Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
...Warm and Wet. I'm very disappointed that I had many people looking forward to a 2nd major snow event prior to Christmas. As soon as I put that word out, both the GFS and Euro went south...and stayed south for the most part! The winter storm that will traverse across the southland this weekend will be a shut down storm for the Carolinas and southern VA...but for us, it will simply pull more modified arctic air into our region until a major winter storm passes to our west next weekend. Here we go...
First the temps and precip (none until next weekend!) A cold of it to be sure...
Then the storm system that will deliver the goods to the southlands...the graphic below looks reasonable to me...
And then the liquid sunshine for us next weekend...a huge cyclone...
...with no cold air means heavy rains...again! The map below is only for a 6 hour period. This could deliver and easy 2" rainfall...AGAIN!
OK...with that, I'm off to bed. I'm sorry if I got anyone too excited with my hinting at a good bet for a winter storm this weekend! Oh well...enjoy!
Just a very quick post to suggest that about a week from now, another snow event will take place in the Mid-Atlantic region that occurred in mid November. An arctic high will supply the cold for wintry precip; mostly snow as one low pressure center runs up the Ohio Valley and then transfers its energy to a coastal low. Then after all of the shouting, a "warm up" will take place for the next week or so leading up towards Christmas. Allow me to show the graphics...
First what everyone wants to see; the modeled snow accumulations and the placement of the coastal low pressure:
The ECMWF (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts or the Euro):
And the GFS (Global Forecast System or the American model):
The Euro is a tad slower with the development than the GFS; however, both would be most impactful next Sunday, one week from today. Here is the arctic high to supply the cold air and the developing area of low pressure in the deep south.
You know, only the good lord knows what the future holds. But if this pattern remains intact for the next several weeks, expect above normal snowfall for this upcoming winter. And I haven't seen anything to argue for a major pattern change anytime soon. The equatorial Pacific Ocean drives much of the jet stream patterns around the globe and the type of its configuration suggests more of the same for the next several weeks to months. It's surely been wet!
OK...off to the gym to start our Sunday. Enjoy this bluesy rendition of our weather pattern from the Beale Street Blues Boy...
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Upcoming cold week starting Tuesday setting the stage for another "early" winter snow event I do believe coming in about a week from now.
