"...When The Gales of November Came Early"

"With a load of iron ore twenty-six thousand tons more than the Edmund Fitzgerald weighed empty,
that good ship and true was a bone to be chewed when the "Gales of November" came early." So sings the legendary singer-songwriter Gordon Lightfoot in his eloquent recalling of the sinking of the iron-ore ship that ran across Lake Superior from Duluth, MN to northern Wisconsin and the upper peninsula of Michigan.  Most, if not all of you are familiar with this very famous ballad. 

So why do I open with this?  Well, we are presently experiencing November-like weather here in PA thanks to a very strong and digging trough at all levels of the atmosphere that did cause Storm Warnings to be posted earlier in the week over both Lakes Michigan and Superior.  This morning's raw weather is a result of this anomalous low for this time of year.  Take a look at the 7:00 am obs from across central PA!

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

CITY                      SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
BRADFORD          LGT SNOW  33  31  92 NW7       29.85S FOG
DUBOIS                 LGT SNOW  34  34 100 NW8       29.87R FOG
CLEARFIELD        LGT RAIN  37  34  87 NW3       29.86R
JOHNSTOWN        FLURRIES  34  34 100 NW16      29.85S
ALTOONA              RAIN      38  34  85 NW10      29.85R FOG
STATE COLLEGE  RAIN      37  36  93 CALM      29.84R
WILLIAMSPORT    LGT RAIN  42  39  89 W9        29.80R
SELINSGROVE       RAIN      41  39  93 W5        29.81S FOG
FT INDIANTOWN  CLOUDY    41  41 100 NW15G25   29.75F
CAPITAL CITY      LGT RAIN  42  38  85 NW12G22   29.79S
HARRISBURG       CLOUDY    42  39  89 NW15      29.78S
YORK                     CLOUDY    43  39  87 NW8       29.79R

And read the statement from the State College NWS office this am!

0.7 INCHES OF SNOWFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED BY THE CO-OP OBSERVER AT
LAUREL SUMMIT THIS MORNING. THIS MARKS THE EARLIEST DATE IN THE
COOL SEASON THAT LAUREL SUMMIT HAS SEEN SNOW. CO-OPERATIVE WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN TAKEN AT LAUREL SUMMIT SINCE 1997. BOTH
KJST AND KBFD ARE SNOWING AS OF 11Z. TEMPS AT 34F MEAN LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS MOST LIKELY OCCURRING THERE...BUT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY AOB FZG. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT SLUSHY
ACCUMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE RIDGE TOPS.

This is due to global warming as I'm sure you are all very much aware!  Take a look at the model initialization for the GFS as this early morning....what a deep 500 mb trough and vorticity!

And you can clearly see the cold air at 18,000 feet streaming into the Mid-Atlantic states from O Canada.  And you can also see that this low is once again too far south of the main portion of the jet stream which is displaced well to the north.  Thus, until this upper low fills and and lifts northeast, we will have the potential for showers (instability) at any time, but the precip rates will not be too hard to handle.  Look at the temps at one mile up as of this morning!  Now this is not an observation; however, it is just run run from the initialization data at 06Z.  Also note the very warm air aloft over MT, ND and SD.  Under that 500 mb ridge, temps will moderate as that ridge progresses east during the week.

Here is a map of that ridge as forecasted by the GFS by Thursday afternoon.

The flow at 18,000' will still be NW, but the source region of the air has changed drastically.  Thus, look for temps to moderate to a more typical early fall "norm".  Here are the official NWS forecast highs for later this week (Friday).

So get through this "ugly" wx the next couple of days and early fall weather will be your reward awaiting your upcoming weekend!  And here is another reward as you read to this point.  A recording of the classic Gordon Lightfoot ballad of the Edmund Fitzgerald.  He opened with this song on his second set last evening at the Luhr's Center on the campus of Shippensburg University playing with the same? 12 string.  Gordon sounded like he was 72 yrs old and on his 18th show of his current tour.  I felt quite comfortable walking into to witness this show since Doc had easily handled the Cards by setting down 21 straight after giving up that 3 run dinger to Berkman.  Here's hoping that Cliff can work similar magic this evening at the Bank!  Now kick back, relax, and enjoy this 6 minute ballad that described the fate of this ore carrying ship on that November day in 1975.

Enjoy your Sunday!

Smitty

AA:  Quite raw and ugly for this time of year.  But improving conditions will begin Tuesday with beautiful early fall weather by the weekend!  Enjoy this folk song you "folksy" guy!