Wintry Weather For Next Several Days

Today, as most of you are now aware, will be a snowfall of a "piddly proportion", but a snowfall nonetheless!  We are looking at ~1-2" here in the KMDT area with the bulk of it fall between the hours of 2-4 pm or so....take a look at the plumes which are in nice agreement.  I do believe the NWS will go with a winter wx advisory by their late morning shift....just my opinion....

Thursday will be nice for February...a seasonable day.  Friday will become cloudy by afternoon with an approaching Arctic Front.  Overnight Friday into Saturday, there will be a brief snowfall accompanying the Arctic front, but the wintry weather will be the cold with possibly our coldest temps Sunday night Monday morning if we have fresh snow on the ground from the Arctic Frontal passage.....

OK...sorry for the brevity...gotta go!  Be careful this afternoon as a brief burst of snow will occur in the mid-afternoon.....

Smitty

AA:  Brief snow Wed pm...and then waiting for the Arctic Front for the Saturday morning!  Go Rams Wrestling!

RINOs, DINOs, and WINOs

What do Mitt Romney, Senator Joe Manchin (WV), and the winter of 2011-12 all have in common?  They are associated with their respective affiliations IN NAME ONLY.  As many of you are fully aware, Mitt Romney has numerous political ideals that are far more moderate than many of the planks of the conservative Republicans or dare I now say, the "Tea-Partiers".  That is also the case of Senator Joe Manchin of WV who has more often voted with the Republicans than his own Democratic leadership in the Senate!  Romney, some say a RINO, and Manchin, some calling him a DINO, and the Winter of 2011-12...our current winter season...which is simply a WINO or Winter In Name Only! 

Look at this data:

December:  38.9ºF  while normal should be 34.6ºF
January:  34.3ºF while normal should be 30.3ºF
February:  42.3ºF while normal through 1st 4 days should be 30.3ºF

Here is a graphic look at the last 31 days of temperatures for KMDT!  There were only 5 days where temps in the last 31 days fell into the below normal range!  Yes...it's been quite mild! 

It's also been snowless as well.  4.6" of snow to date if you don't count the Halloween snow!  That is a pathetic excuse for a Harrisburg snowfall season.  Here is a graphic look at our last 27 years of snowfall at KMDT...

And a map of "normal" snowfall for PA...

This week promises to be at or above normal...AGAIN!  Take a look at the 7 day running mean for this upcoming week.  To explain, this is a forecast of temps compared to what they should be for this upcoming week.  6-9ºF is quite the deviation from normal...more $$ savings as less heating costs are needed.  But note the blue in TX.  That is the potential "storm" for us late this week into the weekend.

Clearly, there is some potential for a widespread major event with the 500 mb pattern setting up as seen below.  Again, I circled in red the areas that must "phase" and join their respective energies in order to spin up a snowstorm for us here in the east.  The potential is there; will the match and the gas be united?  We will see...

One thing to be sure is that the period from Feb 10 to Feb 17 will be much colder than this upcoming week.  That is some serious cold that will slide SE into the eastern part of the US once this trough digs south.  Next weekend does have the potential to be a very wintry time...

But the core of the gelid air will still remain well north of the lower 48 as seen in the day 10 GFS' temps...so maybe one week of winter is what we will get this year with the WINO of 2011-12!  That is a broad SW flow aloft with a "Bermuda High" sitting off the east coast of the US.  That actually is a classic ice storm signature with cold air holding at the surface and light overrunning precip falling into the cold surface air.  Way to early to speculate on something like that, but the bottom line is that once that trough moves through, the cold does not look to hold and Pacific air seems to want to dominate the US once again!  However, with the deep cold just to our north, any precip must be carefully monitored for snow and ice potential.

The experimental re-forecast of the 500 mb ensembles for the medium range does not look too threatening either for a prolonged bout of winter wx here in the eastern US.  It does show however a "split" flow across the lower 48 with the lower heights out over the desert SW...and there is a saying about a split flow...it's a wx man's woe!  These are often tricky patterns to time and analyze.  When looking at that map below, if you could simply move the blue areas to the east by about 500 miles, it would spell trouble through the month of February...

To date, this WINO has not been to hard to take.  Even when there was a good potential for a light wintry event, the precip fell apart as it moved east into the dry air that was in place over PA.  Here is the dying radar returns as of early Sunday morning.  Just not enough moisture to fight through the dry air at the surface.  And no real organization to the moisture that gave the plains states quite a snowfall over the last 24-36 hours.

And the Snow-Ice-Rain radar from Accu-Wx...

Here is the snow that fell over the plains the last day or so...it was a major event from Colorado into western Iowa.

But not so much here in the east as has been the case during this WINO.  We may not see another "snowless" winter like this for 100 years...or it could happen again next year.  It's just crazy how the wx patterns play out over time.  Thus the need to examine "normals" which are more accurately 30 year averages.  Running means are also used extensively to look for anomolies.  And thinking of extraordinary, how about FIVE consecutive District 3 titles.  That is what the CD Ram wrestling machine has accomplished this weekend...FIVE STRAIGHT D3 titles...Wow!  Since 2002, it has been either CD or CV as the D3 champ with LD crashing the wrestling party in 2007.  CV and Dallastown have made 17 appearances in the D3 tourney, but to win 5 straight is astounding!  In addition, 93 straight dual meet PIAA wins and counting.  We may not see something like this again in 100 years.  Let's see...100 years, five...reminds me of Five for Fighting and the 2003 prolific piano hit song.  Enjoy....

...and enjoy your Super Sunday!

Smitty

AA:  Poor excuse for winter thus far.  Another mild week upcoming.  Looking for a storm possibility this weekend.  It will be colder the next 7 days beginning this Friday.  A genuine congrats to the CD Wrestling program for 5 straight D3 titles!