Changing of the Guard

Wow!  What a difference a couple of weeks make!  Bright blue skies, blinding sun angles, crisp autumnal feel to the air, and the dreaded static electrical shock getting in and out of my car!  In fact, as I sit here and type this, the NWS in State College has issued a Frost Advisory for us tonight.  With clear skies and light winds, frost is a near certainty in many locales in our region.  An even colder air mass will invade Sunday, but I do not think freezing temps will be accomplished as the winds will keep the air well mixed...but Sunday will sure feel cold!  Then, 10 days hence, if this were mid November or later, the much anticipated "S" word would surface...and it will for the mountains of PA next weekend.  Let me explain...

First...the sunrise temps progged for Friday morning...quite chilly to be sure!

Now, the Euro's take on the upper air pattern for Sunday...very low heights for this time of year...

The flow is straight out of Hudson's Bay!  And the GFS is in remarkable agreement...

So confidence is high that Sunday will feel quite autumnal, borderline wintry...and the surface temp anomalies for Sunday...first the Euro...20°F below norms will keep temps in low 40s Sunday if this verifies...

...and the GFS is again in agreement...just not quite as cold.

But what really gets interesting is next weekend...although 10 days out...very interesting!  Here is a classic upper air set-up for a nor'easter as per the Euro...a bit disjointed, but quite intriguing!

And the subsequent surface pressures...big high to the north and a coastal development.  I80 north needs to be attentive to be sure...

The GFS is even more bullish...with crazy height falls crashing as cold air pours into a coastal low!

OK...enough already...I know!  Calm down Smitty, it's only Rocktober.  So since I didn't blog about Michael, the 3rd strongest storm with deepest pressure to make landfall in the US mainland, I'll leave you with this hurricane rocker...enjoy!  

Enjoy your fall-like weather!

Smitty

AA:  Sure hope the Astros and the Brew Crew can keep things going for some bonus baseball.  Looking more and more like a 3,000 mile cross country World Series!