Alaskan Cold to Soon Get Involved in Lower 48

Below is directly copied from the NWS in Fairbanks, AK.  The public info statement discusses the severity of the cold present during most of November.  This is the type of cold air that the modeling has a great deal of difficulty in understanding its physical properties, namely in terms of its density.  Thus, modeling underestimates its ultimate role in the weather once it becomes involved with the pattern, especially across the lower 48.  This is one of the reasons I believe that December could become quite cold and stormy, and reading this statement verifies my beliefs for such interesting times to come.  Take a gander.........


PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
247 PM AKST THU NOV 24 2011

RECAP OF THE NOVEMBER 2011 COLD SNAP...

THE RECORD COLD WEATHER HAS ENDED IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA. THE MOST
NOTABLE FEATURE WAS THE EARLY OCCURRENCE OF DEEP COLD RATHER THAN THE
TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES. BETWEEN THANKSGIVING AND VALENTINES DAY
THESE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE UNEXCEPTIONAL.

THIS WAS...BY MOST MEASURES...THE COLDEST EXTENDED PERIOD BEFORE
THANKSGIVING IN MORE THAN A CENTURY OF WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE FAIRBANKS AIRPORT FOR THE WEEK ENDING
NOVEMBER 21ST WAS MINUS 30.1 DEGREES. THIS IS THE COLDEST EARLY
WINTER WEEK OF RECORD. IT WAS NOT THE COLDEST NOVEMBER WEEK. IN
BOTH 1909 AND 1927 THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 24 TO 30TH WAS
CONSIDERATELY COLDER.

SIX DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET AT THE FAIRBANKS
AIRPORT...INCLUDING THE LOWEST TEMPERATURE OF THE COLD SNAP OF
41 BELOW ON THE 17TH. THIS IS THE FIFTH EARLIEST OCCURRENCE OF
40 BELOW OF RECORD. THERE WERE SEVEN CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH A DAILY
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 30 BELOW OR LOWER...THE EARLIEST SUCH
STREAK...BUT NOT A NOVEMBER RECORD.

FOUR DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WERE SET. THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 30 BELOW ON THE 17TH IS THE SECOND EARLIEST
OCCURRENCE OF A DAILY HIGH OF 30 BELOW OR LOWER...THOUGH MORE THAN
A WEEK LATER THAN THE EARLIEST DATE OF NOVEMBER 9TH 1989.

TEMPERATURES IN THE AREA SHOWED A TYPICAL MID-WINTER SPREAD...WITH
THE NORTH POLE AREA CONSIDERABLY COLDER AND THE HILLS CONSIDERABLY
WARMER THAN THE AIRPORT. AT THE NORTH POLE CLIMATE STATION...THE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE WEEK ENDING NOVEMBER 21ST WAS 37.7 BELOW.
THIS INCLUDED SIX DAYS WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BELOW AND A LOW OF
49 BELOW ON THE 17TH. AT THE OTHER EXTREME...THE KEYSTONE RIDGE
CLIMATE STATION...AT 1600 FEET ELEVATION...HAD AN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE THE SAME WEEK OF 13.4 BELOW AND AN ABSOLUTE LOW OF
28 BELOW.

MOST OF THE CLIMATE STATIONS IN THE FAIRBANKS AREA WITH MORE THAN
50 YEARS OF RECORDS SET SIX OR SEVEN DAILY RECORDS. LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR THE COLD SNAP INCLUDE....

EIELSON AFB...................41 BELOW
UNIVERSITY EXPERIMENT FARM....41 BELOW
UAF WEST RIDGE................40 BELOW
Now that is some cold air!  And for those of you planning on attending the AAAA District 3 football final, you'll be greeted quite nicely by King Kold next Saturday evening.  I do believe that the Alaskan cold will begin to integrate itself with the pattern and the fun 'n' games weatherwise will begin and last for most of the month of December!

