Records, Rain, & Reality

As the post title suggests, (and of which most of you are quite aware), we have just experienced a stint of record breaking warmth over the eastern part of the country.  And, again as most are aware, rain is in the short term forecast.  Lastly, back to reality for the last week of March.  Let me expound on each "R".

Binghamton, NY just had a SEVEN day stretch of record warm temps as they topped out at 71ºF Friday afternoon.  Keep in mind however, KBGM has on been keeping accurate wx data for 61 years.  The media probably will not alert the public to that which makes that 7 day stretch not so impressive....but nonetheless, rather extraordinary!  Pittsburgh, PA has not had max temps 70ºF or higher for TWELVE consecutive days!  For the period from March 12 to March 23, that too is momentous!  And our local KMDT did establish a new record max for Friday as the mercury climbed to 79ºF at 2 pm eclipsing the old record max of 78ºF established in 1938 and 1907!  It most certainly felt summer-like and by analyzing the max temps below, it WAS summer-like on Friday!  I have to post Thursday's maxes as the NWS has yet to update the climatology for March 23...since it is still March 22 in some parts of our country as I am typing this...But here is Thursday; still far-reaching and historic warmth for March 22!   Take a look...

I found this graphic showing the high resolution of the heat that accompanied the heat of Thursday.  Note the cold of the lakes, the persistent upper level low over the southern plains, the snow covered Cascades and the O Canadian Rockies, and why the SE flow this week kept KMDT coolish and foggy as the coastal Atlantic at our latitude is quite cold...awesome hi-res surface temp graphic!

The bubble of heat will get knocked down this weekend by 2 atmospheric features.  The first is this bowling ball of an upper level low that is slowly moving SE from it present location.  Here is the 500 mb analysis as of 0Z last evening...

By Sunday afternoon, note to where this upper level low has migrated...

The other factor that will send us back to reality is the strong diving vort max seen above just to the ESE of James Bay.  This will allow for some rather chilly air aloft to advect towards the lakes and New England and graze eastern PA with some back to reality temps for Monday and Tuesday.  Here are the 850 mb temps for later Monday...

Not to worry though mates as this trough of reality will quickly lift out 36 hours later...

But another shot of O Canada is coming towards the northern tier of states for the latter part of next week...

So most decidedly, back to reality in terms of temps for next week as well as rainfall, too.  With these cool shots from our neighbors to the north, we will also have opportunity for some showers to accompany these frontal passages.  But frankly, we could use some rain as I was tilling my garden yesterday and the soil was actually quite workable and even darst I say DRY for the cool crop planting!  Unreal for March 23!  Here is the 7 day running mean for the period ending next Sunday, April Fool's Day!  Clearly, the heat has retrogressed westward and the trough of coolness has become established in the northeast US.

As for the short term and the rain, here is the current IR satellite of where the coldest clouds and deepest moisture are located.

And the current radar to boot...

As the upper level low moves to our south and east, these bands of showers will move across our area over the next 2 days.  It could literally rain at anytime from daybreak Saturday until nightfall Sunday.  I think the greatest likelihood of precip is Saturday afternoon into early Sunday morning.  By Sunday evening, here is what the NAM believes for our total precip in the region.  It appears that ~0.5" looks like a good bet, but lesser amounts if you miss one of the bands of rain or over an inch if a band gets 2U...not U2!...Sorry...I'm listening to music!

So there you have it...Reality, Rain, Records...all in one fell swoop!  And speaking of U2, I'm not sure to what Bono was referring when he sang this tune, but I'm fairly certain he was not referring to our May-like wx in March!  This opening song was performed by U2 on their tour last year.  The below video clip is from La Plata, Argentina about one year ago!  Enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  The end of quite a spell of record warmth across the east, some showers this weekend, but not raining all of the time, and more typical early spring-like wx for next week!  Have a great week's end my friend!

Precip On The Way For The Week's End

I'll start this off with the statement that we could sure use some rain!  Imagine that...after record rainfall for 2011, we are a bit dry in these parts.  The anomalous warmth without any wetness hasn't helped alleviate the dry conditions.  Gotta get some rain so Ronnie can commence his grass farming activities for the 2012 lawn growing system.  Let me tell ya, this dude grows some great grass!  Anyway, here is the observed precip over the lower 48 for the last day, seven days and 2 weeks...
First, the last 24 hours...

Then the last week...Note the heavy rains and mountain snows in CA, OR, WA!

And now for the last 2 weeks...look at the fact that southeast PA has had less than 0.50" of rainfall!  It is becoming dry out there...

But all of that is about to change.  The most recent IR satellite pic clearly indicates the large cyclone over the middle of the country.  This storm will slowly migrate eastward bringing with it its moisture and instability in the form of colder temps aloft.  This will allow showers and even a few thundershowers to develop...but the convection should be limited due to the persistent marine intrusion from the Atlantic thanks to a gentle SE flow. 

Fog at 7; sun by 11...that should be the forecast for Friday.  However, Saturday might dawn truly overcast with the threat of rain relatively early in the day.  The modeling seems to have quickened the pace of the arrival of the rainfall, although I'm not completely sold on that!  Here are the ensemble plume graphs showing the sporadic showery nature of this upcoming precip event.  I tried to highlight the most likely time on Saturday (16-18Z for KMDT) for the greatest rainfall and that would be somewhere around noon or slightly after...but really a shower could pop up at any time during Saturday.

Here is the graphic that indicates the perceived radar returns during Saturday noonish...again note the hit and miss pattern of these springtime showers.

And by Sunday morning, here is the model's depiction of the total amount of precip that is forecast to fall.  If the banding moves further east, then obviously more rain will fall upon us.  To me, that doesn't look too likely for Saturday.  Sunday will also be wet, but the heaviest of the rain should have fallen by Saturday night...

So there you have it.  Nice Friday with near record warmth.  Cooler and most decidedly damper for both Saturday and Sunday.  Looking into next week, the temps will not be as warm, but we will still experience slightly above normal temps as offered by the GFS and its 7 day running mean ending next Saturday.  Tuesday will be the coolest day while temps will begin to moderate and become "warmer" by next weekend.  The warmest air will migrate a bit further west than where it was centered this past week.  Here is the 7 day running mean for next week...

So spring has most certainly sprung and with it will come the spring showers.  Enjoy this ditty from Jimmy Page and Robert Plant as they perform the "Rain Song".  Listening to Page and Plant can get anyone through a rainy day! After all, upon us all, a little rain must fall.....

Enjoy your week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Nice Friday with sunshine by noon and near record warmth.  Rain will arrive in a showery fashion for the weekend.  Clearing out by Monday with temps cooling back to closer to the 30 yr average.  Tuesday will actually be the coolest day next week.  Here's a graphic for that...