Saturday, November 5, 2016

Presidential Elections and the Subsequent Winters

With all of the recent hoopla around the upcoming elections, and rightly so I might add, I had a desire to (just for kicks and giggles) analyze VERY BRIEFLY the winter months that followed with victorious Democratic or Republican presidential candidates.  Now understand that there is absolutely no meteorological significance in this analysis; exclusively a Republican or Democratic victory on election day in early November.  I simply analoged the last 55 years of presidential elections with a Democratic victory (1960-JFK, 1964-LBJ, 1976-The Peanut Farmer, 1992 and 1996-Slick Willie, 2008 and 2012-well, you know who) against the Republican winning years (1968 and 1972-Tricky Dick, 1980 and 1984-The Great Communicator, 1988-Papa Bush 41, 2000 and 2004-Dubya Bush 43).  I used the fabulous Earth Science Research Lab data base to create the map outputs.  And here are the results:  First, dare I say, a Democratic victory...

TEMPERATURES:  Below norms and cold northern plains through the lakes into the mid Atlantic and northeast.  PA is actually quite cold for the winter...take a look.
PRECIPITATION:  A suppressed storm track from the western Gulf and Texas off the Mid-Atlantic coast.  Dry in the country's northern corners.  Near normal precipitation for PA leaning a tad snowier the further south and east one would be...



Now for a smashing Republican victory..let's first analyze TEMPERATURES:  Very cold Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic and the northeast!  Much above normal for the plains states and the desert SW through Texas.  Cold central and northern Rockies.  Amusingly, somewhat of a chaotic signal...the clear message is quite cold here in our region!




PRECIPITATION:  Continued dryness across most of the country with exception of Texas and portions of the deep south.  This would continue to stress reservoir levels in CA and perpetuate the drought in New England from this past summer.  

Ironically, the minimal wetness that shows above in Alabama and Georgia and SC would be a god-send as these same areas have experienced a very dry summer...take a look...quite remarkable how closely this aligns; almost a "drought turnabout" conspiracy!

So a completely unscientific analysis of our upcoming winter based on either a Republican or Democratic presidential victory...and I use the term "Presidential" very loosely! 300+ million Americans and these 2 are our choices...unreal!  But whoever you choose, the weather nationwide will cooperate on Tuesday with high pressure spanning the states from CA to the NY island, from the redwood forest to the gulf stream waters...take a look...
Temperatures will be above seasonal norms as well nationwide, except in Florida and west TX and New Mexico.  However, below norms in those areas makes for an awfully nice November day!
Here is the potential total rainfall during Tuesday...a western Gulf disturbance looking like it will stay offshore for election day 2016.  Essentially, wall to wall dryness.  No weather excuse for a low voter turnout!

So get out and vote on Tuesday!  And enjoy this folksy presidential history lesson...

Savor this wonderful pre-election weekend weather, too!  And remember, clocks back one hour Sunday morning at 2:00 am local as we jump back into standard time.  This will really remind people that we have now entered "Solar Winter" as the 3 darkest months are November-January...

Smitty

AA:  Just for fun...looked at the winter weather after either a republican or democrat winning the presidential election in the month prior.  Absolutely no scientific significance!  Summary below:

The Don victory:  Very cold but a dry winter for PA.
Crooked Hillary victory:  Cold with slightly above normal snowfall for PA.
Johnson/Weld victory:  Hell freezes over!
Stein/Baraka victory:  The entire Greenland ice sheet will melt by spring!