The afternoon run of the Euro would have you believe so...take a look.
Saturday afternoon:
Sunday afternoon:
Monday afternoon:
And this is large dome of cold dry air for early October. Take a look at the modeled lows for Monday am...
It's also interesting to note that TS Nicole and Cat 4 Matthew (current winds 140 mph) seem to be interacting on the global model to some extent. Basically, TS Nicole will remain somewhat stationary and slowly weaken while the NHC is continuing with Matthew's trek up the east coast. Take a look at the latest 5 pm advisory from NHC...
So there still remains great uncertainty in the ultimate path of Matthew and its effects along the east coast. Here is a total rainfall model for our immediate region by late Sunday if the progressive GFS is correct...
And if we don't get much precip from this tropical system, well, it's gonna be dry it appears again in these parts. Compare the above precip graphic to the one below which adds another 10 days of precip; not much difference!
So, in closing, still much uncertainty with the final resolution of this system. It most definitely bears watching for any and all interests along the east coast from Miami to Maine. That Euro operational solution is quite unique and perplexing; powerful hit along the FL east coast for a couple days, then loops around to rain out over the state 5 days later...
It gets to its position shown below by doing a nice little loop off the Florida coast in the South Atlantic; very strange...I'll be looking forward to the overnight run to see if it resolves this system in that strange manner again...?
Okay...gotta get ready for the AL Wildcard game. Let's Go Os!
Smitty
AA: Much uncertainty in track of this major hurricane. What's not uncertain is that Haiti is experiencing a disastrous natural catastrophe on top of the powerful earthquake from 6 years ago that is exacting quite a toll of human hardship.
