Friday Could be a Tad Stormy

Of course we can't have the pristine beautiful weather we just experienced for my 1st OFFICIAL DAY OF SUMMER VACATION! But weather is weather and Friday's may be a bit on the loud side at times.  The NWS Storms Prediction Unit has the areas to our south under the slight risk area for severe wx, but with this vigorous shortwave passing directly over PA, we may see some rather feisty storms pop up during the max heating of the day....even though clouds will rule the roost.  The map below shows the 500 mb vort max passing right through PA!

The graphic below shows the precip that has fallen in total over the last half year.  You can clearly see 2 things:  1.  The abundance of rain over the Mid-Mississippi Valley, the Ohio Valley, and up into the NE, and 2. The total lack of rain over the SW USA.  This is what has led to the tinder dry conditions in AZ, NM, and West TX and is shown clearly in this rainfall analysis from the past half year.  Hurricanes this year will be drought busters, especially if they can deliver the goods to west TX, and help infuse humidity to create orographic thunderstorms in the southern Rockies!  Just quite an interesting analysis....don't cha think?

And coupled with the graphic above, drought is widespread in that region of the country.  With apologies to Marty Robbins....Out in that west TX town of El Paso, I fell in love with much needed thunderstorms.  Nighttime would find me in Rosa's cantina, Music would play and the clouds would swirl.....sorry

As for next week, a piece of heat is forecast to break away from the hellish conditions of the desert SW over the last couple of weeks.  Dallas will actually stay below 90ºF I do believe one or two days next week as the heat is split towards the east to some minimal extent and back westward to a greater extent.  The map below shows the temps at 850 mb and clearly depicts a piece of the hot air being moved eastward through mid week.  This means temps will become hot and humidity will rise back to mid summer levels by the middle of next week.  Good for opening a swimming pool from what I understand!

As for further out into the misty distant future, the GFS operational is at odds with its own ensembles.  I am rooting for the operational to score a coup; however, most other global guidance suggests that we are looking at some heat again into the early weeks of July.  This should be nothing too far above normal, but most global signaling is suggesting heat to stay once to July.  That is a very TEPID call!  The white line shows the jet stream position from the primary model where the thinner red lines are the ensemble jet stream positions.

In closing, I read a rather unique trivial statistic that piqued my interest.  There have only been 3 instances in the last 35 years in the 4 major sports in North America where a team won a Game 7 on the road to win the world championship!  Last night the Boston Bruins won their Game 7 in Vancouver to earn the right to hoist Lord Stanley's Cup!  Two years prior, the Pittsburgh Penguins paraded around "The Joe" getting their names engraved into infamy.  The 3rd instance occurred back in 1979 (I was still in High School!) when "Pops" and his family went to Memorial Stadium on Loch Raven Blvd and 33rd St in Baltimore to claim Game 7 of the World Series!  The winning pitcher and saving pitchers both had ties to the team that won the world series next year!  The winning pitcher was one Grant Jackson with the save going to Teke who earned a 5 out save for the Pittsburgh Pirates.  I just found all of that very interesting!  Below is the MVP goalie Tim Thomas carrying the cup around Vancouver's ice.

So some weather, some sports, and some good music for those of you who hold a special place of El Paso in your hearts!

Have a GREAT summer vacation!

Smitty

AA:  Storms Friday and some more over the weekend, more so Sunday....then getting warmer by middle of next week.  A cooler air mass will invade next weekend, but heat will return for the first part of July.  Also, some sports trivia....have a good vacation buddy and enjoy the little one!