As I sit here this overcast but very mild Wednesday afternoon, I'm seeing a gradual switch of the jet stream thanks to the powerful storm that passed through last Sunday and another to sail through the Great Lakes on Thursday. These 2 systems are dragging enough warm and humid air north to help manipulate the jet in such a way that the mean trough or colder air will now be focused more in the eastern part of the North America. So if you can, enjoy this anomalous warmth the next 36 hours because November will take no quarter for the mild air trying to escape to help balance this zero sum game we call earth's heat balance. Please let me help with some graphics...
First, here is the 24 hour temperature change from Thursday morning to Friday morning. Also understand, that a gusty wind will accompany this, so temps will feel very chilly compared to what we have recently been experiencing! That "Barney purple" is ~30°F colder than Thursday morning at sunrise! Hot-lanta...um...not so much!
And I mentioned the winds. Well, the strong WNW winds that will usher in November from O Canada will be clearly evident and well announced with the passing of a strong cold front. Many might get awakened Friday early morning to the howling of air through the leaf filled trees that still are plenty in our area. Two maps; first, the precipitable water (moisture content available for rain/snow in a column of air near the earth's surface) for Thursday afternoon when a solid drenching will be occurring compared to the passing of the front with much colder and easily depicted drier air!
Thursday pm...might even have some thunder in these parts with that amount of atmospheric fuel known as water vapor!
But then very early November just past the witching hour...all the saints will be broadcasting their arrival via atmospheric phenomena and reminding us of who they are...and that proclamation will be heard all of the way down to the gulf coast!
Along with that front, much colder air will be ushered in for at least the first half of November. Here is the 1st 7 days of the 11th month...remember, I like to view the 1 mile up temps to get a feel of how the atmosphere is pushing.
And the 2nd week of November..."Barney purple" starting to reappear once again!
And although I titled this "First Flakes", I do not believe any accumulating snow will be in these parts the next couple of weeks, but certainly in the high ground of PA and in the favored lake effect regions, I certainly believe you'll see accumulations. And I also believe that many of us around KMDT will see some flakes around...but that's not so out of the ordinary now is it?
In fact, here is the climate model for November. That's actually darn chilly; good Thanksgiving cooking weather!
OK...I'm out. Looking forward to seeing the Nats win the World Series tonight! Yes, here's hoping the National League East representative can take the cheese! Just think, they started off something like 19-31 through May 23! Unreal! Baseball is a marathon. As for the song, not sure? I could do the monster mash for Halloween but that's not me. How about just some good folksy rock and roll about this time of year although the "harvest moon" will be well hidden the next several days...
Link to Song There were some website glitches on blogger so simply click on the link for many of my readers' favorite part of the blog!
Enjoy...and enjoy your All Hallow's Eve; an astronomical cross-quarter day marking the halfway point between the autumnal equinox and the winter solstice. That sun angle is surely getting low!
Smitty
AA: Strong cold front to push through giving ~1.5 inches of rain, then blustery and much colder Friday. Winds will slacken, but still chilly this weekend. November looks to be colder than normal; the 1st half quite chilly compared to the normals...
