 100 yrs old!

Well, this heat is now going to SLOWLY fade and as it does the threat of some very heavy rainfall is in the cards.  But it is one of those situations where we could see 5 inches of flooding rains or less than 0.10 inch of a near miss.  Example, Chicago broke its string of heat by receiving over 8.0 inches of rain in less than 2 days.  That is the type of thing we could see here anytime from Saturday pm through Monday.  PA is now on the edge of the "heat bubble" and when you live on the edge, wild things, including flash flooding torrents of rainfall can happen!  The model does see the invasion of the cooler air from the north and east (backdoor front) and below is the morning low temps for Tuesday morning.  Note the temps of Lakes Erie and Ontario are warmer than than the surrounding air mass.  We can only hope!  Aaaahhhh!

Not only Tuesday with those glorious lows (20 degrees cooler than this Friday morning's low!), Wednesday is also progged to be below normal for max temps.  Take a looksie!

However, there will be no rest for the weary as the medium range promises yet another and possibly last surge of major heat back towards the northeast.  Both the Euro and GFS show anomalous warm temps beginning late next week and peaking on/about Aug 1 as seen below.

In closing, this July to date has been quite hot and dry.  I leave you with this graphic that simply shows 16 of the days in July thus far have had max temps above normal.  If you want a number, we are 4.13 degrees above normal for the month through the 22nd.  And it's been dry at least here in Etters where I've received 0.77 inches of rain to date and only a trace in the last 14 days!  That does not bode well for our gardening friends....but some rain is likely going to help usher out this "once-maybe-twice-in-a-lifetime" heat wave!

 

Enjoy your Saturday afternoon activities....which for me will be watching the Phillies in my AC comfort set at 80F!  Yesterday I was thermometer watching; this afternoon I'll be watching federal budget shenanigans and baseball.

Smitty

AA:  Record heat across all of PA and the northeast on Friday.  May not see those high temps again in our lives that widespread in our region!  Enjoy the weekend!

Record Breaking Heat

As of the last hour, KMDT has hit 102 F and has broken the previous record high of 101 F set 85 years ago in 1926.  The map below shows some awfully hot temps with sultry dewpoints even for the east coast.  That 106 F in Newark is hideous.  At least the 107 F in Inner Harbor has some scenery!  Make no bones about it, it is hot!  KMDT to the best of my knowledge has only surpassed 100 F 3 times in the period 2000-2010...so that places some perspective on this heat...wow...and....ugh!

I did just drive through a shower between Lancaster and York where the car's temperature sensor dropper to 85 F from 106 F in the matter of 3 minutes.  However, once we drove over dry highway north towards drought stricken Etters, the sensor immediately shot back to the 103 F.  The southern sky looks threatening as of this entry, but I'm not holding my breath...although some of you might wish I would hold my big thick hunt and pecking fingers.  Here is the forecast anomalies for next Friday with yet another day or 2 with temps ~10 F above normal. 

But before that, I do believe we will see at least one day (Tuesday) with max temps staying below normal.  I do not believe we will see much opportunity for widespread rainfall.  And now that we are in this dry pattern, we will need a synoptic scale system to deliver the goods as cold frontal passages often fail to do so when the pattern has been so dry.  So it is time to begin to start looking towards the tropical Atlantic for some help as well.  By the way, there have been 2 tropical systems named this week; Bret and Cindy.  Both were too far east to have any effects here along the east coast.  Here were their forecasts from earlier today.
Tropical Storm Bret:

Tropical Storm Cindy:

In closing, the heat is now officially extreme as we tied a record Thursday and broke the record on Friday.  This evening in Philadelphia, the Phillies and the Padres will be celebrating their 1984 teams by wearing the old garb.  I'm partial to the powder blue away uniforms of the 70s and 80s.  The Padres will have their yellow and brown.  To be sure, this 1984 classic will be played at Citizen's Bank Park this evening!  Enjoy!

Have a great week's end.

Smitty

AA:  Record heat today at KMDT...breaking the previous record of 101 F from 1926.

