Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
Teleconnections? Is that some hokey kinda new-fangled meteorological forecasting methodology? Well, uh, actually, YES! Many of you are familiar with or at least heard of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and even the Arctic Oscillation (AO). But over the years of my perusing weather patterns and studying oceanic teleconnections, I feel that the largest ocean in the world has the greatest impact on the world's weather! Seems reasonable to me at least. Now the most infamous oscillation is the sloshing of water in the Pacific bathtub known as El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) where a warming of the equatorial Pacific has one effect whereas the cooling of the same oceanic waters (La Nina) has a widely different effect...globally! But there are several other drivers of the atmospheric engine known as the MJO, the EPO, and the WPO. Smitty...STOP...you're killing me with this "alphabet soup!" If that's what you're saying or thinking...then...skip to the song and the AA. But for those of you who are the least bit intrigued, humor me for a few maps and thoughts. By the way, Happy New Year y'all!
So...with all of that up top, the Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) is forecast to tank and thus, in my opinion, the temps will respond in kind by also tanking. Now, there is a bit of a lag, but the jet will react and thus cold will invade the lower 48. Here is the Euro ensemble mean (51 members averaged together) for the 5 day period ending next Saturday...brrr...
The control run off of which the ensembles are run is even more bullish on coast to coast cold! Take a look...both of these maps are for the 850 mb level or about 1 mile up. But Smitty, we don't live a mile above the surface! Agree, but using this level shows a "truer" movement of the air masses as the force of friction can mainly be disregarded.
Here is a map of the 5 day mean temps from the control for 5 days ending Jan 10; only FL sees any warmth. But that indicates a rather strong SE ridge to battle the cold! Again...brrr...
And with that cold in place, and the rather strong and persistent sub-tropical high over the Bahama-mamas, a battle will ensue and snow/ice is the likely outcome somewhere from Dallas (DFW) to New York (LGA). Here is the Euro's take...snowfall totals ending Jan 10...The "jackpot" spot on the NH-ME border is from a storm that will actually develop into quite a nor'easter for interior New England Thursday night into Friday.
There is still some uncertainty with that system, but in any event, thanks to the recent warmth in these parts, I do not believe there will be much to worry about in the KMDT area...snowfall totes by 2017!
Here is the uncertainty to which I alluded...51 different locations for the developing low pressure system...not a good synoptic set-up for a major snow event anyway in these parts...the high is too far east in the maritimes of O'Canada.
So far, this December has been just about 1ºF above normal so far in our region...
Compare the map above to the forecast from the Euro for the next 32 days! Quite similar...
In conclusion, winter will return in waves over the next couple of weeks. The risk is that with the teleconnections of the Pacific both aligning for cold air to move south, January might be colder than forecast above. But time will tell. The science of meteorology has always piqued my interest like no other...as many of you are fully aware. So, I'll leave y'all with this...
I do believe January will favor cold, but not as bad...I don't think...as January 2014. (Northeast USA was 25th coldest on record). OK...gotta run. Planning to have a nice visit with my son and his wife today as he's in from STL. Looking very much forward to it!
Happy New Year!
Smitty
AA: After the mild start today, a shot of cold Thursday-Saturday with a skiff of snow later Thursday. Heaviest to our NE in NE. Then yet another brief warm up for early next week, but then the bottom falls out and could be quite cold into the middle of January. There will be battle between cold and warm, so look for many small bouts of snow/ice in these parts. Waaaaay too early to see any major storms, but with the cold in place, it is most certainly possible.
As I sit here this winter solstice evening and opine about my thoughts on the upcoming couple of weeks worth of weather, I feel very confident that the KMDT will have a brown/blue/green Christmas as there will be both a lack of precip and moderating temps over the next 5 days. Take a look at the 850 mb temps for the next 5 days vs norms...cool west/warm east.
And in terms of where the snow cover currently is located...well...take a gander...as of this lovely winter solstice morn...(By the way, I hope y'all scoped not only the glorious sunrise, but also the awe inspiring sunset today!)
