I've highlighted 4 areas of interest on this morning's water vapor image. The primary feature that engulfs the entire eastern US is this painfully slow moving upper air low that will eventually move to eastern Quebec by Sunday. It's associated cyclonic flow will whip dry air in to our area later Friday, but it will also send in pockets of cold air aloft that will increase the chances on instability showers that could give a quick 0.10 inch rain shower with some gusts of wind. The most likely places for this would be north and west of the Harrisburg area, but we could certainly see a shower as the colder air at 18,000' moves in. One such area I circled is in purple and this area will cross over PA sometime later Friday afternoon. Where exactly it passes is where the showers will be enhanced. The red arrow shows the dry air that will move into PA during the course of our day. The red circle in the Gulf of Mexico is an area where Arlene may just materialize this weekend?
The map below shows the much lower dew points that are forecast to invade our state by Saturday. The map below is valid for Saturday evening. Turn off the AC. Definitely a nice refreshing break!
After this nice weekend, temps will certainly rebound for the middle and latter part of next week. The Euro still is much cooler than the GFS in the longer term. Here are the ensembles and their take on just how warm we are looking for the end of next week....about July 2. The the expansive warm area over the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
Even further down the road, if you remember I showed how the Euro and the GFS were at odds in the longer term. The GFS had a monster ridge up into Newfoundland. Well, look at the map now below. Both the Euro and the GFS are indicating that once this heat from next week passes, temps will return to normal or even slightly below normal. If that upper air flow would verify, we would be experiencing some very nice mid-summer weather with low to moderate humidity and warm, not hot temps!
The other reason that I always like to observe for any time of the year is the re-curving storms or typhoons in the summer over along the east coast of Asia. Presently, the is a tropical storm that is forecast to strengthen into a Cat 1 typhoon (Meari) and take the path that is shown below. This usually indicates about 10 days hence, a trough will be placed over eastern North America. The modeling seems to be going that way.
The people of eastern China sure are hoping this is the track that this storm takes as they cannot handle much more precip in what has been a record breaking spring in terms of precip as shown in the graphic below. Those dark blue areas exceed 450 mm. Why the scale is not on this map, I'm not sure?? I retrieved it from Earth Observatory website. 450 mm of rain is a tad over 17" of rainfall! Wow!
In closing, I was personally pleased to see that heavily democratic and labor union state New Jersey passed public worker reform in terms of benefits and pensions. With the overhaul, actuarially, the pension system will remain solvent with more moderate and realistic gains in investments coupled with larger contributions from the pensioners. I'm not sure why people don't understand why unsustainable public benefits need to be addressed. PA did so last year with its pension reform for newly hired workers. And now, PA is on the verge of passing a FISCALLY RESPONSIBLE budget. It's about time the politicians succumb to political pressures and often what amounts to political suicide and pass these types of legislation that will allow for a continued sustainability for benefits and pensions for the public work force. It will be interesting to see if the federal government can cope with these political pressures and pass meaningful entitlement reforms?!? It must occur if the solvency of these programs is to persevere. As for me, Chris Christie has grabbed the bull by the horns in NJ and showed what a good leader can do without the worry of political problems. I wish our national leaders would do the same!
Enjoy the nice wx week's end!
Smitty
AA: Nice weekend on tap; warmer next week once again....and then cooler longer term (normal or below) I do believe.
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