As for last night's game, CD is coming off an impressive comeback win by scoring 22 unanswered en route to their punching a ticket for the title game.  With the help of a critical penalty with just over 4 minutes to go in the game, the Rams received a new set of downs thanks to a roughing the punter call.  Had the penalty only been a 5 yard incidental, that would have forced the Rams to either punt with a 4th and 2 or go for it around mid-field.  Hard to say what the choice would've been...but the way the Rams were moving the ball, I would've thought coach Mac would have gone for it on 4th down.  Its moot now, and the Rams continued their drive scoring 4 plays later with 2:02 remaining in the game and with a 7 point lead.  Much to the credit of the Central York Panthers, their never say die attitude carried them quickly to the Rams side of the 50 and before you knew it, were well within striking distance of a tying score.  On a 4th and 3 from the Ram 21, the Panthers completed yet another pass, but this one for only 2.75 yards!  Game, set, match for the Rams and a date with the Bulldogs!  It was quite an exciting high school football contest; well played on both sides with only few mistakes and penalties.  I was impressed with the CY Panthers!  Offensive skill players were very talented and on defense, what they lacked in size and strength they made up with speed, athleticism and coaching!  It was a solid football team putting in a solid football effort!  But the Rams held serve and off to Hershey they go!

Enjoy this beautiful warm Saturday!

Smitty

AA:  Discussion of how cold its been in Alaska and a brief discussion of last evening's AAAA District 3 semifinal football game between the CD Rams and the Central York Panthers.

A European Spin on the Upcoming Wild Week of Wx

Seeing that Europe is in the financial news EVERY DAY of recent times, I thought I'd give the Euro some press time as well.  What we will do with this post is focus exclusively on the European model and look at how well it forecasts the upcoming week of weather.  I will post maps for every 2 other day.  Another reason why I am doing this is because its solutions seem to be more plausible with the day to day sensible weather as opposed to our lovely GFS which I believe is completely out of touch with the severity of the cold that is poised to make a run at the Mid-Atlantic specifically and the eastern part of North America in general.  Let's first look at the "initialization" of the atmosphere in terms of the 850 mb temps (colors) and the mean sea level pressure (black lines or isobars).  The initialization is very important in numerical modeling as to this data is what every subsequent action and reaction of the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere will respond.  As you can clearly see, there is our huge area of high pressure over the eastern third of the US providing awesome weather for tonight's AAAA semifinal games in District 3 PIAA football.  This evening's weather will be in completely and total stark contrast to what next week's version of Friday Night Light's will offer!

By Sunday, we can now see our area of high pressure departing eastward into the Atlantic.  This will then allow the weakness or trough from the west to make inroads towards the Mississippi Valley by the early part of next week.  With this deep and energetic trough, the Euro spins up two surface lows; one over the Great Lakes and one down over Dixie rounding the trough.  A front will be slowly grinding its way towards PA Sunday and rain should break out over most of the commonwealth by nightfall.  This rain will be scattered and showery in nature, but quite frankly we need no more rain for awhile!

By Tuesday afternoon, all eyes will be peered towards the Gulf of Mexico as this trough is now really going to work and develop a surface low over the deep south.  How that complex low actually develops and ultimately its path will determine how much rain OR snow we will receive here in PA.  With all of that cold air just to our NW, one must be very wary about the potential synoptic set-up for a potential nor'easter for the middle of next week.  Right now, odds are against that....but we must keep watch!

By Thursday, the action will have moved off to our northeast.  Heavy snow will most certainly be in the cards for the Adirondacks into central and northern New England.  Again, depending upon how the pattern evolves the surface low will have a major impact on how our sensible weather manifests itself for the middle part of next week.  As of this writing, I would venture to say that it appears as if we will have a rain changing to some snow showers scenario as well as some minor lake effect for the northern part of PA.

By next Friday, the cold will be on the move!  Blustery and cold conditions will prevail as the cold air advects SE through the Mid-Atlantic.  Sometime early on Friday, an Arctic front will have passed through delivering the coldest air of the early winter season for next week's high school football games.  A much more impressive lake effect outbreak will be occurring and some of the flurries and snow squalls could make it as far SE as to be seen in the Harrisburg area.  With that tight pressure gradient to our north, blustery will be the operative wx word next Friday with wind chills mainly in the teens and 20s for PA!

By the end of next weekend, more cold air is poised to move into the eastern part of the states.  The passing shot of cold for Friday into Saturday will be lifting out; however, note the Arctic high located over Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan.  That burly high means business and is of true Arctic origin.  Only time will tell how that affects our weather here in the eastern part of the US.  And that will be a different story for a different day!

