Adding Insult to Injury (05-06-2011)

The Ohio Valley and the Lower Mississippi Valley are experiencing some moderate and major flooding that has been brought on by the recurrent bouts of severe weather in the nation's heartland.  As I opined about a couple of week's ago, the pattern is one that continues to support the repetition of numerous showers and thunderstorms in that part of the country.  That will not change over the next 5-10 days.  Copious amounts of rain will fall in areas that quite frankly just don't need anymore!  As you can see below, the temps for the Ohio Valley is forecast to be several degrees above normal for the middle of next week.  That also means a surge of higher dewpoint air to boot.  In addition, a strong cyclone is forecast to spin up over the southern plains and slowly move north and fill through next week.  As a result, strong thunderstorms should develop in the "active" sector of the storm, that being to the ESE of the cyclone's central lowest pressure. 

The large blue area over the northern plains and Rockies will move east and forcibly push the warm air right out of the picture, not too different than what the Bruins are doing to the Flyers thus far.  This brief warm up has no chance to hang, analogous to overmatched NL East batters facing Doc Halladay!  By next Sunday, there is strong agreement among the ensembles that the cold will invade the SE US and bring continued unsettled conditions to our region on a persistent NW flow.

The map below shows the Euro's take on the situation by next Tuesday evening.  I outlined in blue the area that should have the highest risk of severe weather as the cold front marches eastward during the mid-week period.  I believe that most of PA will be spared of any severe weather, especially the locations east of the Appalachians as cold air damming is entrenched from the anomalous cold air that is banked to our north and the strong ocean vortex to our NE.

With such strong agreement from 10 days out with the ensembles, this is beginning to look like a "sure bet"!  This is quite a deep trough for this time of the year, and the numerous runs of the modeling are in significant agreement for this medium range period.  Frost could be a potential for later next week, but that is a different story for a different day....

In closing, and speaking of sure bets, I received some highly insightful information concerning the 137th Run for the Roses.  I was told through this tout that Midnight Interlude, the Baffert trained 3 yr old colt with 4 bullet workouts on all different track surfaces is the one to beat in the greatest 2 minutes in all of sports.  Maybe he will see a repeat of the Santa Anita Derby?!?  Couple that pick with Soldat, who "bounced" in the Florida Derby last time out, and Master of Hounds, the turf-running import from Europe (I heard you can't go wrong with European imports....St. Pauli, Becks, Guinness, even Heineken....sorry I digress.....), and who knows, you may be styling in your own "Winner's Circle" this Saturday afternoon.  As for me, I will be

sitting back, but not in a rose pink Cadillac, making bets on Kentucky Derby Day.....and with apologies to Mick Jaegger, trying to score the WPS and exacta of the not too "Dead Flowers" of the Run for the Roses!

 

 

Have a great week's end!

 

Smitty

 

AA:  Cool unsettled weekend, brief warm up next week, severe wx to our SW, and then cool again into next weekend....confidence is high...but not with my Derby Picks from my secret "Tout"!

A Chance to "Dry" Out! (05-05-11)

Over the next several days, PA will enjoy a persistent flow from the NW that will allow pieces of energy to move SE in the flow and possibly deliver some showers or spritzes over the next 3-4 days.  The air aloft for this time of year is quite cold and instability showers could arise from this temperature differential; however, this type of pattern does not allow for major rains to develop.  According to the graphic below which is a depiction of the accumulated rainfall by next Tuesday, you can see that central and eastern PA remain fairly dry through this period.  It is possible for KMDT to record precip in each of the next 5 days; however, the amount of water falling from the sky will be minimal!

From the graphic below, you can see that temps will average below normal for the next several days here in the eastern US.  However, at the end of that 5 day period, we are still looking at a brief surge of heat and humidity to help induce the potential for some nasty weather, especially to our SW.  I am still bullish on the fact that early to middle of next week another round of tornadic thunderstorms will develop over the nation's heartland and move east as the week progresses.  There may be some talk about frost Thursday night-Friday morning, but I feel with the smattering of clouds and the breeze still lightly kickin', frost does not look likely to me this evening.

