Islands of Cool in a Sea of Warmth

Upon the breaking of dawn Tuesday morn, a widespread frost greeted most of us here in south central PA.  In fact, the actual air temp reached 32°F at the York-Thomasville airport official NWS reporting station.  However, that frost will be the exception rather than the norm in the upcoming 10 days.  In fact, temps should rally into the low 70s by early afternoon.  I always like to look at the progged 850 mb temps to get a feel for where the surface temps will be.  Remember, the 850 mb level roughly corresponds to about the 5000' level where surface conditions/friction/terrain, etc doesn't affect the modeling as it does at the 900 mb level and obviously the surface.  Here are this afternoon's 850 temps for our region...

Two things to note above; the front running from On Wisconsin down SW to the Okie from Muskogee and the hurricane that will affect Bermuda on Thursday, Hurricane Nicole, currently a Cat 2 storm with 100 mph winds.  Behind the cold front, the air mass over the Dakotas is quite cool for this time of year.  However, as it migrates east and lifts north of PA, it will moderate and give us a day that is merely a degree or 2 below the 30 year seasonal norms.  Currently our daily normal max is  65°F while our daily min is 46°F for KMDT.  Here is the 850 progged anomalies for Friday...

From the above map, it is clearly evident that warmth is again building over the western interior States and will continue to building into next week.  Here is the 850 mb temp anomaly for Monday...

So expect some warmth at the surface in these parts for next week as a major storm in the middle part of the country develops.  Here is what the storm system looks like at the 850 mb level on Friday...

...and the progged surface map for the same time...

The Okies from Muskogee will be on the cold side of the low with a stiff north wind advecting cold Canadian air down the plains while we will be enjoying a warm SW flow.  Stubborn high pressure over New England will reluctantly recede to the NE and thus some light overrunning precip will occur and the true warmth will be difficult to reach the surface east of the Appalachian Mtns.

In fact, looking at the CFSv2, the latter part of October remains warm in the east while the western US cools a bit...just a few islands of cool in a sea of warmth.

OK...gotta run!  Maybe for the hills if you believe Al and Hill from their comments at yesterday's Florida gathering...totally insane that politicians seem to be able to comment on one of the most complex scientific topics known to man; earth's climate system!  It's been 11 years now since a major CAT 3 or larger storm has struck the US (Wilma was last in late October, 2005).  Yes, Matthew was a powerful storm and its damage incredible, but it's not as extraordinary as these 2 political hacks would have you believe!  When viewing the graphic below, keep in mind that coastal development has exploded in the recent decades and that there is far more opportunity for greater economic insured loss to be incurred now than back 50-100 years ago.  

I'll leave y'all with this country classic!  Enjoy!

Smitty

AA:  A couple chilly mornings, but overall a warm and dry pattern will persist through the remainder of October...at least from my seat.