But much of this snowpack will retreat north as the above normal temps work their way east into our portion of the continent. Any and all ice/snow including piles will be bye-bye by Christmas Day post. So, with that said, I'll have a Blue Christmas or a Green Christmas in these parts. But for you lovers of winter, fret not as I believe the Arctic will once again unleash her wrath...but not until the latter parts of Jan into Feb...I do believe that even though we are in the throes of winter, the weather will be rather benign for the next 2-3 weeks...AT LEAST. This will encourage the AGW crowd...grrrr....Temps vs norms for week ending Jan 6...Keep the Heat at 60 Ronnie! Shorts and T-shirt wx!
So, I've had numerous people tell me that they actually like the tunes more than the wx info in these brief weather snippets that I so much enjoy to create...so I am leaving y'all with 2...first a Blue Christmas from one of my new favorite groups, The Lumineers...
Enjoy...
Then, another favorite of mine, River, sung and written by Joni Mitchell will describe my plight in her 8th line of lyric...listen closely and enjoy it as well...
With that little bit said about the weather, and much said about my love of song, I wish everyone who reads this a Merry "slightly above normal temps" Christmas and a Happy "waiting until mid month for serious cold and wintry weather" New Year!
Smitty
AA: Benign for the next 3-4 weeks. Let's put it this way, we should be in the parking lot everyday henceforth until the next arctic blast which may, at best, come around Jan 15 or so??? Merry Christmas my friend! Enjoy those 2nd Amendment kiddos!
The modeling is everywhere! Above normal temps followed by a precipitous drop to unheard of temperature levels. Run to run model inconsistency. All of the teleconnections are contradictory with each other. Bottom line; this is one tough pattern so tread lightly...like walking on very thin ice. By the way, that's how we played hockey growing up at times, had to keep moving over the ice for fear of it breaking under your skate! Ha! Couldn't do the 1-tap-2-tap-3-tap face-off thinggy. Two guys in one spot for any length of time was a bit treacherous! Global warming you know; soft ice! Anyway, the one certainty is that temps will reach their coldest levels of the season in the next week or so. Here is Saturday's temp anomalies across the continent; that's quite cold east of the divide!
But check out the cold forecast for later next week...ouch!
And by next weekend, the Euro has it cold and getting even colder. Note the reloading to our west and north!
And the latest dynamical model for January is EXTREMELY cold as well...
But I'm sure some of you have heard of our first wintry precip potential late this weekend...well here is the Euro's take on a rather weak system with overrunning precip of mainly snow by early-midday Monday. Since it is likely our first accumulating snowfall, be very careful out there my friends...especially if it hits in the darkness of early Monday morning. By the way, come to think of it...it's always dark at this time or year or so it seems! Sunset; 4:41 pm!
So I'll leave y'all with this appropriate classic! Enjoy!
Have a good week's end!
Smitty
AA: Cold and getting colder in the the next 10 days. An accumulating snow of ~1-3" by Monday. Next weekend COULD be brutal! My gut call is a cold January to follow after a brief respite; but this is ONE TOUGH PATTERN!
As I opined about a week ago, the atmospheric engine is undergoing a pattern change...at least I believed so at that point in time. As we push forward closer to the solstice, I am seeing that occur right be my eyes. This weekend was markedly different than many of the past days where stratocumulus was difficult to cut, and the air simply felt raw. Brrr...! Listen, 44°F in ATL, STL, ORD, and MDT all during midday shows me that a polar air mass is in place. Possibly, showing the way of what I believe will be THREE arctic shots by the solstice. Let me explain...Below is a map of the current temps whilst I pound the keys...
The little bit of wintry wx we all should experience by Monday am is simply a wakeup to all who failed to realize that we just entered meteorological winter last Thursday. The 3 coldest months are Dec-Feb. With that said, here is the model guidance suggestion of frozen precip in these parts by Monday sunrise...
But the real face slap will occur later in the week when an arctic shot pushes through these parts...the graphic below shows deviations from the norms for Friday pm...quite cold and frankly, stuff we haven't seen since last February...When you see purple on these maps I use...Brrr!
