I start y'all off with the current IR satellite midday Wednesday. We are currently experiencing spectacular wx thanks to the cyclonic flow around the upper low over Quebec and driving cool and dry air equatorward as indicated by my red arrow. An upper level high pressure region is strengthening over the central and southern plains and will try to expand east. However, I believe that the consistent weakness in the east (trough) will keep the highest dew points and hottest air just to our SW. There is a relatively strong "Chinook" that is helping with the northward expansion of heat as I am showing with the red arrow over the northern Rockies. As air sinks from the 10-14K feet mountains, the air compresses and warms to the tune of ~5F per 1000 feet. This process can most certainly aid in the expansion of heat from the southern deserts of our country. Of course, the most obvious feature is tropical storm Arlene getting ready to make landfall along the Mexican coast just south of Brownsville, TX.
Enjoy Thursday and Friday. By Saturday, the heat will make in roads to our part of the country. In fact, I believe the high tide of the heat will be Saturday or maybe Sunday. This will correspond to the highest dew points as well. 3 graphics below is the 500 mb prog for Saturday evening. This is as far east as the 588 mb height line invades. The slight trough in subsequent days pushes that 588 mb height back to our SW and with it the hottest heat and greatest humidity. Good news for all both in PA and any beach bums heading to the DELMARVA beaches as the offshore WNW flow will downslope and keep temps nice and warm for those taking a dip in the big pond. It is not until late in the next week period where a pattern shift is likely to disrupt this flow in the jet stream pattern. Here is the high tide of heat as shown by the GFS modeled temps for Saturday afternoon. Note the extreme temps in the south and how east of the Appalachians in PA, we are holding onto slightly cooler air as compared just to our west.
Here are the highest dew points over the next 7 days as well. Again, the humidity will come back later Saturday making for a warm and humid Saturday night into Sunday. Dew points should approach 70F here in southern PA. But note the tongue of dry air pointing straight towards Erie and Ontario and with a little umph from the jet in a WNW direction, that dry DENSE air should help keep the warmer and less dense humid air pushed off to our SW. Here's hoping from my personal wishes.
Here is the farthest NE the 588 mb height line gets into PA (as promised). What this also means is that once that 588 mb retreats, an increasing chance of thundershowers will be on the docket with the heating of the day and the little vort maxes moving through the upper atmosphere and we sure could sure use some more rain again as we missed out on the good rains Tuesday with the frontal passage. A trace of rain is pathetic for the synoptic set up we had here in PA yesterday! Oh well.....
I did want to include a graphic or 2 of Arlene. She should not gain hurricane status before making landfall sometime Thursday.
The deep red above and grayish below is the very dense central overcast where the strongest convection is occurring in the cluster of thunderstorms making this a warm core tropical cyclone.
In closing, night has now fallen over a once world envy called Greece. In what amounts to an historic vote to instill extreme austerity measures over the next 5 years, the Euro seems to be in tact for a little while longer. Economically, the status quo is unsustainable. Instead of postponing the inevitable, in my opinion, it would be far smarter to prepare for a Greek default. Euro policymakers should follow an ordered default and re-structuring on Greek governmental and commercial debt obligations. Couple that with a bit of a relaxation of the austerity plans and Greece may have a fighting economic growth chance. A flat tax would be prudent as well....as would be in this country! Understand that this will not be easy – but at least it will not be as impossible as achieving the kind of austerity that Greece is being forced to follow. Face it, the entire world's investments are "banking" on Greece as shown below.
Especially Germany!
Enjoy this nice weather through the end of the week!
Smitty
AA: Nice and comfy through Friday and even most of Saturday. It will get hot and humid Sat pm and Sunday. Still warm, but not too hot for early next week until a pattern change sometime by the end of next week. Watch Phils sweep the RedSox as well!
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