Historic Flood Update

This is just a quick update for all in the historic flood we are now experiencing as a result of tropical moisture interacting with a strong mid/upper level difluent jet running SW to NE thanks to the trough and the old circulation of tropical storm Lee!  This is the radar derived totals to this point since 3 am yesterday morning....

And there is more yet to come as the training showers and storms are setting up to once again take aim in our general area......may they not fall over the "red" zone above, but it sure looks like ~2"+ is almost a sure bet by this evening in many locations in the Harrisburg area!  This is the Sterling VA radar as this is the source of our heavy rain.

And here is the official forecast from HPC for the 24 hours ending 8 am Friday morning....

And here is what I've personally reported over the last 2 weeks!  Simply incredible!

From a very personal standpoint, Kay and I truly feel for those of you who are dealing with flooding conditions of whatever proportion.  This flooding event is statistically a 1 in 100 yr event at least and more likely going to approach the 1:500 yr event like Hurricane Agnes was in 1972.  There was lots of hardship with that flooding I recall as a pup and I'm sure now as adults, these hardships are comparable to that massive flood.  It is incredible, but all of the major locations along the main stem of the Susquehanna are forecast to approach the Agnes record of 1972.  Here is the latest MARFC prediction for Harrisburg.....this would be the 3rd highest crest at Harrisburg since records began 120 years ago!  If the rains continue as forecast by HPC, it appears 30' would not be out of the question!

And the historical flood of the Swatara Creek in lower Dauphin County....note how the forecast (green) is below the obs as of 6 am this morning!  Not good!

Take care everyone...and be safe!

Smitty

AA:  Living through weather history yet once again in the greater Harrisburg, York & Lebanon areas!