I really can't address snowfall, but I do believe that snow will be an issue to some extent for the next several weeks. Although I do not see any major nor'easter, both the GFS and the Euro have been hinting at a impactful storm...first the GFS...it usually has a "warmer" solution...total snowfall next 10 days...
And the King Euro...
Both are clearly indicating that we are heading for a much colder time...here is the Euro 5 day mean Wed-Sun...that's a widespread cold map!
So the precip timing is difficult; the type of precip is difficult; the coming cold not so much. It will be a rude awakening for most! So I suggest you kick back, have your lamp burning low on your table top, and enjoy this oft listened to tune on my part...
Thanks for reading!
Smitty
AA: A change to winter for sure! The cold that's coming is an easy forecast. Snowfall, well that is a real question mark?
As most of you are quite aware, we've experienced quite a stretch of mild weather in this rapidly passing fall season. With only a few days remaining in November, take a look at our departure from norms for the month to date...note how Hurricane Matthew which stirred up the Atlantic and created the wet ground along the SE coast kept temps slightly below norms while the rest of the continent baked!
But having the luxury the past couple of days of studying the atmospheric numerical models as opposed to studying learning styles (and being in contact with a very close associate Etters Eddie, pic below), I believe a pattern change is evolving for the upcoming winter season.
The front that blasted through last week and the subsequent cold that followed is just a fore-bearer of things to come. This week, after some much needed rainfall, the upper air troughs will keep getting larger and deeper across the continental US. By Thursday, we should have a nice amount of accumulated precip...take a look...
But for those wanting snow, there is simply no arctic air to be found in this part of the continent until next weekend. However, if you believe the recent swings in the climate modeling, December looks to turn cold...
That's quite a cold monthly forecast above! And here is the Euro's 51 ensembles temperature forecast for KMDT; note how the mean is below freezing for many of the upcoming days after this last spike of relative warmth...
And for my New England re-locator...the snowfall forecast for a town that is close to you...looks like some nice Christmas ski time...!
Remember, in these parts, we only have roughly a 1 in 4 shot of having an inch of snow covering Terra Mater for December 25...but the north country, well...that's a different story!
And for what it's worth, Hurricane Otto just pummeled Costa Rica and Nicaragua...
The last time we had a hurricane hit Central America this late in the year was Martha in 1969...and here was that December's temps...just another data input for gaining any type of insight...
And speaking of the north country...I'll leave y'all with this classic from Johnny and Bob...enjoy!
By the way. for those of you deer hunters who read this, I prefer my deer bologna with no sugar added, but any and all cheese is mighty fine! Thank you!
Smitty
AA: A mild end to November with a nice soaking rain event, but then a change to a much colder December I do believe...?
Wow! What a difference an hour makes! Yesterday afternoon, Harrisburg, PA reached 69ºF at shortly past 2 pm for the daily max temp. Then, a mere 5 hours later, the mercury fell to 35ºF with snow, sleet, and rain for the daily min! Now a 34ºF daily range isn't all that extraordinary; however, the manner in which it occurred is. I was driving to Columbia, PA with my lovely bride for our annual sauerkraut dinner and experienced what is called a "gust front" or in the meteorological community properly termed an Outflow Boundary. Study the graphic below:
As it's been so dry in recent times, the gusty winds associated with the deep forced convection from the new air mass regime, caused vast amounts of dust and debris to be swept airborne. As we traveled I-83 S towards York, there were times up in the distance that I commented to my wife, "Look at that smoke up ahead!" But I quickly realized that what I first perceived as smoke was actually dust and debris blown 100's of feet into the air. Also observed were numerous vorticities or "mini-swirls" easily observed by the downed leaves and dusty fields and unpaved parking areas. It was actually very impressive! A few of these gusts within the gust front pushed the car with alarming force. Then, once we reached US-30 E, we actually pulled away from the leading edge of gust front, reached our destination in Columbia, only to experience the turbulence of the extreme gusty winds once again! KMDT had a gust of 52 mph yesterday. I believe in my travels during the passage of the gust front higher gusts we observed. It was a spectacular cold frontal passage and one that was well advertised by mother nature. Look at what the storm system did in terms of laying down a blanket of white with the invading cold air from O Canada!
