Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Over the past week, I have evolved quickly from "Doubting Dennis" through my ambivalent stage of "Nervous Nellie" to a now just less than certain "Likely Louie". As most of y'all know, this is my hobby; to peruse the weather systems not just around our region, but across the CONUS and for that part, anomalous weather across the globe. I was seeing the teleconnections from the Pacific Ocean hinting at a return to winter for a period here in March (MJO, EPO)..."O" in those previous abbv. represent oscillation where there are well known swings of a back-forth nature in the oceans and subsequently in the atmosphere as well. For our sensible weather in these parts, simply think of it as warm-cold-warm-cold for the winter months. But when these swings occur at the end of winter, major storm systems can fire. I believe we have one waiting to spin up early next week...Here we go...I'll start y'all with what you want; accumulations from the models. I'll show just the GFS this time as it has been rock solid for the last several runs; not that the Euro hasn't been, but the GFS a tiny bit more consistent...
If you look very closely, that 2' spot in York County is close to where our humble abode sits! Anyway, analog weather forecasting is one of many tools to help predict future weather systems; take a snap shot of the atmospheric conditions from surface to stratosphere and compare the physical conditions to those of the past and let the computers sort through the myriad of data to determine the outcome of those initial conditions "x" number of days later. Well, I will share with you the top 3 analogs from late this afternoon for early next week...Drumroll...First...#1; March 18, 2007...
Looks reasonable with the exception that coastal ME had a changeover which limited snow accumulations. Also, the overall amount of precipitable water looks to be less than what I believe will be made available early next week. Number 2...February 15, 2014...
This also is quite believable; however, just a tad too much snowfall down into the Smokies, but keep in mind, we are 1 month later than this analog. A solid 1-2' through our immediate region...now #3...this anaolg just keeps showing up through all of the different time frames as well; never a top dog, but always within the top 5 analogs...the infamous March 1993! A fully phased longitudinal planetary wave...I just get the heebie-jeebies typing that! Essentially the arctic branch, the polar branch, and the sub-tropical branch of the jet stream all come together and play nicely together. Clearly a difficult task; but not impossible. (In fact, THREE branches of the jet stream are far more likely to work together than TWO PARTIES in our government.) Sorry...just needed to be said. That solution is certainly on the table, but I personally believe that happens about 3-4 times a century climatologically. But come to think about it, 1993 was nearly a quarter century ago...? Just sayin'...
The March 1993 nor'easter is the Number 1 NESIS (Northeast Snowfall Impact Scale) system of all time. Take a look...I remember that weekend like it was yesterday complete with sleet, thundersnow, and an entire week to get things back to normalcy due to the brutal cold that followed! Again, I'm not saying that is this sytem next week, but it is certainly a possibility...
OK...I've hyped this enough for this evening. Stay tuned. Thanks for reading...And I'll leave y'all with a different story for a different type of snow...most are familiar with Clapton's take so I'll share Jackson Browne's lyric...enjoy at least the tune...
Smitty
AA: Watching and waiting on our biggest snowfall for the 2016-17 cold season. COULD be a doozy. Double digits for many in/around our area.
"Whoa Nellie!" I always loved that call...in the fall watching college football with Keith Jackson, not approaching the middle of March with spring on everyone's minds. But by March 15...beware the "Ides of March", that is just what we might be yelling in these parts!
As I arrived home this glorious Wednesday afternoon, temps in the low 60s, a beautiful bloom of croci which just popped greeted me outside my front door. With the recent rains and the slowly becoming potent March sun, these beauts made their statement about the potential weather.
I'm sorry to say that a "Crocus Crusher" just may be in store for these guys...and I'm not talking about our 4-legged kids Ziggy and Zola. Or possibly a "Jonquil Quasher" for these radiant flowers below...forgive me, but it is difficult to utilize alliteration with "Jonquil" without my lovely language arts instructor sitting somewhere nearby...so any insights from y'all would be helpful...Russ!
OK...enough with the foofoo Smitty...what's the weather going to be like? Well, the easy part of the upcoming week is the invasion of a solid arctic air mass commencing Friday and slowly retreating by the middle to end of next week. Here is a pic of the 5 day means (ensembles) at 1 mile up from Saturday morning to Wednesday morning...Brrrrr! Or as I told a colleague today...Grrrrrr! All maps henceforth will be the Euro; however, all of the modeling is coming into solid agreement!
The first alarm will be sounded late Thursday into Friday with the cold advecting into our region just as a kink in the upper air traverses through PA along the PA turnpike. This will usher in the arctic air from the northlands as a white carpet will be spread on the earth for the entrance of "King Kold". Daytime maxes will struggle to reach freezing both days over the weekend! Frankly, this will be the coldest air since mid-December! In fact, if we do have any significant snow cover on the ground for Sunday morning, we may reach our lowest temp of the entire winter! Unreal! Here is the progged forecast for the "white carpet" by Friday...
The amounts above look reasonable, but these are 10:1 ratios. Looking at the 850 mb temps while the snow is falling, the dendrite production may be maximized as the colder temps will allow for a higher ratio snowfall. But 3" looks ok to me. The next wave gets suppressed far to our south since the kold is king and steers the wimpy clipper system off to the south...here's a map for my Carolina "Querriers"...just a note, the GFS is even more bullish on a heavier swath in the same location the Euro below is indicating...just an FYI...
But for us, the real fun 'n' games will be Monday night into Tuesday! As I've mentioned to many people the last several days, in a pattern like this with a deep and aggressive trough digging into the east, the "caboose" can sometimes be a dandy. While I'm not suggesting a "crippling" snowfall (Yokes), I do believe that the caboose will shut down some parts of the east this upcoming Tuesday...The map below is a 24 hour total of snowfall ending Tuesday evening.
OK...I've depressed you seekers of spring enough. So let me pick up your spirits with this ditty! We sat in New Orleans one evening at a piano bar while this one pianist simply stole the audience with his rendition of this song. It was rather appropriate as that evening, it poured with heavy rain, thunder, wind, and even sleet reported at the Louis Armstrong airport! Enjoy and stay tuned!
Smitty
AA: A major change in wx pattern. It turns to January the weekend we "spring" our clocks forward 1 hour from standard time to saving time. Looking at a nuisance to slightly disruptive snow Friday morning to possibly a plowable and very disruptive snowfall of ~6"+ on Tuesday; possibly our most wintry 5-7 day period of the entire winter!