Looking for Relief From This Record Heat

One thing that I always like to try to do is look ahead at what mom nature might have up her sleeve.  In the winter, I admit that it is slightly easier as the jet stream tends to be more predictable and behaves more to modeling than it does in the warm season.  The timing of fronts and associated air masses is just a bit easier in the medium and longer term as opposed to the warm season medium range.  With that said and the vast improvement by the physicists and mathematicians who develop the modeling which amount to simply making equations of the atmosphere at all levels, I will go out on a limb and say that this pattern of a ridge in the mid section of the country will migrate more towards its climatological normal position in the western US and allow for cooler air to move south from O Canada, but also allow for the influx of tropical weather systems from the SE.  The map below shows the origin of tropical systems during the first 20 days of August climatologically.  If the ridge pulls west with time, this will allow an alley for these storms, if they develop, to move NW into the continental USA.  As my wife knows, I call these storms drought breakers as this is about the only way for mom nature to deliver meaningful rainfall in the "Dog Days" of August.

By the way, in case any of you were wondering why we call the endless summer days of August the "Dog Days", we have the ancient Egyptians to thanks for this.  During the pre-dawn hours of August, Sirius (Canis major) rises just prior to the sun.  Sirius being only 9 LY in distance is quite a bright star.  The ancient Egyptian culture believed the energy from Sirius and our sun helped create the intense heat of summer which allowed for the annual flooding of the Nile.  This is known as the star's heliacal rising meaning it will rise just ahead of the sun.  So get yourselves up before sunrise in the next few weeks and the bright star in the SE sky is Sirius, "The Dog Star".  The graphic below is drawn for the first week of August here at 40ºN.  Sorry I digress.....

 

As for the relief from the record heat (101ºF at KMDT at 3:02 pm Thursday tied the previous record max from 1991), I show you the CFS modeling for the month of August.  Doesn't that blue appear glorious.....blue being below normal temps.  Now I don't buy that completely, but the pattern does suggest that sustained NW flow will allow for cooler air masses to infiltrate into the central and eastern US.  Please note that the endless summer of heat and drought will persist across the Lone Star State.

And here is the 3 month average for Aug, Sept, Oct and once again, it suggests that we will have a cooler than normal early fall and that is often, not always, a result of wet ground as well.  So maybe the modeling is suggesting that the areas in the SE USA will be seeing some tropical weather that will allow for a cooling of the air masses as the energy goes into evaporating the rainfall.  But the drought continues in TX! 

Look at how ugly that drought is in TX!  3/4 of the state is in Exceptional Drought conditions. And you thought it was dry around here....Again....sorry I digress

Before we get to August, we still have another week of July and both the Euro and the GFS are depicting another bout of heat for the eastern 2/3 of the USA.  The map below is for early next Sunday.  The anomalies are not quite as extreme as this current heatwave, but nonetheless, temperatures will be above normal for another prolonged period starting the middle to end of next week.  See below....

So, of course it is hot now and you don't need me to tell you that.  Whether you are umpiring softball games, watching the corn and other plants playing defense in this hot dry weather, trying to catch fish in the 80º+ Susquehanna, or completing graduate papers, rest assured that this heat will generally abate early next week.  But it will not be swept out of here with nice refreshing NW winds.  It will be lurking to invade once again, but hopefully not as intensely.  However, keep the faith as a cooler August both in absolutes and against the norms is awaiting.  I will leave you with this classic Who hit in case you just needed a reminder that it is about as hot as it can get in these parts.  The Summertime Blues is what this heat and humidity can give me...... The cure is knowing that this heat will not last forever!  Enjoy this  10 minute Woodstock classic (personally I feel that Plant has it all over Daltry)!  Rumor has it that Townshend actually had a stage hand retrieve his smashed guitar?!?  Not sure why??

And enjoy the week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Hot today, hot tomorrow, not quite as hot Sunday, cooler Monday, but getting PDH again by the end of next week.  A 10 minute flashback to the summer of 1969 from Bethel, NY!

Hot, Hot, Hot!

