Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
For those of you have followed along for the last several posts, I've tried to make it known that a genuine January thaw was on the way...and tonight as I type, it is on the proverbial doorstep. In fact, I believe that Harrisburg has seen its last flakes (of snow that is) for this month and likely into the first week of February. However, I do not believe that winter is over; not by a long-shot. Let's take a quick look at the modeling of the 5000' temps for the next several 5 day increments. We will use the Euro as our model and go forward out to February 3...
Saturday to next Thursday; keep in mind these anomalies are in Celsius, so basically multiply by 2 to get rough Fahrenheit temps. Also keep in mind that normals are in the upper 30s to near 40 for maxes at this stage of the game...
Now, Thursday through next weekend...
And lastly into the first week of February using the Euro ensembles...
So, from this seat, a slow to moderate thaw looks to be in store for these parts. But the overwhelming signal is no real snow storms on the foreseeable horizon. In fact, the weather looks to be rather "peaceful" for late January...enjoy it and this, too. Not bad for a tribute band...!
I'm out...
Smitty
AA: Peaceful, Easy Feelings about the weather rule the next 2-3 weeks...
After our very brief "Farm Show" thaw, the atmosphere quickly reminded us that we are in mid January; not mid-April with blustery NW winds ushering in arctic air and laying down the arctic carpet for many places just to our north and west. In fact, a " boots on the ground" report from a loyal reader observed in western PA stated that the wx went from drenching rains with temps in the 60s to wind blown snows with ~5" accumulation by morning along with a notable ~30ºF T drop IN ONE HOUR! Meanwhile, the brief thaw wiped out the "bomb-cyclone" snow pack along the east coast and allowed for many of the rivers and creeks to move some of their discharge downstream, albeit in a rather spectacular ice-jam fashion! In fact, check out this ice jam on the Ausable River in the Adirondacks of NY! Kay and I a few years back hiked along this river for a brief jaunt and I can only imagine the fury this river can unleash when prompted to do so by nature. Impressive!
Here is the recent snow cover first across the entire country...
...and locally here in PA...
And the snow pack makes a huge difference for the surface temps...take a look as of this writing. There is still a few hours for those temps to drop over the freshly fallen snow...
Now we will have a cold week in front of us; however, a true thaw likely through the end of this month is on the way for the eastern US. What I did was to look at the analog years for Day 11 from the "super-ensembles" and used the January month years to see what those years held in January. For those of you who do not like January thaws, this is not good news. First, here is the map from CPC (climate prediction center) I used for the years. Note the dates in the lower right hand corner...
Then I used NOAA's PSD (Physical Science Division) analysis and plotting to see how these Januarys stacked up...
And after our first upcoming 5 days...
...the modeling does suggest a major warm up is in store for places here in the east. Five day average temps 1 mile up ending 10 days hence...
So Smitty, are you saying winter is over? Nah...not at all, but as I did state earlier, the coldest of winter is past once we get beyond this disjointed system mid-week and the eastern trough will lift northeast allowing an upper air ridge to likely become established here in the east bringing above normal temps for the remainder of the month. But rest assured, we all know what February and March can do in these parts. Speaking of the mid-week disjointed system...the modeling is not impressed...
OK...I'm off to PF to move my body and get the blood flowing since sitting here pounding a keyboard generates minimal blood necessary for optimal performance. I rely on my morning cups of java for that kick start. I'll leave y'all with this "January Hymn" from The Decembrists...enjoy.
And for those of you so inclined, enjoy Day 2 of the NFL's divisional playoffs. Man could the Eagles play any worse and still walk away with a W?
Smitty
AA: A cold week lies ahead with a skiff of snow mid-week. Then a return to normal temps at first, then much above normal temps likely to close out January.