In closing, the Euro zone modeling looks to have a clue for this pattern that is becoming very active and stormy for locales in our latitudes.  Climatologically, it is that time!  Unfortunately, it does look like the Euro zone has a clue as to how to manage their spending, entitlement programs, and ultimately their debt...I just hope the US is not in that chain of dominoes!

Enjoy the remainder of your holiday weekend!

Smitty

AA:  Very nice weather Friday, Saturday.  Transition through Monday with showers.  Very unsettled through mid-week.  Major cold front passes through Friday ushering in winter like weather for next weekend!  Let's hope Euro rightens their ship someway, somehow!

Thanks for High Pressure at All Levels

Just a very brief posting this beautiful Thanksgiving morning prior to our visit for the breaking of bread with family from Lancaster County.  I'm just showing the progs for 7 pm this Thanksgiving night at all levels of the atmosphere based off the GFS.  First the surface:

And now the 850 mb level, ~1 mile above the surface.  Those 8C temps will support maxes today in the upper 50s!  Although the air temp might be a few degrees cooler in Detroit, the mood will be much warmer as the Pack will not cover their 4.5 for today's opener.  Heck, the Lions may win this one outright!

With the humidity so low at 700 mb, evening star gazing with a cup of warm drink at halftime of this evenings 49ers-Ravens game might be in order.  Heck, parley that warm drink with the 49ers getting 3.5 points and you'll be styling!  I believe the wrong team is getting points in that game.

The 500 mb ridge is poking its way into PA...take a look.

Only the jet stream has a hint of "strong" NW flow...and that is stretching it as the greatest winds are well to our north!  Also a stretch, but I'd lay the 7 and take Dallas this afternoon.  That's hard for me to say being an Eagles fan...

However, as we all know, all good things must come to an end.  Here is the GFS ensemble means for next weekend.  That is a deep trough coming into the east.  Enjoy this warmth while y'all can!  If a CD-CV rematch is in order for next Friday evening, prepare to bring your woollies. 

Happy Thanksgiving y'all!

Smitty

AA:  Obviously nice wx today, some NFL picks, and the warmth is short lived through the weekend. 

Snowy Thanksgivings

This is just a quick post to share an outstanding video clip about the climatology surrounding winter weather and the Thanksgiving holiday in PA.  The video below was first presented 2 years ago on Weather World, a nightly 15 minute television broadcast originating from University Park, PA discussing everything weather, by Dr. Jon Nese.  Dr. Nese earned his undergraduate degree from PSU and later his graduate and doctorate as well from Penn State.  Each Wednesday, Dr. Nese discusses a timely and unique facet of the weather.  Tonight he discussed snowy Thanksgivings in PA.  Below is a 3 minute broadcast very close to what was presented in an updated fashion this evening.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Smitty

AA:  Check out the video about snowy Thanksgivings.

The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly

First, the good:  The sensible wx for Thanksgiving into Saturday dominated by high pressure.  That is the easy part!

Now the bad: The more things change, the more they stay the same.  With that deep moisture fetch from the tropical Pacific, I was concerned about flooding rains in our area.  My concerns were quickly verified early Tuesday as I was traipsing through the woods of the Michaux Forest.  What I was believing would be a few scattered showers until noonish quickly evolved into a steady moderate to at times heavy rain.  Ziggy looked like a drowned otter while Zola appeared like a drowned rat; however, they were both loving life.  Treeing a groundhog, chasing an unsuspecting deer, all the while terrorizing any chipmunk or squirrel unfortunate enough to not have taken shelter in a rock pile or nook in a hollowed out fallen log.  The trail was swamped and the tiny forest streams became challenging rock-hops with the rainfall.  Here are some river situations as of the this writing:

Yellow Breeches...

Swatara Creek...

Conodoguinet Creek...

Sherman Creek...

And that is following a dry November for the 1st couple weeks!  Here at my humble abode, I received 2.39 inches of rainfall from 6 am Tuesday up until this writing.  So, what else is new as we are now approaching 70" of rainfall for 2011!  Unbelievable!!!  Global warming I'm sure to blame!

