Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Humor me for just a few paragraphs...and for those of you who want to know just about the sensible weather...just skip down to the AA at the end of this post...but I have a theory, and I would truly like your thoughts in return. I think the numerical modeling of the atmosphere has become too good! What I mean is that every little minutia of detail is now incorporated and thus leads to wilds swings in the outcome of the initialization of the input of the atmospheric data. Personally, I'm a pattern recognition guy...and what happened before will likely happen again. I'll not bore y'all with the maps, but ALL of the global models have gone from 12"+ snows to 2"+ rains and just a bit in between for the unsettled weather that WILL manifest itself next week. As for the computer modelers...I have the utmost respect for what they do; essentially build the atmosphere at multiple levels into a binary yes/no equation. Trust me...I have no desire to venture into that realm coming from a guy whose last comp sci class at PSU involved IBM punch cards and you better be damned sure they were in the correct order...enough said. Okay...so what's the weather Smitty?
Darn Nice Saturday! You best enjoy it! The graphic below supports my position that modeling is detailing too much...note the lower temps along the colder Susq River... pretty darn good for a global model! But, Sat will be the nicest, I believe of the next 10!
And here is why I say that...a constant trough into the eastern part of the US for the next several days/weeks...You have a trough that deep with a ridge that maxed in BC...watch out below...just plain wintry ugliness; rain, sleet, freezing rain, snow...you get the pic...UGLY you ain't got no alibi...the 500 mb pattern is UGLY!
I will not show snow maps...but I will show precip maps. Keep in mind that some will be dendrites, some ice pellets, some liquid sunshine...personally, I like it all! But Wednesday am will be UGLY across all of PA...and this system is juicy...Again, note the incredible resolution of the enhanced precip over the warmer Bay near Baltimore...can't wait for Os baseball...Let's Go O's!
Once I have a more definitive answer for y'all, I will issue something forthwith. I do truly appreciate all of your personal comments and am humbled by the fact that you value my opine about this inconceivable system that we try to analyze called the atmosphere and the wx! Honestly...I liked IBM punch cards. Times were simpler. My wife even states so many times that she was born late...I could see us hanging out with the Ingalls near that little house on the prairie...
Time to run...actually sleep so I can "run" at the gym tomorrow. Running for me consists of lifting fast (deadlifts and squats) and then cardio on the arc trainer...it's a good endorphin rush!
Enjoy your week's end! Oh yeah...tunes...I've been on an Eagles kick of late and IV shared with me his "4" favs of the Eagles...so just "Four" him...another Eagles tune to sign off...one of my favs as well!
Enjoy the week's end...I know I will in spite of that pesky wave of cloudiness/spittyness later Sunday; trust me Saturday will be nice!
Smitty
AA: Love Sat wx... because it simply gets ugly and uglier once again from that point forward into the medium and longer range! March looks cold...sorry Z!
As I sit here and evaluate the synoptics of next week, the general pattern is fairly easy to depict. An upper air trough in the east; a ridge in the western portion of the continent...take a look...
The orangish colors over the west have led to a warmer and drier S California and the deserts of the SW. In fact, Phoenix set a record for its earliest 90°F for the calendar year earlier this week. Personally, I believe that the blue colors over Hudson Bay will "phase" more strongly with the low heights over the deep south and create a rather potent surface disturbance which will travel north and east up along the natural baroclinic zone of the coastal interface. In fact, for those of you who are rooting on a snow storm, be concerned that a stronger phase will pull the surface storm further inland allowing for a wet event in these parts as marine air would invade the piedmont. A lesser phase will allow for the coastal commute for the low pressure system and generate yet another major snowfall in these parts. IT'S JUST TOO EARLY TO CALL! In fact, the 51 runs of the Euro ensemble are quite confused...check it out...
As per the Euro, temperature is not an issue with this event for the precip type, nor is it with the even weaker GFS, which has been as convicted with a solution as an eligible bachelor is looking for his "flavor of the week"! Sorry...I needed a metaphor for this flip-floppy GFS which is so often frustrating. Take a look at the "warmest" 850 mb temps for the event next week...
There is plenty of time to scrutinize next week; let's enjoy the potential 60°F temps we may experience Saturday under sunny skies...here is the temp modeled for Saturday pm...the yellowish colors are 60°F+...
OK...gotta go...just trying to keep everyone updated on this endless siege of moisture from the deep tropics which is often encountering stubborn cold air both here at the surface and aloft. Personally, I believe this pattern will last well into the middle of March. Sorry, Z! But as a tradeoff, once the pattern switches...spring will be coming on gangbusters with a warmer and drier than normal spring I do believe...we will see?!?!
I'll leave y'all with this...in memory of one of my favorite musicians (group) which has nothing to do with the weather other than we can all love a little CA weather from time to time. (At the time of this LAX is reporting 64F with a 50F dew point and a wind off the Pacific at 12 mph...) Enjoy!
Enjoy your Friday and even more so your week's end...
Smitty
AA: Watching yet another winter storm potential next week after a mild/warm weekend.
