The water vapor image above shows very nicely ALL of the fuel the atmosphere is holding in terms of the creation of showers and thunderstorms over the upcoming several days. The strong front that is currently over the Midwest will slowly move eastward over the next 36 hours. As it does, this will most certainly create the little bit of umph to get the air in our area to discharge storms later Sunday and all day Labor Day. If you scrutinize the WV image, you'll see the flow pattern across the US and note that the flow is parallel to the front (in IA and WI) and that is why the front will limp through PA later tomorrow. It is also easy to see Lee swirling in the northern gulf. Note the pocket of very dry air at the western edge of the map on the NV CA border marking the driest place in North America; Death Valley!
The guidance for Lee is very erratic at best. However, the global models have been consistent in moving Lee up the spine of the Appalachians delivering copious amounts of rainfall over the eastern US this upcoming week. First the "spaghetti" looking guidance from the tropical models for Lee. Note how some of the models take this storm to SE TX, some to MO, and some to PA and points northeast......
And now the total rainfall modeled by the GFS through next weekend. Central and southeastern PA is looking at ~5" of rain.....and that is if Katia stays out to sea....and that is a HUGE IF since 2 of the global models are now beginning to bring Katia much further west and the moisture if not the wind field will certainly have an impact on the along the coast and possibly a bit inland.
Here is the modeling for Katia again first with the "spaghetti" of the tropical models.
If the trough out over the northern plains translates across the US and deepens as it does so, then the recurve of Katia is nearly certain. However, if that trough "misses" Katia, all bets are off and Katia could and more likely will impact the coastal US. Yesterday it was appearing the trough would deflect Katia towards the fish. Today, the consensus is not as great. So we will see how the global pattern evolves. Here is the worst global model where Katia is farthest south and west and would most certainly affect the eastern US, quite adversely I might add. This is the UKMET (England's) and is often capable of sniffing out the global patterns as astutely as the Euro and the GFS. That map below is ugly for any/all east coast interests. Note the placement of Lee in TN with the inverted trough moving into OH and sw PA! That map is actually very exciting in a "sick" way!
Below if the official forecast map for Wednesday. If Katia is a bit further south and west at that point, then the moisture from Katia in the upper levels of the atmosphere will most certainly become entrained into the now baroclinic Lee.
That upper level scenario would look something like this......note how the isobars join from Katia to the upper level weakness over the TN Valley. This is potentially a very wet scenario for the piedmont as the air would orographically be lifted from sea level!
So....much to watch this weekend weatherwise. Enjoy your Labor Day weekend. Kind of a misnomer since at least 1 in 10 Americans are not laboring in this political policy crushing economy. Maybe in 14 months, the public will choose for economic growth and not these progressive socialistic ideals that have gotten most of the world economy in the tank! This is the UE rate in PA...
Have a great Sunday!
Smitty
AA: Showers and storms frequent through Monday. Then watching the moisture from Lee Tuesday pm to Thursday. Then watching Katia. We are lucky to have a job this labor day holiday!
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