Refreshing Reversal

Just a very quick update as to what next week might have in store for us.  I believe we are now looking at a major temperature and air mass reversal by next weekend.  Here is the "high tide" of heat and humidity for this weekend according to the GFS ensembles...

But by next Saturday, the upper air pattern completely reverses with a deep trough over the Ohio Valley and a ridge out west.  Many of the members create a cut-off upper low that will once again create a lengthy time of unsettled weather here in PA as it migrates eastward from the Ohio Valley during the course of next weekend.

Here is the operational run of the GFS for next Saturday.  Note the upper low centered over WV and western PA...with a negatively tilted trough!  If only this were January!

Here is the surface map for the same time...with the red line showing the temps at one mile up being ~10ºC...that would keep temps in the low 70s for us at the surface...

We might actually be looking at a somewhat dreary time of it next Friday-Sunday or somewhere in that time period.  Here is the GFS' read on total precip during the 60 hour period...you can clearly see the results of the line of showers and thunderstorms that will accompany the frontal passage that runs from Michigan to Mizzou...another major maxima of precip is centered just off to our east...

A large area from Texas to Toledo will be experiencing much below normal temps for next weekend...and we here in PA, somewhat below the norm...a clear reversal from this weekend!

So enjoy this warm and humid summery weekend that we celebrate not only as the traditional 1st weekend of summer, but much more importantly, a Decoration Day, a day of remembrance for those who have died in our nation's service and protecting our freedoms which are far too often taken for granted!

Smitty

AA:  This weekend very warm and humid; summer-like.  Next weekend...not so much!

Warm and Humid For Memorial Day Weekend

This is about as summery as we can get for the end of May in these parts.  Oh sure, it can get warmer, but the nighttime mins will be very mild due to the high humidity in the air.  Here is both the NAM and the GFS prog for the highest dew points over the weekend...which looks to be Saturday.  Yellow puts us in the dew point range near 70ºF.

Here is the max temps for Sunday...mid to upper 80s look to be in store.  I believe Monday will surpass 90ºF!  Clearly the hottest temps will be out over the Mississippi Valley.  You can also see the "cooler" temps along the Carolinas as a tropical system gets its act together for a possible strange landfall coming in from the northeast!

And the last 2 graphics show the max temps for Monday, Memorial Day.  Note the cooler temps over northern PA as some thunderstorms are developed over the north country and keep temps down!

Here is that rainfall that develops....although I'm not totally sold on that solution....I believe most of Memorial Day will be dry from rainfall!

So that is a very brief synopsis of this upcoming week's end!  Enjoy...and please remember our reasons for celebrating Memorial Day!

Smitty

AA:  Warm and very humid this Memorial Day weekend!

Hot Memorial Day Weekend

This upcoming Memorial Day weekend will be HOT!  I just want to post a few graphics indicating this.  The first is the forcasted 850 mb temps for next Monday afternoon...downright hot at the surface if this verifies!

Now the surface map actually shows some form of convection developing (thunderstorms) for the 6 hour period ending Monday evening...and that is not out of the question.  However, I do believe that convection will be limited until the frontal system out to the west will advance eastward towards PA.

The 700 mb relative humidity is quite low and thus the air would need to really work at saturating the column for precip to occur without any decent forcing to lift the air.  The buoyant heated air will most certainly rise, but the moisture is not too deep!

And we are protected with the 500 mb high pressure system as seen below...so in my opinion, convection will be hard pressed to fire on Memorial Day.

According to the GFS, Monday will be the warmest day from normal...~15ºF+!  Toasty!

And the warmest 7 day period will end on Wednesday...so a cold front will be coming through to knock temps down back to normal and even ever so slightly below normal.....

So close, but yet so far....it would've been beautiful the other way! 

I Like Dreaming....some say this had to do with my purple shirt I sported today!  I like to think of it as just missing 2 sizable wagers on The Derby and The Preakness.  I'll get back in the saddle for The Belmont!  I'll spare you the Aerosmith version of Back in the Saddle.....

Enjoy your mid-week.....and go Rams Baseball.....

Smitty

AA:  Increasingly more summer-like as the weekend progresses!  Downright hot Sunday/Monday!