Just a quick update on the heat!  I've attached the 3pm obs of the area around PA.  Note the 103 F in Elmira.  Also, the 101 F in Newark, NJ.  That is the classic "hot spot" in the northeast USA.  But the 103 in Elmira, and the other 100+ readings in southern NY show you what I often talk about of the heat "coming over the top" of the ridge.  That heat will tend to migrate southward tomorrow and now I believe Friday will be the hottest day.  You know it is hot outside when I have the central air set at 80 F and it feels quite comfortable in here!  Man, it is crispy outside and we need some rain.....and it doesn't look good.

Here are 2 thermograms and their accompanying humidograms.  Please remember that when the actual air temps exceeds 100 F, the dewpoints must come down in order for the parcel of air to gain that raw kinetic energy.  It takes a tremendous amount of energy to keep water in the vapor state at normal surface air pressures, thus as the dew points lower then the air can gain more energy in terms of raw motion, i.e. heat!  I don't want to bore y'all, but this is fascinating to me.  Even though the wind "feels" good, it allows the temp to increase on days like this!  If you hang your wet towels outside today, they will dry quickly even though the air is relatively speaking, humid.  But it is so hot, hot, hot, that water just gains enough energy to jump into the air and into the vapor state.  Neat.....isn't it?

By the time I got all of this done, the 4 pm obs came out.  Check it out!  I love extreme wx!

Here is 103 F Elmira's graph and the hot spot of the northeast Newark's graph as well.

 Be careful when reading these as their axes can be confusing.

Enjoy the tunes....you might as well feel like you are in that Caribbean paradise....not that tropical PA or Madison Square Gardens, NY!  (or Elmira, NY!)

Enjoy the heat all you lovers of this heat.....it's hot!

Smitty

AA:  It's hot!  Potential record heat today and Friday.  We need to get to 101 F to tie, 102 F to break the record for KMDT!

It's a Sad Day

And I'm not talking about the extreme heat that we in PA are going to experience Thursday and Friday.  I know I really shouldn't editorialize about the weather, but the heat and the lack of rain has made this week not very enjoyable for those of us who dream of high temps in the 20s with snow covered ground.  But seriously, one must exercise caution when experiencing 110 F heat indices.  The coupled effects of both the heat and humidity will make the temp on the human body feel like 110 F!  Just think if you had a coat on on top of that like our 4 legged friends.  Below are 2 charts; one with temp vs dewpoints and the other with temps vs relative humidity.

We should have straight air temps near 100 F and dewpoints around 70-74 over the Thursday-Friday time frame in the afternoons.  Those are "danger" zone heat indices. 

The map below shows the models' depiction of the hottest temps for PA.  This is for Friday afternoon when once again heat the heat index will approach 110F.  This is about as hot as it can get around here as we live in a humid environment and the water vapor essentially puts a dampening effect on the air's temperature.  The record high for both Thursday and Friday is 101F for Harrisburg.  We will approach these levels and could possibly exceed these if and only if some dry air mixes down to the surface from aloft.

OK...so we all know it is hot.  Relief is now being seen on the water vapor image seen below where I quickly sketched the boundary between the hot air over the plains and the east and the cool air to the Pacific west coast.  While the mainstream media is hammering away at this heat wave, record cool temps have been prevalent across CA, OR, and WA.  Just earlier this week, Bakersfield and Palm Springs, CA experienced record low max temps.  Now I know upper 80s and low 90s is not that cool, but it is in the deserts of the SW in July!  Note the air over PA has its origins in northern Mexico and SW Texas...ugh!

But relief in the form of the upper air flow will help give us a break from this current heat wave by Monday.  Here is the upper air flow progged for Tuesday. 

But this relief may be short lived as the US modeling is showing another resurgence of the heat by the following weekend.  Here is the upper air flow for next Sunday.  That is one big burly Bermuda High!

