Man Was I Wrong!

When I look at the guidance and the modeling for both the short term and the long range, I try to get a feel for how the sensible weather will manifest itself in that particular period.  Yesterday, and for TWO days, the modeling depicted a fairly unsettled Friday AND Sunday.  And to the disagreement of the water vapor loop I included yesterday, there was a slug of dry air aimed right at PA.  The models and the SIM RADAR said storms; the actual data/obs from the water vapor loop said "I will suppress convection!".  When trying to ascertain what the weather will be like in the short term, one must use both actual obs and the guidance.  The guidance was horrible for yesterday....again for TWO consecutive days.  So what does the actual obs say now?  Below is the water vapor pic for Saturday morning.

What y'all can't see is the looping of this snapshot.  Believe me, the big blob of white (water vapor) is moving towards PA for today and this afternoon.  The bulk of it will get suppressed by the strong mid level winds moving SE from Ontario.  By Sunday, we are looking at much drier air in the mid-levels once again which should support mostly sunny skies for the bulk of the daylight hours.....which is about 15 now as we approach the solstice!  Anyone feel they're leaning by 23.5 degrees from the vertical?  Just wondering....Now, below is the current radio detection and ranging image known to most as RADAR!

Note also the dry air still in place over the desert SW!  But the above image shows the complex of storms that will move east today and could spawn a few storms in our area by afternoon, but the bulk of this activity will stay south of PA.  The storm complex that is just off the shot in NE and KS will be our wx maker for Monday as Monday appears to be a rather cloudy and damp day with numerous showers and storms in/around PA.  The 4 frame graphic below shows the following in a clockwise fashion starting in the upper left:  The rain cooled air temps, some vigorous storms dropping much rain in 3 hr time, the total rainfall since Saturday morning, and the convergent winds right over PA...or a boundary for instability.

In summary, some afternoon storms today, a fairly nice day for Pop, and a fairly wet Monday.  That's what it look like from this chair.  You know, I hate being wrong about the wx....I really do.  Many people ask me my opinion about the weather.......I just simply try to explain what might occur based on past experiences and the guidance that master scientists develop for many to interpret.  It has always made me appreciate nature and the sometimes awesome power of nature.  As for trying to predict the wx, that is many times O so very,very humbling.....just like the last 2 days.  The wx was anything but what I thought would transpire.  Oh well.....I'll get back on the horse and try to keep y'all in the loop as to what MIGHT happen with the weather.  Maybe I was predisposed this past week with my youngest attending OCMD for the rite of passage known as Senior Week.  Or maybe I just had my head up my butt as some of you will contest!  No excuses, I do aim to please and be accurate!

Have a good week's end and remember to honor Pop on Sunday....and everyday for that matter!

Smitty



AA: Some storms Saturday afternoon, a fairly nice Father's Day, (watch the Yankees lose at Wrigley for the Sunday night ESPN game), and a soggy Monday with storms approaching by afternoon.