Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
The title is in reference to an annual friendly wager (which by the way I lose EVERY year) concerning the yearlong snowfall total at KMDT. Well, I thought I was styling as December played out as I gave 35" as the over/under and my compadre choose the over...(I believe I told him El Nino winters are generally wet; just trying to attain some semblance of forecasting). Nada snow through the middle of January and I was feeling pretty good! Then...BAM...BLIZZARD of historical proportions. A year's worth of snow in one storm...unreal! In case your memory is REAL SHORT...a Category 4; Crippling Event! (all of the font enhancements for you Yokes!)
Personally, I believe we have "on tap" yet another snowstorm within a few days of St. Paddy's celebrations. I was with my siblings the other evening discussing the major snowfall in 1956 when my parents returned home from the week long stay in the hospital from the 2nd week of March birth of my elder twin bros! The stories were humorous; but I mentioned that 1956 was an analog year in terms of an El Nino year. Two years later; repeat! I believe there was also a major snowfall in 1967 which also was an El Nino year where it was crashing to a cooler Pacific. I would have to digress and research this, but I want to disseminate this info for my loyal minions so I can catch a few buckets this evening of this year's March Madness...By the way, here is the 1956 event; notable only Yokes...
If the Euro control run of the ensembles verifies, this will notable and then some!
If the Canuck verifies, this would be nasty...I believe this is just a tad too far west! I honestly believe I-81 to I-78 to southern New England will bear the brunt of this later winter/early spring storm.
And for a touch of true irony, the Vernal Equinox will occur Sunday at 12:30 am EDT when the vertical rays of the sun will strike earth's equator and continue northward! But come Monday morning at 12:30 am EDT, it sure won't look too spring-like outside; no way, no how... not at least if you believe the top 15 analogs from the 72 hour run of the GFS. Here is the mean snowfall accums from the top 15 analogs...
So RSC, ABC or LBC or FeHillBC? I'm kinda fond of 'em all! I'm sure you're real surprised...Al's or Fed Tap works too. And I did just mention irony (as I did last time too), so I will leave y'all with this Alanis Morissette 1995 ditty. I don't think she mentioned ..."It's like a foot of snow on the first day spring..." Enjoy!
And enjoy this first day of spring, March Madness, PIAA State BB Championships weekend!
Smitty
AA: Good day for a fantasy baseball draft; snowy outside, baseball fever inside!
One of my favorite scenes from one of my favorite movies...
And it is now becoming increasingly more likely that this unique winter of 2015-16 will not go quietly! Earlier in the week, I shared with my daily encounterees that ALL of the global models had some type of winter mischief up their numerical sleeve! Then, as usual this past winter, the models were all over the place. Well, it is now looking more and more likely, at least to me, that what would be a major winter event for January will affect our region Palm Sunday into Monday...please let me explain...1st, as some of you know, I like to use analogs and the #1 analog using the GFS for this upcoming weekend delivered this in terms of snowfall!
Here is the upper air and surface low low-cation (top left) for those of you who like this sort of stuff...
And although the models lost this storm the last 36 hours, it's a comin' back. First, take a look at the Euro from overnight (in terms of snowfall)...
And the Euro from this afternoon...
And the GFS from earlier today...
And the latest GFS run...and this will continue to shift further west IMHO...
And just humor me with yet another comparison. The NAM was best with the blizzard earlier this year; many in the field "knock" the NAM until it's with 12-18 hours of an event. Well, I believe the NAM is pretty good with large scale atmospheric synoptics even at its 84 hour end. Compare the low location between the GFS and the NAM at 84 hours...1st the GFS...note the storm forming off the GA-SC coast...
Now look where the NAM has the low...western GA/eastern Sweet Home Alabama...
And I've had many tell me that it's too warm for snow to accumulate; well not when temps are in the upper 20s and low 30s and AT NIGHT when the snow is likely to be the heaviest...look at the 850 mb temp anomaly for early next week (the graphic below is once the core of cold is lifting out NE)...You'll know it's plenty cold come Friday/Saturday as a direct discharge of arctic air will come straight down from O' Canada, more specifically, from frozen Hudson Bay!
But, not all bad; note the warm-up over the plains heading east; however, the warmth will be blunted by the wet/white ground for a bit once again (ie. a "Pennsylvania Spring"). Hey don't shoot the messenger; just trying to keep those who want to be informed just that. So I'll check out with this 1989 song released on one of my favorite albums...Don Henley's "The End of the Innocence". This is what the winter MIGHT be screaming on the Vernal Equinox in these parts...and Isn't it Ironic...I could play that one too, but I'll stick with my 1st thought! Enjoy!
And enjoy your Thursday...dangerously close to the end of the work week!
Smitty
AA: Monitoring what might be a memorable end to a very unique winter; warmest December, heaviest snowfall in January, top 5 wettest D-F periods...and now this. It will give you time to prep the mowers for what will be a warm April once we get past the 1st week! Won't be freezing my butt off watching the Os in April! Nor will BoSox fans in Beantown!
