It Always Seems This Way

Now being guilty of how most view weather and climate, I should back up the title with data from the past.  However, perception is often more important than reality.  And the perception to which I allude is that it always seems to get hot once school begins in September!  This year will be no different.  Just take a look at how our August has been so far to date...

And more closer to the current time; how about just the last 10 days.  Trust me, the 5+ºC anomaly is welcomed by many in the nation's mid-section at this time of year!

But all of this is about to change.  A large upper ridge is building over the eastern part of North America and will remain entrenched for what I believe will be well into the month of September.  With that said, heat and humidity will be able to build from the Mississippi east and prolong summer up until the equinox...gut feeling at this point!  Take a look at the 500 mb ridge over downeast O Canada for the start of September.  The jet stream will be well north of our latitude here in the eastern portion of North America.  You can see the "blue" anomaly in Texas; the model is sniffing out a potential tropical system which at this time of year is always a potential proverbial "fly in the ointment"!

And that ridge holds through Labor Day!  There's not too much difference between the 2 maps although more tropical mischief is showing up in the SE USA potentially but these tropical systems are difficult for global models to detect this far in advance.

And speaking of tropical troubles, here is the latest from the NHC (National Hurricane Center) as to the path and strength of Erika...

It now appears as if it will be a major rainmaker for the state of Florida as it passes over the Keys as a minimal tropical storm and its remnants will deliver much precip to the SE USA.  Here is a graphic showing precip over the next 5 days as per the Euro...

So, one must always be wary of the tropics at this time of year.  But lets look at how the temps are forecast to be into September...first for the entire month:

And let's see how we achieve this.  I will show graphics of temperature anomalies for 10 day periods starting with this weekend through Labor day:

Next, the middle of the month...

And lastly, the cooling that is seen as the pattern breaks down by month's end...

So as usual, I'll leave you with a little ditty that relates in some way to the above topic.  In this case, the beginning of school and the end of summer; however, the weather will not cooperate with the latter at least until mid-September!  Enjoy this folksy effort from The White Stripes...

And enjoy your week's end...

Smitty

AA:  Warm to hot and mostly dry for us here in PA for the start of September.  Likely our warmest stretch of weather all summer when compared to the "normals"!  Nice parking lot weather!