Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
With yesterday's heavy showers passing through our area delivering a record 1.76" of rain to KMDT, our local climatological station, Harrisburg has now officially surpassed the previous wettest year of 1972 (59.27") by measuring a total of 59.90" of liquid sunshine to date for the year. So, with literally the entire fall season yet ahead of us (autumnal equinox occurred Friday morning at 5:05 am EDT) in this calendar year of 2011, KMDT should establish an annual rainfall record that will most certainly be very difficult to match or exceed in any of our lifetimes! Just look at the graphic below which is now updated for yesterday's rainfall! The dark green indicates the extreme rains from this past summer! The rainfall has been tropical in nature as you can see the last few days have in the above normal category temperature wise and when the flow comes off the SE Atlantic at this time of year, very heavy downpours can materialize.
This weekend looks to now almost certainly keep the heaviest rains off to our east as a rogue tropical system moves up along the east coast. Here is a close-up of the Mid-Atlantic coast for Sunday afternoon. Note the storm system moving along the NJ coast. Once to our latitude, this should allow for any chance of the tropical rains associated with it to cease in our area. In addition, most of the heavy rain is now progged to fall well to our east as seen in the 2nd graphic!
Rainfall through Sunday pm....that little white speck in Cumberland County isn't quite Mechanicsburg, but its close enough and the CD-Mechanicsburg football game now slated for 4 pm Sunday appears to be dry....for the time being!
As for later in this upcoming week, the first part of the week will be unsettled as we have a strong upper low stuck in the upper Midwest which will be affecting our sensible daily weather through Wednesday. Look at the movement of this low from Sunday to Wednesday. Painfully slow!
First Sunday's 500 mb chart:
Now Wednesday's 500 mb prog from the GFS:
And just as the upper low lifts and fills, some energy in what becomes some fast jet stream flow nearby has some embedded shortwaves, one predicted to come through next Friday night. Now timing these things that far in advance is not very accurate, but the model is suggesting that as another trough established itself in the eastern US, a brief period of unsettled wx will accompany said trough. Let's hope this doesn't happen in sync with what could be a classic CD v CDE match-up next Friday night at Landis! Note the shortwave (X) is prime position (Ohio valley) to spin up some little weather spoiler!
Ahhhh yes, Friday night lights. Last evening was interesting. I learned several things as I always do with experiences over time. How about this signal from the football white-hat indicating a penalty.....one open hand placed behind his head; elbow out to the side. Anyone? Anyone? Answer: Improperly equipped player. How about this one? The moving and crossing of hands (like incomplete pass) behind the lower back of the white-hat? Anyone? Anyone? Answer: Sideline warning. Almost all other officials use the NCAA and NFL signal of arms out to side and down in a shoving back motion. However, this is the proper National HS Federation signal that was used last evening.
In closing, as I review my week of weather and all things, it is with great sadness, but also great joy that I remember one of CD's finest. What makes most business and industries operate efficiently is seldom the "big-wigs", but the unheralded support staffs! One such stalwart of our custodial staff passed from this world earlier this week. As a young teacher at LJHS, Carol was one that came across as one of the most happy go-lucky people I ever met. She came to work, did her job like the little spitfire she was, helped out any and all that needed it or not and did it all again the next day! With a smile and a bubbly attitude even when she wasn't feeling well! When walking into Landis, I could hear that gruff voice yell across the din..."Hey Dennis", and always had time to ask how I and my 2 little kids (not so little anymore!) were doing....always! Carol was a pillar at Linglestown Junior/Middle as well as the district and she will be sorely missed. Regardless of the situation, Carol took the bull by the horns, played the cards dealt to her, was a straight shooter, didn't beat around the bush (can I get anymore cliches in here?) and most importantly did her job. Everyday! RIP Carol.
Have a great week's end!
Smitty
AA: Unsettled through mid-week, but not too much rain. Most stays off to our south and east. Then a front will pass through early Wednesday giving some drying to us. Might have more wet wx for next weekend? Cooler to be sure.
Just a very brief post on what will be closely watched this weekend as a tropical feed from the SE coast brings large amounts of rain JUST TO OUR SOUTH and EAST! As for kickoff this evening, we are looking at showers, potentially heavy, at any time. There is a very real chance that the games will be played in rain free conditions or during a brief torrential downpour! One safe bet is that it will be wet as the WRF indicates a widespread area of drizzle as indicated by the purple color over central PA. Note just to the south is the advancement of the real concern over the weekend.
Today's wet wx is compliments of a long fetch SE flow bringing the humidity from the tropical Atlantic as seen below.
Both the NAM and the global GFS see the heavy rain event just to our SE; the NAM a bit further west than the GFS. Here, see for yourselves.....first the GFS (rainfall through Monday).
And now the NAM:
You can see the precip nudging just a tad westward with the more regional analysis....
Anyway, have a great weekend and be careful of any falling satellite debris and watch out for faster than light moving neutrinos!
Smitty
AA: A wet weekend...but maybe just damp! Keep your eyes to the skies for a falling satellite! Try to catch a neutrino...almost as fun as snipe hunting!
Earlier in the week, I was not as bullish about the amount of rain that some of the modeling had for the eastern part of the US for later this week. Now, I'm getting a bit concerned for another expansive rain shield along the eastern seaboard in points inland. Below is the most recent visible satellite pic from Tuesday afternoon. Clearly, you can note the cyclone in the northern plains. That storm and its associated upper air support will slowly migrate SE into the Ohio valley and become cut-off from the main flow of the jet stream which will be well to the north through southern O Canada. It is that circulation that will pump vast amounts of deep tropical air northward into our area not too dissimilar from what happened 2 weeks back!
Here is the 500 mb upper air prog for Friday evening. I do believe Friday Night Lights will be a bit on the soggy side this week! Note the jet stream (where the isobars are close together) is flowing well to the north of the upper low over the lower lakes.
And lastly, here is the GFS forecast for total precip for the next 8 days. Most of this precip will fall by Sunday. We are looking at a 2-4"/3-5" rain event for the eastern portion of PA. That soggy ground will then set the stage for what might be a return to some active tropical weather for the end of September and the beginning of October. But kids, that's a different story for a different day!
I just thought maybe you all could see graphically what many of us saw personally! This is a satellite derived image of the rainfall from both Irene and the remnants of Lee! Ouch!!
In closing, I think that it was awesome that Derek Jeter achieved entry into the 3,000 hit club the same year Mariano Rivera earned the all-time saves title by passing Trevor Hoffman with 602. Hoffman, however, does have about 2 dozen more "perfect" saves for what that is worth. I'm not a big Yankees fan, but Jeter and Mo have been teammates for 15 years and were some of the best in their business for their respective positions. But from a Philly standpoint, I think Michael Jack and Lefty might surpass Mo and Jeter as to the best 2 teammates in recent baseball memory.....just a thought.
Have a good mid-week period.
Smitty
AA: More rain is on the way....unfortunately! Jeter and Rivera or Carlton and Schmidt...what do you think?
