Double Trouble

When speaking about the weather, trouble can come in a variety of forms.  Although here in our local area where the weather should be relatively benign, there are 2 areas to monitor this week.  The first is a severe wx outbreak that will center itself in the northern plains and the Midwest while the 2nd area is the potential for a tropical storm development with a wave of low pressure that is moving NW towards the Texas coast.  That is actually not entirely bad news for the residents of Texas if that could push far enough west to produce some beneficial rains inland in the drought stricken region of the Lone Star State. 

When I hear "Double Trouble", I think of that classic blues rendition performed by many artists, my favorite of which is by Clapton at Budokan in 1980 recorded on the Album titled Just One Night....sorry I digress!

The first graphic is from the Storms Prediction Center (SPC) and their Day 2 outlook for severe weather.  A moderate issuance is nearly a sure bet when it comes to the matter of severe weather.  In fact Craig, it looks close to where Waterloo, IA and Albert Lea, MN is located!  Take a looksy....

I have also attached the predicted surface guidance for that day.  One place to watch for severe wx is where 1004 mb isobar pushes east of a progressing storm.  That pressure is located right in eastern IA and southern MN.

That area of severe weather will be spawned and helped with an anomalous deep trough spinning through the upper plains and Midwest as depicted by the numerical guidance as shown below with the 500 mb prediction.

That trough and associated surface reflection of storms and a progressive cold front will be here late Thursday and Friday.  Hopefully, the feistiness of the sensible weather will be less than what transpires in the Midwest where there could be over 100 tornadoes this week!  This will be a newsworthy weather story to be sure.  The map below shows where the front will be Friday morning and the 2nd surface map indicates high pressure moving in for next weekend giving us yet another beautiful weekend of weather. 

 And here is next weekend: airflow at all levels will be from O Canada advecting cool dry air southward into PA!

So what is the 2nd trouble?  The potential hurricane or tropical storm as shown by the map below indicating copious amounts of precip just east of TX in the Gulf of Mexico.  As mentioned earlier, a hurricane can have positive influences as well as it could bring higher moisture content to the desert SW USA.  During that same period, it appears the modeling is suggesting PA receives nearly 2 inches of rain, most of which will fall with the frontal passage Thursday and Friday.

In closing, I just want to wish a genuine "Happy Fathers Day" to all of you who are fathers or who will be in the not so distant future.  From the US government, here are some tidbits of Dada Data:

70.1 million....Estimated number of fathers across the nation.

25.3 million....Number of fathers who were part of married-couple families with children younger than 18 in 2010.

• 22% were raising three or more children younger than 18 (among married-couple family households only).
• 3% lived in someone else's home.

1.8 million....Number of single fathers in 2010; 15 percent of single parents were men.

• 9% were raising three or more children younger than 18.
• 46% were divorced, 30% were never married, 19% were separated, and 6% were widowed.
• 39% had an annual family income of $50,000 or more.

So there you have it....Happy Fathers Day!

Enjoy your Fathers Day Sunday!

Smitty

AA:  Severe weather early week Midwest will move towards us by Thursday/Friday.  Then a nice weekend for next weekend.  A hurricane or tropical storm could develop by next weekend east of Texas.