Unofficial Start Of Summer

Memorial Day means many things to many people; picnics, grilling, camping, beach, parades, veteran ceremonies (most important!), long weekend...but it also is viewed as the "unofficial start of summer weather".  Memorial Day 2015 will not disappoint!  Let me explain...

As I sit here and gather my thoughts and maps, the current air mass in place is quite cool and dry for this time of year.  Here is a snapshot of the current warnings and advisories over the CONUS.  Note the heavy rains progged for the southern plains while here in the northeast, we are being invaded by frosty weather...the deep navy colors are freeze warnings while the brighter blues are frost advisories.

Here are the current 2 am temps...first of all centered on New England...

...and now centered on our immediate area...

With our days now lasting nearly 14.75 hours, it is quite difficult for temps to drop very low before  'ol sol makes his appearance and begins to warm the earth once again.  So temps in the 30s are quite impressive in PA and a few spots dropping into the 20s by 5 am will be anomalous. My "old-timer" acquaintances who have lived in northern PA have always mentioned "ya can't grow a good tomato in northern PA"!  With such a short growing season, no doubt...

Here is the reason for the rains in Texas and the chill here in the northeast...the 500 mb configuration.  The current trough over the northeast and the vigorously digging trough into southern California and the deserts of the SW...By the way, yesterday afternoon during the max heating of the day, many locations set record min maxes for the day!

Record statement from San Diego wx office...chilly viewing of the heavens at Mt. Palomar!

But by Memorial Day, the 500 mb pattern will switch bathing the east in a "Bermuda High" type set-up...take a look...

This will allow temps to rather quickly warm so that we are looking at mid-upper 80s M-Th timeframe...I would not be surprised to see a 90ºF reading in these parts...the map below indicates the above normal temps here in the northeast while the wet ground in TX keeps temps below the seasonal norms there...

This is quite a turnaround from our current anomalies...15-25ºF below norms this early morning in PA and New York...

And once the turnaround occurs with these temps, the GFS ensembles suggest they will be here well into June!  Take a look...

We are dry through Memorial Day...protected by the build ridge aloft...

But with weakening and dying fronts attacking the Bermuda High from the north and west, we will see some showers and thunderstorms later next next and the "weakness" in the atmosphere will likely allow for numerous threats of summer-like convection through the next weekend and beyond...total precip next 10 days...only the coastal plain will likely remain dry and frankly...hot!

So that is my synopsis and I'm sticking to it...I hope everyone has a safe and enjoyable Memorial Day weekend and gives at the very least some thought as to why we celebrate this last Monday in May.

And I'll leave you with this Jackson Browne political commentary...this is a great song, enjoy!

Here comes summer...

Smitty

AA:  Cool start to the weekend; becoming quite summery by Memorial Day.  Dry though next Tuesday or Wednesday, then showers are more and more likely.  Enjoy the time with your growing family...new memories and traditions!