Here was the surface map as the front passed through PA...note the 2nd front just to the north of Michigan; you will note its arrival with the ringing of Sunday's church bells and you and your neighbor's wind chimes...that is if they don't get blown away!
And although it has been enjoyably warm for this entire autumn season, change is certainly on the way! While North America has been "basking" so to speak, most of the earth away from the polar regions has been quite chilly for the month of November to this point; take a look...
China and North America is warm; Europe, India, South America is cool. Asia is brutally cold! Although O Canada is slighlty behind its snow cover for this time of year, Asia is not. The snow cover is at a record max for this point in the cold season. Take a look at the snow/ice coverage valid yesterday from a northern hemispheric view...
And given the longer term upper air progs (which I will not show at this time to keep this at a readable length), any cross polar flow will flood North America with cold air. So I do hope y'all enjoyed this borrowed time of warmth these last several weeks because we are about to embark on what I believe could be a real eye-opening December. The map below shows the mid-levels of the atmosphere with lower pressures lying under higher pressures to the north. In meteorological terms in the eastern part of the continent, that is referred to as "blocking" which generally tends to create slow moving storm systems and often snowier than normal conditions. This map is just that...
With the fact that air flows from regions of higher pressures to regions of lower pressures and given the time necessary for atmospheric change to take place, by January, the long term US model shows January to be a very cold month...ouch!
OK...gotta run. But with all of this wind about to grace our presence, I will leave you with this classic remake of a wonderful American folk story. It's a long song, but well worth the watch/listen...
Enjoy your Thanksgiving week and today's Feast of Christ The King...
Smitty
AA: First off, thanks for all the obs yesterday my secret wx observers across the greater KMDT area! Greatly appreciated and shared with our clientele and comrades alike whilst in Columbia last evening...as for the AA version y'all have grown to expect; very windy today with slacking winds by Tuesday. But much colder than recent weeks...here is one last map...the temp anomalies averaged over the next 5 days...it is quite a change!
With all of the recent hoopla around the upcoming elections, and rightly so I might add, I had a desire to (just for kicks and giggles) analyze VERY BRIEFLY the winter months that followed with victorious Democratic or Republican presidential candidates. Now understand that there is absolutely no meteorological significance in this analysis; exclusively a Republican or Democratic victory on election day in early November. I simply analoged the last 55 years of presidential elections with a Democratic victory (1960-JFK, 1964-LBJ, 1976-The Peanut Farmer, 1992 and 1996-Slick Willie, 2008 and 2012-well, you know who) against the Republican winning years (1968 and 1972-Tricky Dick, 1980 and 1984-The Great Communicator, 1988-Papa Bush 41, 2000 and 2004-Dubya Bush 43). I used the fabulous Earth Science Research Lab data base to create the map outputs. And here are the results: First, dare I say, a Democratic victory...
TEMPERATURES: Below norms and cold northern plains through the lakes into the mid Atlantic and northeast. PA is actually quite cold for the winter...take a look.
PRECIPITATION: A suppressed storm track from the western Gulf and Texas off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Dry in the country's northern corners. Near normal precipitation for PA leaning a tad snowier the further south and east one would be...
Now for a smashing Republican victory..let's first analyze TEMPERATURES: Very cold Lakes through the Mid-Atlantic and the northeast! Much above normal for the plains states and the desert SW through Texas. Cold central and northern Rockies. Amusingly, somewhat of a chaotic signal...the clear message is quite cold here in our region!
PRECIPITATION: Continued dryness across most of the country with exception of Texas and portions of the deep south. This would continue to stress reservoir levels in CA and perpetuate the drought in New England from this past summer.
Ironically, the minimal wetness that shows above in Alabama and Georgia and SC would be a god-send as these same areas have experienced a very dry summer...take a look...quite remarkable how closely this aligns; almost a "drought turnabout" conspiracy!
