Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
My song choice is easy tonight...We're Living on the Edge! As this storm has evolved numerically this past week, we here in south central PA have gone from 2'+ of wind swept powder to 1" slop with mostly a raw rain...the truth likely lies somewhere in between.
As like last evening, very few maps. But one I'd like to dive into...The Race is On...uh, oh, another song reference! Sorry, I digress...
If the arctic high ridges faster and further east than the surface low and upper air support; game on for a heavy snowfall. If, however, the southern low begins to phase with the cold baroclinicity diving from the north country and tries to attack & warm the digging arctic air mass fruitlessly, ice will be the call. Mathematically, I'm sure these software programmers are all over the thermodynamics; there is no question in my mind! Stochastically, a push here and a pull there is all that is needed for a boom/bust forecast! We are literally in the battle zone for precip types! The front thump will be the snow accumulation; sleet and freezing rain will rule the remainder of the fast moving disturbance.
And as mentioned before, clear the slop; otherwise plan on being a brick layer/mover/melter...If we get 4" of snow/ice, I truly believe we will see sub zero temps both Monday and Tuesday am...
Fun stuff! Go Rams and Chiefs!
I'm out...by the way...went with my 2nd song reference...
Smitty
AA: Gut call Timmy; you'll have 2-4" more accumulation of "stuff" than Kay and I! My field mower wants to do it when the ground is frozen this year...imagine that!
Guidance. That's what numerical modeling is...just that...GUIDANCE. If all weather forecasting was simply interpreting the models, it's not all that much fun. But to try to interpret trends, understand certain biases of said modeling, and ultimately understand the climatology of where one is located (I have lived here (KMDT) essentially all my life with the lone exception of PSU), now that is the challenge that I most certainly enjoy! Frankly, as most of you know, I view these numerical models of the atmosphere most everyday; not every run, but most everyday. With that said, this upcoming storm for the weekend has been incredibly consistent with the modeling in regards to the following: our area will receive about 1.5-2.0" of precipitation! All global and now recently regional models have been consistent that this will be a dandy for winter precip! But how does it fall Smitty? To the ground, of course, in various forms over the next 72 hours will be my reply...please let me explain...
A week ago, the Euro model hammered us with a 2' blast of winter's worst; all snow and I shared that pic with my iMessage group...because that's what I do. That got some eyes raised I do believe...including mine as the previous runs have kept this mundane winter to date pushing through MLK Day. But not so fast! Oh no; pattern change and quick it was. Within a day, all the global models had a similar fate; heavy snowfall for PA and points north and east...
Then the model game began; oh no...north; oh no...south; oh no...warm; oh no...Eagles lost (sorry).
So what's the point that I've read this far? After this evening's "skiff" as I like to call these overrunning events, the Saturday night into Sunday storm WILL be an ordeal! Whenever a sub 1000 mb (with juice) low pushes south of PA with a 1030-1040 mb high "bananing" over Quebec, be aware! I'm still looking at a Saturday afternoon-evening thump of snow, followed by a prolonged period of pingers (sleet), then sleet and freezing rain to glaze everything that will make Mr. Heat Miser quite happy! And then for some kicks and giggles, another 1-2" of wind blown powder being accompanied by the arctic emperor of the north. For what it is worth, I do not believe the mercury (Hg) at KMDT will reach 32°F until Wednesday once the precip begins in earnest (or in Harrisburg). And come Sunday, a biting cold NNW wind will advect flash freeze conditions into our region very quickly. So whatever is on walks and drives, get it pushed away so as to not have a glacier reminding you of the prior weekend a week hence!
One map...please understand this includes sleet, freezing rain (problem), and of course a heavy front thump of snow.
As always thanks for reading...and many tell me they like the music better than my Wx talk...so I hope y'all enjoy this; these chicks know how to rock!...Seasons change with their scenery!
Be safe,
Smitty
AA: Weekend storm WILL be the most impactful of this winter I do believe...comparable to VD 2007 storm thanks to the flash freeze component Sunday pm. Go Chiefs and Rams!
Just a very quick update as to my thoughts as y'all will hear many different ideas from many different sources...My thoughts are as follows:
1- Uncertainty remains as to frozen precip types and amounts
2- Plain rain will be difficult here with a big high to the north and arctic air pressing strongly
3- Confidence is gaining as to a very impactful storm Saturday evening into Monday
4-Very high confidence to bundle up and clear things quickly Sunday before a flash freeze occurs!
The maps...Euro ensembles as to the low pressure's location...uncertainty.
...and where it moves to 6 hours later...note how the surface low stays south of PA and keeps PA in the cold air, at the very least at the surface.
As for temps, the warmest progged by the Euro is Sunday morning where a hodgepodge of precip types will be falling in these parts...but the temps will be upper 20s to near 30°F...you do the math.
And by nightfall...well...brrrr...and this doesn't include the gusty NNW winds! A good time to watch football if you have everything cleared!
I am humbled by the many comments from y'all who read these and like to hear my ideas on things. The one adage I have seen fairly consistent over the years is "Predict the high, predict the snow"...and with a 1035 mb high in Quebec and and 1042+ arctic high plunging into the Great Lakes, cold air is abundant at all levels...so time will tell. I do think this will be a rather impactful winter event...and that is my call.
Enjoy this old jazz tune as did I looking for an appropriate ditty...
Smitty
AA: Still a 2" precursor snow Thursday night into Friday morn to our impactful snow, sleet, frz rain mess to concrete by Sunday night!
Just a very brief post to let y'all, my loyal readers know, that once past this weekend, the easy part of the forecast is "cold". The front part of all of this is the Thursday night warm advection snow that should be a nice 2-4" in our region followed by a weak reinforcement of polar air setting the stage for a slop storm that is likely to deliver snow, sleet, freezing rain, and end as drizzle. After that for the next couple of weeks, bundle up and buckle up...just a few quick maps and minimal comments...
First, the Thursday snow progged by the Euro...a similar event that we just experienced...albeit slightly more robust I do believe.
That will be followed by the slop storm for the Saturday night into Sunday time frame...this will need to be better studied closer to event...gut call; thump snow, sleet & freezing rain, end as light rain and drizzle...
Then here comes the cold...first for the AFC Championship game in KC...c'mon Andy, take care of those Pats...brrrr...
Then without getting into details...cold here and getting colder! Next week...(5 day average)...
And the following week to end out January...Barney purple cold is expanding...Not only that, the SE ridge is setting up a nice baroclinicity (storm track) up along the east coast. A stormy pattern look simply by noting the temps. Brrrrr...
FYI, a total lunar eclipse this Sunday night...click on the link if that sort of thing is of interest to you. You can go down many rabbit holes, but this one is a good one to investigate...IMHO!
OK...I'm out. For my Lanco pal, sorry about the cold; this could rival 1977-78 type cold if the meteo medusas have their way.
Enjoy Gordon Lightfoot...and your mid-week!
Smitty
AA: Thursday night light snow, Saturday night slop storm, then getting pretty cold for forseeable future...
