Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
It really doesn't get much better than this synoptically for a coastal storm to develop and then sit and spin off the Mid-Atlantic coast for a few days. ALL, and I do mean ALL of the ingredients came together to deliver copious amounts of rain to the Lower Susquehana Valley. A vast high pressure system to the north, deep tropical moisture from the Gulf (Karen remnants), deep tropical moisture from the tropical Atlantic, low level vorticity from what once was TS Karen, and a cutoff upper 500 mb low over the central Appalachians, anomalously warm waters off the Mid-Atlantic coast, and a strong 700 mb-850 mb jet driving in mid-level moisture from the warm ocean, and finally the low level air upsloping the Piedmont to rain out over the KMDT region! I'll try to show some of this...1st, here is the visible satellite of this Coastal Crawler as of midday Friday. Note the "eye" just east of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.
Below is a satellite view of the Atlantic this past Monday. In blue is the remnants of Karen; both spin and moisture. Off to the east is deep tropical moisture from the very warm tropical Atlantic. Thanks to the weak upper air pattern, these 2 decided to get together and create the Coastal Crawler! For those of you who recall, this was the front that passed through and gave us 0.75" rain Monday. The old frontal boundary also aided in the development of this storm!
As for the warm oceans...note the anomalous warmth off the Delmarva!
As for the mid-level jet, look at the initialization of the Euro...look at that fire hose, that starts out around Bermuda, pointing right at KMDT! Unreal! When this happens in the Pacific, and heavy rains fall in Cali, it is known as the "Pineapple" connection. What would we connect with in Bermuda?? I was even thinking...if this were a winter set-up, that jet is so strong and so long that if this were a no-doubt about it snow storm, at the height of the storm, the precip would switch to sleet with the mid-levels warming to above freezing with the ocean air!
High pressure...ok...here is that current map! Look at that huge dome (1032 mb) centered over Quebec ridging south and west and east blocking the Coastal Crawler from...well...even crawling!
So now we have the perfect set-up for the perfect storm. As for the upsloping; well, sea-level to 500' and then some in many places above sea level with an easterly flow spells trouble with all of the above in place. That's why the rain has come...and will stay yet for a little while...here is the official call from NOAA for the next 6 hours...
And the current 24 hour total derived by radar...would not be surprised to see some purple show up when all is said and done! As of 1 pm...these are quick additions...York Airport: just under 8", Cap City ~7.5", KMDT: just over 7", Smitty: same...Sky Hawk: can't tell since his gauge overflowed early this am at 5", as did my buddy from New Cumberland, the Captain from days long past, and my Bro down in Lanco. What is it with you guys...get larger gauges or get out there and dump prior to overflow! Seriously, I love the obs being sent my way...keep them coming!
I don't want an ob from my Hummelstown connection telling me about a severely flooding Swatty. Here is the latest for it...
And the Breeches for the West Shore clientele...
And finally for you "River Rats"...
Speaking of "Rats" enjoy this Grateful Dead song concerning rats of a different variety...if you have 9 minutes, just let the song play in the background; it really is very good!
OK...gotta run and monitor my wet basement. The rain has picked up in its intensity once again, and there is still ample moisture advecting this direction! Remember, that swath of rain is moving from east towards the west! Ouch...
Enjoy your week's end! Stay dry...
Smitty
AA: Lots of rain...I know...No $&#!...but still not over...might see some brightening by Sunday pm...but not too much! Lawn mowing warning for next week!
As now the modeling has depicted for the last several runs, a coastal crawler will slowly meander in the Mid-Atlantic for several days creating rather damp and dreary conditions right through the week's end. The timing is not good for most as this is the lone fall holiday weekend in celebration of the discovery of the new world...quickly evolving into the present old world...but I digress and will refrain further from any political commentary. Here is the Euro temps and precip for the next 10 days...a solid 3.5" rain filled time...and temps remaining in the 50s for some time! Rainy and raw...
The Mid-Atlantic precip map shows a wider view of the Euro's bullish precip amounts...through Monday morn...
...and a day by day analysis of the Euro starting today in the upper left panel and ending Sunday in the lower right panel...
The GFS, while not as wet, is still showing plenty of precip in these parts...
But maybe the real wx worry will lie with beach interests as the tight pressure gradient will slam the coast with gales from Long Island to Hatteras for a prolonged period...look at the peak wave activity as shown by the Wave Watch model...
...oh yeah, that's right...non-essential....sorry, but I digressed once again! Trust me, big water along the coast this weekend with a long, stiff NE fetch! But the wx in St. Louis tomorrow evening will be awesome for the Pirates to clinch the NLDS and move onto the NLCS vs the Dodgers! Clear skies and temps falling through the low 60s during the division series clinching game! Go Bucs!
OK...gotta roll and listen to the A's clinching game over the Tigers! Enjoy this all-time baseball classic!
And enjoy your mid-week!
Smitty
AA: Looks like rain will be a main-stay Wed pm through the weekend!
This week will play out in a very similar fashion as this week that just past. There is one fly in the ointment, however, and that could lead to a rather damp Saturday if the east coast hybrid develops like both the GFS and the Euro suggest. In fact, both are in remarkably good agreement from this time frame, so I am worried that our wx could get a little "mucky" come this weekend. Here...take a look at the sea level pressures progged by both the GFS...
...and the EURO...
A strong NE wind will be blasting the NJ and Delmarva coasts and if the storm strengthens to any degree, rain will get driven westward into our region by Friday at some point...so maybe the windows will be down for Friday night lights? Just sayin'...
As for the rain tomorrow, there will be plenty. Most will fall in the daylight hours between 8 am and 4 pm. Showers will linger I believe until after sunset...However, the threat of a flooding rain is becoming less likely as the true remnants of TS Karen will stay south and east of PA. Thus, totals of ~1-1.5" should be realized as opposed to the 2-3" I thought possible yesterday. Here is the official prog from WPC...
Here is the map as per WPC for Monday afternoon...note that the remnants of Karen are well south of PA and delivering its deep moisture to places in the mountains of GA, SC, and NC.
That's not to say that we will not get heavy rain! Our air mass in place is quite warm and humid as evidenced by the current "real-feel" temps!
Once the front and its rains move through Monday evening, high pressure will rule the roost for the remainder of the week. Wednesday morning should be our coolest morning so far as a huge dome of high pressure will support radiational cooling well into sunrise Wed am...
By the way, look at the current snow cover over the western US where the storm moved this weekend!
And how the temps reacted to the cold from below...
But in these parts, it's been a very warm start to October! Look at this graphic...wow! And this week will have a deep trough into the west with a warm ridge in the east!
I'm just hoping that the Pirates stay as hot as air masses have been that have been visiting Pittsburgh! Go Bucs! Also hoping I see more of this...
OK...gotta roll and get my pre-game face on for a pivotal Game 3 Pittsburgh...this will undoubtedly be part of the festivities...good music from many artists, Iron City included! Hope you like...
Enjoy your much needed and beneficial rainy Monday...
Smitty
AA: Hoping the Bucs win today...oh yeah, and ~1" rain on Monday...maybe a tad more....