So a completely unscientific analysis of our upcoming winter based on either a Republican or Democratic presidential victory...and I use the term "Presidential" very loosely! 300+ million Americans and these 2 are our choices...unreal! But whoever you choose, the weather nationwide will cooperate on Tuesday with high pressure spanning the states from CA to the NY island, from the redwood forest to the gulf stream waters...take a look...
Temperatures will be above seasonal norms as well nationwide, except in Florida and west TX and New Mexico. However, below norms in those areas makes for an awfully nice November day!
Here is the potential total rainfall during Tuesday...a western Gulf disturbance looking like it will stay offshore for election day 2016. Essentially, wall to wall dryness. No weather excuse for a low voter turnout!
So get out and vote on Tuesday! And enjoy this folksy presidential history lesson...
Savor this wonderful pre-election weekend weather, too! And remember, clocks back one hour Sunday morning at 2:00 am local as we jump back into standard time. This will really remind people that we have now entered "Solar Winter" as the 3 darkest months are November-January...
Smitty
AA: Just for fun...looked at the winter weather after either a republican or democrat winning the presidential election in the month prior. Absolutely no scientific significance! Summary below:
The Don victory: Very cold but a dry winter for PA.
Crooked Hillary victory: Cold with slightly above normal snowfall for PA.
Johnson/Weld victory: Hell freezes over!
Stein/Baraka victory: The entire Greenland ice sheet will melt by spring!
Upon the breaking of dawn Tuesday morn, a widespread frost greeted most of us here in south central PA. In fact, the actual air temp reached 32°F at the York-Thomasville airport official NWS reporting station. However, that frost will be the exception rather than the norm in the upcoming 10 days. In fact, temps should rally into the low 70s by early afternoon. I always like to look at the progged 850 mb temps to get a feel for where the surface temps will be. Remember, the 850 mb level roughly corresponds to about the 5000' level where surface conditions/friction/terrain, etc doesn't affect the modeling as it does at the 900 mb level and obviously the surface. Here are this afternoon's 850 temps for our region...
Two things to note above; the front running from On Wisconsin down SW to the Okie from Muskogee and the hurricane that will affect Bermuda on Thursday, Hurricane Nicole, currently a Cat 2 storm with 100 mph winds. Behind the cold front, the air mass over the Dakotas is quite cool for this time of year. However, as it migrates east and lifts north of PA, it will moderate and give us a day that is merely a degree or 2 below the 30 year seasonal norms. Currently our daily normal max is 65°F while our daily min is 46°F for KMDT. Here is the 850 progged anomalies for Friday...
From the above map, it is clearly evident that warmth is again building over the western interior States and will continue to building into next week. Here is the 850 mb temp anomaly for Monday...
So expect some warmth at the surface in these parts for next week as a major storm in the middle part of the country develops. Here is what the storm system looks like at the 850 mb level on Friday...
...and the progged surface map for the same time...
The Okies from Muskogee will be on the cold side of the low with a stiff north wind advecting cold Canadian air down the plains while we will be enjoying a warm SW flow. Stubborn high pressure over New England will reluctantly recede to the NE and thus some light overrunning precip will occur and the true warmth will be difficult to reach the surface east of the Appalachian Mtns.
In fact, looking at the CFSv2, the latter part of October remains warm in the east while the western US cools a bit...just a few islands of cool in a sea of warmth.
OK...gotta run! Maybe for the hills if you believe Al and Hill from their comments at yesterday's Florida gathering...totally insane that politicians seem to be able to comment on one of the most complex scientific topics known to man; earth's climate system! It's been 11 years now since a major CAT 3 or larger storm has struck the US (Wilma was last in late October, 2005). Yes, Matthew was a powerful storm and its damage incredible, but it's not as extraordinary as these 2 political hacks would have you believe! When viewing the graphic below, keep in mind that coastal development has exploded in the recent decades and that there is far more opportunity for greater economic insured loss to be incurred now than back 50-100 years ago.
I'll leave y'all with this country classic! Enjoy!
Smitty
AA: A couple chilly mornings, but overall a warm and dry pattern will persist through the remainder of October...at least from my seat.
