A Look Behind and a Look Ahead

Now with June 2011 in the record books, we can verify what many of you probably thought; that June was warm.  Well, June 2011 averaged 2.1 degrees above normal for the month but only had 3 days where the max temp achieved 90F or greater...and that was at the beginning of the month.  Remember when the energy czar reduced the cooling and stated that people did not notice a difference!  Well my one cohort spewed rants about working conditions comparable to some sweat box in southeast Asia.  That's because it was so hot and humid compared to normals so of course it was going to be equally as uncomfortable inside when not maximizing the efficiency and output of the system designed to cool the complex.  Anyway, below shows the temperature graphic for KMDT for June 2011.

Precipitation was also above normal for the month with some hefty thunderstorms in the middle of the month.  This was a typical hit and miss pattern where precip amounts varied drastically over just a few miles.  However, based on the climate location of KMDT, we received 5.17" which is 1.18" above the normal of 3.99".  1.84", a record for June 16, was 35% of the monthly total.  For the year, we are still well above normal despite that snow deficient winter that had me eating well that to my grammatically astute and literaturally literate compadre!

As for the current holiday weekend that is upon us, we will have a beautiful time of it with warm temps and moderate humidity.  The humidity will invade late today and be at its highest relative point overnight tonight into Sunday morning.  Then a front will be poised to move SE across PA during the daylight hours Sunday and kick off some thunderstorms mostly during the morning and early afternoon hours.  I cannot rule out a stray storm lingering into Sunday evening, but the bulk of the rain will fall when people are either going to or coming from church, Sunday brunch, morning run, Sunday tomato watering, or whatever else tickles your fancy on a Sunday morning.  The SREFs show that we could obtain ~0.50" of much needed liquid sunshine primarily during the Sunday morning hours.

Then according to the progged 500 mb modeling, a strong dose of Canadian air will be delivered once again leading to warm days and relatively cool nights through the middle of the upcoming week.  Eventually, this air mass will too become slightly more humid.  But overall, the heat and the humidity will be moderate for this upcoming week!  The map below shows the 1-5 day means of temps for this upcoming week.  As you can see, PA is in the white which indicates near normal temps.  For those of you vacationing along the Mid-Atlantic coast, the slightly above normal temps are indicative a robust NW flow at the upper levels creating a weaker than normal on-shore sea breeze leading to the warm beach conditions.  Those of you who did choose this week for the beach vacation must have an "in" with some wx guy that tipped you off to such nice wx this week!

As for the longer term, the persistent trough here in the east is being advertised on both the Euro and the GFS, although the GFS is extreme with its trough.  Below are 2 depictions of the upcoming pattern from the GFS.  The 1st double map is the ensemble mean and the white line shows the operational GFS run.  The 2nd map is the actual detailed operational run.  If that would verify, we'd be looking a a rain event sometime in the 2 week hence period as that closed 500 mb low moves over PA!

 Now that is one deep trough.....too deep realistically for this time of year!

The last map below shows the forecast temps for Independence Day.  A pronounced NW flow will lead to low humidities (not as low as this past Thursday and Friday, but still comfy) and moderate temps.  If we don't hit 90F Saturday, I do not think we will not hit 90F for the foreseeable future.

In closing, as we celebrate our nation's 235th birthday, enjoy your family, friends, cookouts, outdoor excursions, baseball events, democratic depravity from the liberal left, or whatever else may be on your holiday weekend agenda...and may I suggest that you still have 3 chances to view the Harrisburg Symphony Orchestra's salute to Independence Day...including their marvelous rendition of the 1812 Overture, which as the maestro reminds us is traditionally performed during July 4 celebrations, but was actually written by a Russian composer detailing the Russian War for its own independence, (kinda ironic don't ya think...)....remember our great country, and although it does have some flaws, is still the greatest sovereign nation on planet earth. 

Happy July 4!

Smitty

AA:  Warm Saturday, showers Sunday, cooling and drying Monday (good grillin' wx!), nice wx with moderate heat and humidity for next week.  Have a great 4th my friend!