Now the ugly:  These are some ugly progs from the GFS for next week early and then next weekend.  The pattern is certainly changing and with that comes numerous forecasting challenges.  Whenever the upper air is progged to be so convoluted, we have issues.  Take a look at these model's depictions for next week.  Highly amplified is an understatement!

First 500 mb vorticity (spin or energy if you will)...

Now the jet stream as shown by the 300 mb chart for next Wednesday...

And the same jet for next weekend, now that is one deep trough!

This trough will allow the cold air that has been bottled up in O Canada and Alaska to this point.  It now will have a mechanism to advect SE towards the lower 48.  And it is quite cold...here are the 850 mb temps progged for next weekend.  They are ugly if not accompanied with winter's white! 

And that is a different story for a different day...So there you be; the good, the bad, and the ugly! 

Have a great Thanksgiving holiday!

Smitty

AA:  The rain is basically over.  Now the wx improves through Saturday.  Begins to get unsettled and potentially wild beginning later Sunday into next week.  Very difficult forecast for early next week, but then getting much colder later half of next week.  The District 3 AAAA football final on Dec 2 looks to be held in quite cold conditions!





Beautiful Thanksgiving Weekend and then...?

After this damp and downright wet pre-Thanksgiving period, the Thanksgiving holiday weekend looks to be beautiful for late November weather.  Temperatures will moderate from a rather breezy and cool Turkey Day to above normal for the weekend.  The progged surface map from HPC shows that a large area of high pressure will dominate the wx over the eastern US through the weekend.  Here is the map for Friday; no wx issues for high school playoff football this upcoming Friday night to be sure!

Before we get to that point, however, we have to receive our obligatory moderate to heavy rain event for this month.  Seeing that we are living through the wettest year as recorded officially at KMDT, why should November be a below normal month in terms of precip?  We could be looking at close to 2 inches of rain when all is said and done by Wednesday morning; the heaviest of the rainfall coming overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.  There is mucho energy with this system as evidenced by the thunderstorms breaking out over eastern TX at this time (see blue circle).  There is also a deep moisture feed from the tropical Pacific (red arrow) adding plentiful water vapor for our obligatory heavy rain event for this month.  Take a look...

HPC paints a widespread area of 1.25" rainfall over PA with amounts over 2.0" not too awfully distant from KMDT!  It would not be out of the question to hear thunder sometime overnight into Wednesday in our parts.  There is ample energy to support such convection with a strong jet flying overhead.

Then our attention will shift to the end of the weekend where the modeling is difficult to ascertain to say the least.  Both the Euro and GFS are depicting a powerful trough to dig deep into the eastern US.  How the sensible weather plays out is impossible to determine at this point.  I do believe that there will be a severe wx outbreak in the southeast US, say AL, GA, MS, or even SC.  But this is one deep trough creating a cutoff low over the lower Ohio Valley.  Unsettled weather will be in place from late Sunday into Tuesday and possibly beyond depending on how progressive the trough is.  Here is the deep trough as shown by the Euro...

And now the GFS...

And the upper air support for the development of above storminess from the GFS...

The above map shows that there is plenty of energy and vorticity remaining to create a secondary storm system somewhere in the Gulf Coast states or the waters of the southeast Atlantic coast and get pulled northward once the cold air becomes established.  If that occurs, we are looking at a substantial snowfall for somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic and/or Northeast early next week.  Even HPC's prog for next Monday shows the potential of a "triple point" low forming somewhere in the vicinity of Cape Hatteras; only time will tell.  With that high pressure over Quebec, things could get interesting...

As for the very short term, the light rain, drizzle, fog and dampness creates a unique quiet in Penn's Woods.  Few creatures scurry about, except those disturbed by my 2 hounds gallivanting wildly about, loving life in the Michaux Forest!  Unfortunately, vistas are obscured by the clouds, but the softness and the stillness of the forest persists without the dry crunching of leaf litter or twigs snapping underfoot.  Eerily peaceful in the woods!  While driving back to my warm and dry abode, with a hot cup of coffee in tote, I listen to the words of John Denver's "Rocky Mountain High".  That's a great tune and the lyrics from the 4th verse are awesome, perfect for a Thanksgiving week reflection for all of us...especially those of us who love and respect nature and spend quality time outdoors.  Here are those words and a video of John Denver performing on the Tonight Show from 1972 his fairly well-known song:

Now he walks in quiet solitude the forest and the streams
Seeking grace in every step he takes
His sight has turned inside himself to try and understand
The serenity of a clear blue mountain lake

Have an outstanding Thanksgiving holiday!