But it is not the weather that really has me sad.  It's the end of the shuttle program that does.  And just as Apollo ended, there was a new beginning in the planning of NASA.  This time; not so much.  The brain drain of the USA continues as we have no real plans for manned missions from our own resources.  Instead, we will pay the Russians $60+ million just to get our astronauts to the space station.  Regardless of what the political pundits or TV talking heads suggest, there is very little leadership in the country in many aspects INCLUDING THE VERY TOP!  There has been a very successful and world envy space program during my entire life in the US.  Now, this current administration would rather spend its resources in a vastly different manner than educate, train, and EMPLOY its brightest young people.  In fact, I swear we strive for mediocrity in this country...what a shame!  I doubt if we would ever hear as inspirational a speech from our current president as was given by another democrat and tremendous leader in the challenge thrown down as seen below!

Enjoy your hot Thursday-Saturday....and hang out in the shade sipping your favorite cold beverage.

Smitty

AA:  Very hot and uncomfortable until Saturday...then slowly cooling through middle of next week.  But more heat on tap for the following weekend.  NASA's shuttle program is now mothballed after 30 outstanding years of scientific leadership in the USA!

Hot and Crispy

That's what the lawns and fields of central PA are becoming!  With the low humidity and the hot July sun, the lawns are now showing their stress in these hot and lack of rainfall days that have been numerous here in July (we are -1.18" to date for rain in the month of July).  The heat has not been too abnormal, but this week we will have temps above 90ºF everyday except maybe Tuesday.  I do believe that either Thursday or Friday we will hit 100ºF at KMDT, especially if meaningful rain does not fall in the interim.  Below is a map of the forecast max temps for both Thursday and Friday.  First Thursday...note the smattering of purple colors >100ºF just south of us.  There could be some 100ºF readings in PA as well.

Here is Friday.  Note the larger region of purple indicating a generally hotter day than Thursday.  There is a possibility that clouds from thunderstorms may help cap the heat Friday, but nonetheless, we are looking at 2 awfully hot days with humidity to boot!  But for those of you who are observant; note the large O Canada high looming in Manitoba and with it is relief that will gradually make it here by early next week. 

Here is the upper air pattern for Sunday.  The dip in the jet stream will allow for some moderation in the extreme heat, but real relief will not be felt until mid-week when a stronger vort max spins down from our neighbors to the north.  Also note the center of the heat is now centered over the 4 corners...where it belongs quite frankly.

By next Thursday, the upper air should be diving into PA and points south...so relief will be both in terms of heat and potentially numerous opportunities for rain from the middle of next week on......that is one deep trough for this time of the year! 

Here is the rainfall progged over the SE US for the next 8 days.  It does appear that aside from a few showers and storms that may try to bubble up due to the intense heating of the low levels and try to boil up into the very warm air aloft (not easy to do!), there will be little chance for rainfall until the middle to end of next week.  So keep those tomatoes wet!  PA looks to receive less than an 1.0 inch of precip for the next week.  Ouch!  The areas to our south where the dead front will stall creates an area of weakness in the atmosphere and this boundary will serve as a focus for convection, but not for you! 

My wife jokingly speaks of the "umbrella over Etters!"  Well, last evening, the NWS from State College had my immediate area as many of your areas as well under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING.  Well, all the atmosphere could muster for us was a TRACE of rainfall....that's it!  A trace!  I'm sure some of you received a little more based off the radar returns...but a few small drops at that...these drops were puny.  So be sure to keep those plants, especially new plantings, wet during this heat and get out there and do the rain dance to fight off Elaine's nemesis.

There is a tropical storm that may strengthen before it departs ENE away from the coast, but it will be of no help to bring rainfall to the mid-Atlantic states either.  Here is the current satellite depiction of Bret.  He's pretty wimpy....

In closing, it will be warm today and becoming hotter and more humid as the week progresses.  The heat will peak Thursday and Friday.  So get ready for some Lovin Spoonful weather although the country bumpkin seen below has no clue about the city even though the back of his redneck gets dirt and gritty!

Have a great week...it's most certainly a poolside week of weather!

Smitty

AA:  Hot today and getting hotter (maybe 100ºF either Thursday or Friday around here!) with little chance of rain.  Temps will finally fall below 90ºF for highs by Monday I do believe.