Sunday, August 28, 2011

Goodbye Irene

With Irene winding down, it appears that this storm has behaved pretty much as expected.  Much of the east coast experienced large scale beach erosion and the Delmarva was hit primarily at lowest tide.  The Delmarva, however, seemed to report the greatest number of small tornadoes as is so often the case with these mesoscale atmospheric gyres.  I have 2 graphics for you in terms of precip here in the Harrisburg area; the first is the radar derived precip from the State College Doppler Radar and the 2nd is cooperative observers reporting their storm totals as of 7 am.
And the co-op obs from Dauphin and surrounding counties.
If you're interested, here is the 24 graphic for rainfall in eastern PA, and the bulk of the Mid-Atlantic at our latitude.  This is radar derived as well which tends to overdo the precip amounts.
Streams will be receeding by Monday morning as evidenced by the river forecast for the Swatara Creek at Hershey.  The Susquehanna will crest later Wednesday but well below flood stage at Harrisburg.

I'm happy to say that once this storm departs, we are looking at nice weather for the 1st part of the upcoming work week.  Temps will be cool to start, but will moderate and actually become somewhat humid by the end of the week.  There will be a warm frontal passage Thursday as the humid air tries to make inroads into the northeast and with it will come a chance of showers, but nothing major from the seat at this point.  Here is the forecast map for Tuesday morning....our wx dominated by high pressure!
But if the Euro has her way, we may be playing out a scenario not too different than what we just experienced, although a pure parallel the coast track is very difficult to attain with these hurricanes.  But the carolinas need to be worried as we enter the peak of hurricane season and it appears the opportunity for storms to affect the east coast is much greater this year than it has been in our recent past.  Here is the Euro for next Wednesday, September 7.  Look what looms....
So, we say goodbye to Irene and watch and wait for Jose (just named), Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia......you get the picture......I leave y'all with this.....its been used so much...but not EC's version...
Have a good Sunday, and I hope all came through as unscathed as possible.

Smitty

AA:  A good storm, pretty much as expected.  1-3" rain for the most part across our area.  Gusty winds with some downed trees and powerlines.  Some smaller stream flooding as well.  Nice early week wx.  Becoming warmer and more humid by Friday with some showers likely Thursday as warm humid air invades.  Possible major hurricane in the Atlantic around Labor Day coming towards the states....again!

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