Short Waves in a Northwest Flow

Meteorologists often look for little clues as to what could be a "fly in the ointment" in an otherwise nice wx pattern.  A short wave or vorticity maximum is a progressive wave of smaller amplitude and wavelength as the more noticeable long Rosby Waves.  They move in the same direction as the basic current in which it is embedded and often induces upward vertical motion ahead of and near it. They are far more numerous than the long Rosby Waves and often disappear with height in the atmosphere.  However, their energy is often capable of producing showers and thundershowers when they pass nearby at this time of the year.  With all of that said, I've attached 2 maps of vort maxes passing near us this weekend; one Friday and one Sunday afternoon.  Note the yellow shading in the 500 mb maps below; these are areas that indicate vorticity (spin), or a short wave.  First, Friday's 500 mb prog:

 Here is Sunday evening's 500 mb prog:

 The Friday short wave has a bit more moisture to work with, so it looks to me as if showers may be numerous on Friday during the daylight hours, possibly including a rumble of thunder.

The vort max on Sunday has little moisture to work with, but I still believe we'll see some showers on Sunday as well.  Note the little kink in the isobar just to our south at the 700 mb level.  It most certainly WILL NOT be a rain out however on Sunday.

As for later next week, temps will certainly become warmer than they have been, but as both the Euro ensembles and the GFS ensembles indicate, there will be a trough to our west with a SW flow in the mid-levels coming at PA.  So warmer and moderately humid looks to be a safe bet for the middle part to the end of next week.  There could be some severe wx beginning to rear its ugly head if that "blue" anomaly comes in gangbusters early next week into the Great Lakes and Midwest region.....something to keep an eye on Craig!  OK...buddy....I'm saying severe wx (with numerous tornadoes) is likely early next week in the Midwest...and you can take that to the bank!  (Note the bank; however!)

Enjoy the beautiful evening!

Smitty

AA:  Showers likely Friday and then again a few showers on Sunday?  Becoming warmer and slightly more humid next week with a severe wx outbreak in the Midwest.