As for later next week, we are still looking at below normal temps into next weekend.  Even the ensembles out to day 16 show a trough in the east, albeit not as deep as the day 10 map shown below.  With ample rain and soil moisture coupled with some sun and cool weather, the fescues are looking as if they are on steroids.  But that is no match for "Lawn Ranger" over in Lebanon County being quite the grass farmer that he is!

Enjoy your Friday!

Smitty

AA:  Cool and not quite as damp through the weekend, then a brief warm-up to allow thunderstorms middle of next week.  May still looks cool for as long as this eye can see......

Severe Weather Outbreak Potential for Middle of Next Week (05-03-2011)

There will be quite a bit of weather to observe over the next several days, but the pattern is such that the middle of next week looks potentially troublesome once again.  After a cool and damp persistent NW flow over the northeastern US through this upcoming weekend, a brief period of warmth will surge NE, much like what occurred today.  And although today's threat is nothing to sneeze at, next week's outbreak may be whooping cough!  A spectacular surge of warm humid air will set the stage for an advancing powerful cold front that can be depicted with the maps shown here.  In this first map, note the strong cyclone (992 mb) up in Quebec and its attendant cold front with copious amounts of rain falling from Albany to Austin.

In the map below, we are looking at the ensembles for next Wednesday.  Please note the ridge over the eastern US allowing for the high dewpoint air to surge NE.  Also note the blue area back over the mid-west.  This is the anomalous cold air mass that strengthens as it progresses east by the second map below for next Saturday morning.

Note how the "blue-blob" advances SE with time.  A strong cold front would be pushing ahead of the "blue-blob"!

It appears as if May looks to be again quite volatile as is usual for this time of year.  However, with the great contrast in air masses we are seeing forecast to develop for next week, another major outbreak of severe wx could be in the making.  This graphic shows the current number of tornadoes to this point in the year on the black line.  Let's say by next weekend (May 15), we are at or above 1250 tornadoes for the US.  This is one forecast that I hope I am completely offbase; however many of my closest friends will inform me that any severe weather that might have developed for next week just received my kiss of death!

As for Derby Day at Churchill Downs, the morning will dawn cool and bright, but an advancing shortwave from the NW may increase clouds by the Run for the Roses.  Hopefully, you'll have the winner (not Uncle Mo!) and sunny fortunes for the first Saturday in May!

Enjoy your mid-week!

Smitty

AA:  Potential for some more nasty storms the middle of next week! 

Severe T-Storm Potential for Tuesday

A southern branch upper vort max will actually phase with a northern jet stream feature and advance eastward through the Ohio Valley spiining up a pretty good cyclone over the Mid-Atlantic States.  If this were winter, I'd be chomping at the bit!  Instead, a rare possibility of severe thunderstorms could be occuring SE of the mountains near the dynamically induced Low Pressure system while snow flies in the northern mountains of PA, NY and northern New England.  As this storm pulls NE, a cold front will advance from west to east, enhancing the upward motion offering the possibility of heavy rains and severe storms.  It's not out of the question that a tornado will be spotted in the slight risk area.....especially the way this severe season has turned.

Note the 500 mb full phase between the northern jet and the southern jet.  This will be a very dynamic system...

This most certainly bears watching as Tuesday's highs will become quite mild as the Harrisburg area enters the warm sector ahead of the approaching storm and the low passes nearly directly overhead.  In fact, watch your home barometers tomorrow afternoon as the pressure falls could become precipitous ahead of the rapidly advancing cold front.....another interesting weather day to be sure!

Enjoy your Tuesday.....

Smitty

AA:  Potential for heavy rains and severe wx Tuesday afternoon and evening.......

