Moving Towards the 4th

Water vapor images like the one from this morning shown above can offer lots of insights to how the atmosphere is moving and reacting to the various pressure differences across the globe.  The white areas are quite humid in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere whereas the black areas are dry as I have labeled.  The dry that is sitting over PA right now will inhibit any chance of rain for today but it is moving out getting replaced by the big blob of white just to our west.  However, waiting in the wings is that dry air from AB, SK, and MT to move in here for Thursday.  The HOT & dry air from the SW will make it into western PA by Friday, but according to most medium range models, the real heat will get cut off at the pass and not really make inroads past the Appalachians for but maybe one day and that would be Saturday.  Here is the National Radar that corresponds to the WV image from above.

Tuesday we will have a front pass through PA and with it deliver some potentially drenching thundershowers in the afternoon hours.  I really think the chance of any severe wx is limited as the instability with high CAPE will be limited for just a brief time directly ahead of the cold frontal passage.  We might see some gusty winds with the heavy rain as some downbursts will be created with heavy rainfall.  Here is the short term model for PA for tomorrow afternoon.  You can clearly see the front and its associated rainfall.  Personally, it is too difficult for the model to pinpoint EXACTLY where the drenching storms will pass, but the model is suggesting that there will be some rainfall with tomorrow's cold frontal passage.

Here is the NWS forecast national map for the approximate same time Tuesday.

Then, nice wx will move in for Wed-Friday with Thursday being the nicest day at the end of this week.  Here is the forecast for Thursday.

Warm air will then be on the move, but as I said earlier, the hottest of the heat will remain to our SW and although we may feel some of the heat Saturday, Sunday and Monday loom with the potential for a boundary to set up over us with low level easterly flow that could make the July 4th holiday rather murky and dull.....but that is a different story for a different day.

In closing, I found it rather odd that in this time of global warming, the Mt Washington (British Columbia) resort and lodge east of Vancouver will be open for skiing this July 4th weekend!  Those rowdy rioters need this outlet! This is the latest they've ever been open for skiing and snowboarding.  The graphic below shows the anomaly for snow extent in the land dominated northern hemisphere.  And the snow year which will end here Thursday (June 30), the 2011 anomaly is even higher!  Let's see how the global warming put a spin on this data and suggest this is due to the earth's climate warming!  Unbelievable!



Have a great beginning of the week.....

Smitty

AA:  Nice Monday, front will pass Tuesday with storms, Wed-Friday are nice with Thursday being the nicest of the nice!  Getting warmer and more humid by Saturday, but I think another front will get close to us and give a potentially dull July 4 holiday with easterly winds.  Remember, winds from the east, weather is least; winds from the west, weather is best!