Smitty

AA:  Wet through Wednesday (possibly 2.0"+ but 1.25" is much more likely), then clearing, breezy and coolish for Turkey Day, becoming warmer through the weekend.  Then watching the wx get wild for early next week.  Happy Thanksgiving my friend.

The Pattern...It Is a-Changin'

With sincere apologies to singer/songwriter Bob Dylan, the pattern; it is a-changin'!  I'd like to quickly state why I believe the hounds of winter of getting ready to pounce south and east, probably by the first week of December.  We have enjoyed a rather serene and placid November to this point, and frankly with the little bump in the November road this mid-week, November 2011 will be one that was easy to take!  Sure, we had some cold mornings, but the afternoons often rebounded nicely with daytime maxes frequently achieving above normal status.   So let me quickly explain why I believe the pattern, it is a-changin'.

First, there is a prolific amount of intense cold available to mix into the pattern as Alaska has been suffering its coldest November in recent memory.  How does -40ºF sound for Fairbanks, AK.  By the way that would also be -40ºC since that is the only place on both commonly used temp scales where they express the same numerical value and heat energy quantity...sorry I again digress.  But that is some serious cold and that dense low level air is going to sooner than later get involved with this pattern!  Take a look at the cold in our 49th state!  The map is for next Monday.  During the last 3 weeks or so, the Polar Vortex has been established over AK with no signs of moving.  It is now appearing to indicate movement to the SE while the pool of warmer than normal air is advecting eastward towards Greenland.  If you are a lover of winter weather, this is a good sign.

Secondly, the ensembles in the medium range are all convoluted and far from agreement.  This is often the case, especially in the winter when the cold dense air is seldom handled properly by the numerical modeling.  These mathematicians and physicists who design and program these models are clearly incredible intellectuals, however, binary number crunching has not yet been able to adequately model the movement of extremely cold, dense air.  That is why the AO and NAO are so scattered in their ensemble progs as seen below.  Here the NAO progs...look at the control and how it tanks!  Good news if you like winter...

As does the AO....

And remember; the trend is your friend.  The last 4 runs have the AO dropping off a cliff once to next weekend!

Third, the snow cover is quickly increasing in the northern hemisphere.  Take a look for yourselves.  The anomalous amount of snow and ice is quickly increasing when compared to the last 10 years in our hemisphere...and we all know that winning breeds winning (CD) and snow breeds snow!

Here is a graphic representation of the extensive snow and ice cover as of Saturday, November 19, 2011.  That Alaskan cold will be able to slide right down into the lower 48 without much modification of its lack of heat energy properties; thus another supporting reason for my contention that winter is knock, knock, knockin' on central PA's door......so sorry Bob!

Lastly, whenever a major amplification of the jet stream occurs, this is the atmosphere's way to announce a pattern regime change!  In America, we have numerous debates, quarreling within Congress, demonstrations in the streets prior to a regime change (one can only hope...), but in the atmosphere a major buckling of the jet stream often announces a major pattern change.  And I believe this map below qualifies as a meaningful and substantial amplification of the jet!  Look at that contorted creature for next weekend!  With this configuration, I believe Highway 61 might be revisited with winter's worst...even all the way down to Dixie...once again, sorry Mr. Dylan!  Wow!

So that is my story and I'm sticking to it.  December looks to become cold and potentially stormy sooner rather than later.  For those of you who are lovers of winter storms, December most certainly holds potential.  I actually believe, dare I say, that a White Christmas in these parts looks likely!  For those that don't like winter weather events, you can hope that once again my thesis for the upcoming month proves worthless...and about as insightful as drafting a fantasy football team with the 3 worst QBs (or so it seems) this year.  Heck, Tebow would have been a better choice than my guys...but that is a different story for a different day.  So with my occassional referencing to Mr. Dylan above, I thought I'd leave y'all with this ditty from 1964 and still quite relevant in today's world....enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  It looks to me for numerous reasons that December will turn cold and stormy; probably within the 1st week of December!