Simply Spectacular

That is what will describe our weather for the next several days.  We are experiencing a classic case of Indian Summer.  I know, I know, you need a frost before you have a spell of true Indian Summer.  But many places this past week had light frost in the lower Susquehanna Valley.  Under cloud free skies and light winds, radiational cooling was optimal.  Consequently, very cool mornings greeted early risers and patches of frost were observed by yours truly.  So I am calling this weekend's wx official Indian Summer!  Here is the IR satellite image as of this early Saturday morning.  Look at the expansive area of cloudless skies over the eastern part of North America.

And here is the 500 mb chart for the above observation.  A sprawling area of high pressure at all levels is what is dominating our present weather.  We waited all September to experience this fabulous fall wx!  Note the 588 mb high pressure over the Ohio Valley.  This will support daytime maxes in the 80s just to our SW and a few locations here in the lower Susquehanna Valley will also tickle the 80ºF mark over the next few days!  The stormy weather is being kept at bay out in the Rockies.

But then by next weekend, the expansive ridge will break down and a closed upper low will have our wx deteriorate rather abruptly with the potential of once again copious amounts of rain accompanied with wind and raw conditions.  This upper low will spawn a surface low that depending on its track will determine the exact location of the heaviest rainfall.  Here is the 500 mb prog for next Friday.  That is a broad deep trough over the eastern half of the US.  The Landis drainage project may quickly get tested!

Here is the potential rainfall as depicted by the GFS for the next 8 days in the SE portion of the USA.  Now some will say that is spitting out only an inch of rain over eastern PA.  I know!  But my fear is that heavy purple and red band which is far to the east may actually be corrected westward with time and that the heavy axis of rainfall is much closer to the coast.  There is a potential sub-tropical system to develop by Tuesday off the SE coast and it may stay closer to the mainland than the present numerical predictions from the GFS. 

Here is the Canadian's depiction of this system.  The first map shows tropical development by Monday.  The 2nd is for Wednesday and clearly develops a rainy scenario for the middle of next week with a 1004 mb low over the Chesapeake Bay.  So the jury is clearly still out!  Not sure which yet to believe.

Here is the storm over the Bay.....albeit it not too strong...but that 850 mb wind from the SE would lead to much rain for our area mid to late week.

After this system passes on by, it does appear that much cooler air will once again invade the eastern US as shown by the 850 mb temps for next Sunday.  And although I cannot show you, the 15 day prog is for an even deeper shot of cold air that will make many of aware that winter is just around the corner!

In closing, I would be remiss to not mention the total collapse of my favorite baseball team this October.  The team was assembled (with outstanding pitchers) to not only win a short playoff series, but to win a 7 game postseason series as well!  The only problem with the plan...you've got to hit!  Manufacture a run...anything.  When you give up ONE RUN in a deciding game, you should WIN!  ONE RUN!  That's it!  ONE!  When Chase Utley drove his ninth inning at bat 400'+ to dead center, I had the excitement of 988 mb low coming up the coast in January with a large dome of high pressure over the NE US....a classic nor'easter on the way!  When his blast was caught by the Cardinal center fielder, it was like the storm veered off to the east and we got but a thin veil of cirrus from what turned into a "fish" snowstorm.  The wind just left my sails....uuugh!  Now we wait and see who will prevail for this year's version of October MLB!  Not sure who will succeed in that venture either...

Have a good week's end!

Smitty

AA:  Beautiful weather through Tuesday, then potential for some good rainfall....followed by another shot of fairly cool October wx!  Now the Phillies can play golf with their RedSox colleagues!