Wet First Part of the Week (05-02-2011)

Upon looking at the modeling this morning, it appears that the first 3 days of this work week will be damp with the greatest likelihood of rain and storms falling Tuesday afternoon and evening.  The front that is shown to our west will slowly progress through our area, but get stalled basically over eastern PA.  Then a series of storms, one fairly vigorous Tuesday afternoon and evening will move over PA up into New England.  The map below shows Monday's forecast:

As for the short range ensembles, they suggest a bit of rain after dark overnight, but a shower could fall at any time.  Again, the timing for tomorrow looks to be afternoon and evening, although the consensus is not obvious.  What is agreed upon is that yet another 1.0" rain event looks to be nearly certain for Tuesday and into Wednesday.  Yesterday, it appeared that snow might actually fall to the NW of the storm track in the mountains of PA.  Snow will still be observed, however, in the northern and western mountains of PA.  The modeling has backed off of that scenario for the most part, but the air behind the front is quite cold for this time of year!

As for the 2nd week of May, it looks cool and damp as promised.  The maps below are both the European"s (left.....figures) and American's model interpretation of the mid-atmosphere (500 mb) anomaly for the middle of next week!  Cool looks to rule May.......

Have a good Monday!

Smitty

AA:  Damp and possibly stormy for 1st part of the week.....East v CD meet in question.......cool and damp to persist through next week!

Will Snow Accumulate in the High Ground of PA? (05-01-2011)

Here we are in the first week of the "not-so-much this year" merry month of May, and the modeling is suggesting that snow will at the very least be in the air in central and northern PA during the late Tuesday evening-Wednesday time frame!  If you notice the 0ºC line at 850 mb, this is where snow will likely be observed mixed with the cold rain in this mid-week period.  Also note the surface temperature anomaly for the eastern 2/3 of the US for this Tuesday!  Global warming is to blame for this as you are all so very much aware!

This week will do little to encourage us that a nice spring spell of weather is drawing near.  In fact, temps will be several degrees below normal for this week and precip in our neck of Penn's Woods will be above normal......and next week for that matter as the 6-10 outlook suggests:

The upcoming period of rainy and raw weather (Tuesday-Wednesday) is essentially a nor'easter that will slowly grind its way up the east coast to New England by Friday morning.  With the northwesterly flow behind this cyclone, a brief period of drying will occur....but this will be short lived:

In what looked like a drying trend for next weekend is now beginning to quickly fill with even more moisture advancing from the west and northwest.....Couple that moisture influx with cool, damp air in place at both the surface and aloft does not bode well for sun worshippers.  Old Sol is on leave for most of the next 10 days! In fact, if one is to believe the GFS, another round of moderate rain may develop over the mid-Atlantic states sometime in the next Sunday-Tuesday time frame as shown below:

And if that is not enough, look at the American model for the middle of "not-so much this year" merry month of May:

So as you can see, we are looking at what might likely be a continuation of the cool and damp weather we experienced for most of April.  But on a much brighter note, Kay and I spotted a monarch butterfly yesterday fluttering from plant to plant looking for its necessary nectar.  How ironic, a MONARCH was seen on Saturday....but if you carefully listened to to butterfly, you could hear this low drone of what I thought was Bono...."I Still Haven't Found What I'm Looking For".  That's due to the fact that many of the flowering species seem to be a bit late this spring....or this monarch felt compelled to come on the scene this weekend in honor of his distant relatives! 

As for this blog page, I did add some quick links for those of you who have an interest in easily accessing pertainent wx info.  They are located over on the right. The bottom link will show what to take note of in our wonderous night sky if that sort of thing interests you.....and there is even a planet roundup section equiped with diagrams that will greatly enable one of our esteemed administrators to monitor the planetary alignments with his own recourse.

I hope ya'll enjoy this new format.  I must personally thank "Mr. T" for the blog suggestion and "Aquaman" for the technical assistance in getting my new best friend up and running on Al Gore's internet!

Enjoy your Sunday and this upcoming week!

Smitty

AA:  Cooler than normal and wetter than normal for as long as this eye can see!