Now, I'm not saying that we will not have any heat.....in fact, the end of next week appears to be several degrees above normal for a day or two...but no more. A heat wave is defined as 3 or more consecutive days of 90+F max temps. I just don't see that occurring here in the Harrisburg area. Oh, we will be close to some impressive heat that will once again build out over the central and southern plains up through Canada as shown on the graphic below.
However, by the following Sunday, cool will rule most of the USA east of the Rockies. As seen below, temps should be at or near normal for the July 4 week, especially later in that week.
There is some discrepency between the operational run of the GFS and the ensembles. Remember, the ensembles are a computer run of the atmosphere beginning with ever so slightly different initialization parameters and conditions. The ensemble mean is the average of all of those runs all being weighted similarly. I do believe that the ensembles do a pretty good job as to what the trend of the weather and jet stream position will be...and remmenber, the trend is your friend!
In fact, both the Euro and the GFS show a relatively progressive flow which is why I feel that no prolonged hear will be able to become established over the eastern US. The Euro even has a bit of a trough here in the eastern US while the GFS (left) shows a fairly quick zonal flow...which is essentially a west to east flow.
As for the near term, enjoy the comfortable humidity that will be in place for us here in PA through most of Monday. Then a brief resurgance of the stickys will be thrust upon us...but this too should be brief and not too difficult to take compared to what it can be like around here at this time of the year. The map below shows next Monday and the higher dew points poised to move in just to our south.
In closing, I don't know about y'all, but I'm starting to think about football here in the midst of baseball season. Afterall, once mid-July rolls around, it's just a blink of an eye, and 2 a days begin. I at first thought it strange and even somewhat suggestive have McNabb working out with the Eagles in Philly earlier this week. Supposedly, he was there for the dedication of the new Neonatal Intensive Care Unit at the Voorhees Hospital, which he helped fund with a large donation. McNabb then welcomed the opportunity to work out with NFLers who were simply his friends and quite the "no-brainer" since he was in town. A deeper look might suggest that the Eagles are ready to trade Kolb and bring McNabb back as Vick's back-up.....seems logical to me. I know, I know...stick to the weather!
Enjoy the week's end!
Smitty
AA: Nice weekend; low humidity. Humidity increases with some brief heat next week. Longer term looks to be near normal or slightly below in terms of temperature; moderate humidity. Just a thought; would the Eagles trade Kolb and then re-sign McNabb?
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