Not only do we have that digging trough with which to contend, we also have a direct discharge over cold air directly from Hudson Bay aimed at western PA and WV. The 850 mb temps are progged to be below freezing for much of this weekend. This translates to surface temps easily being ~15º-20ºF below normal! Snowflakes should be spotted in the higher elevations of WV, VA, and NC this weekend. I wouldn't be surprised to even see the highest mountains of the Laurel Highlands in Somerset County, PA and Garrett County, MD see brief bursts to make the ground white from time to time. Wow! That is one ugly 850 mb map for this time of year.
Couple the cold air aloft with the vorticity from the 500 mb level, and we should see a rather ominous storm once again spin up, this time to our east. As a result, some backside rainfall is likely as shown by the surface map of the NAM seen below for Sunday morning. If that storm is a bit further east, the deformation precip will be directly over the Susq. Valley again allowing for yet another inch or so of rain to fall by Monday! Unreal!
It will not be until Tuesday or Wednesday once again until this upper level feature pulls away allowing for moderating temps and drying. I'm not too certain that an inch of rain will fall, but the potential is there. Here is the GFS take on the precip through Monday. As you can see, the "hot-spot" for precip is western PA. If the surface low is just a bit further east, wet will rule with heavier rainfall through Monday here as well.
But mid-late week next week will feature finally some nice fall weather as a large 1036 mb high will crest over NY and take control of the eastern US as shown by the GFS below. Also note the warming to our west at the 850 mb level meaning a moderating temperature will be in store for later in the week. You can also see 2 tropical systems in the Atlantic; Ophelia's remnants in the maritimes and the new boy Phillipe approaching and swinging east of Bermuda.
In closing, I'm not sure where to start. Remember, I love October sports and weather. Well, I love weather all months. Come to think of it, I like sports all months too. Just some better than others! I could address the 9-0 shellacking of Texas by Tampa Bay holding Texas to only 2 hits by pitchers I'm not even sure who they are! Or how the rain has once again interrupted the MLB schedule by wasting 2 outstanding pitchers from game 1 in the NYY-DET series. Also, I could espouse my hopes of Doc re-working some post season magic this afternoon. But I must report on what was a complete and thorough woodshed whipping by the CD Rams football team over its sister school. CD dominated all facets of the game; special teams, run defense, run offense, discipline of only 3 penalties I believe, turnovers...you get the picture. I guess if I could find any fault with the Rams, it was with the defensive play at the conclusion of the 2nd quarter when once again, the blitzing aggressive defense morphed into a "prevent" drop into coverage defense and East scored rather easily on a 6 play drive in ~1:00 minute. Other than that brief hope, the game was decided...arguably with 11:46 remaining in the 1st quarter! With the opening kickoff, CD returned the rock 98 yards to pay dirt and ignited a solid team effort throughout the game. East flashed some optimism throughout, but clearly...and I do mean clearly, CD was the far better team. Some renown local media mentioned that CD and CV are most likely the top 2 teams in District 3. Now I haven't see all of the teams play yet, but I can say that was a complete effort on the the part of the well coached Rams and next week's battle with CV should be a classic. East must regroup, understand they lost to one of the best teams in the District 3, and move on with their quest for the playoffs. There is an old adage in football: "You're never as good as the score implies and you're never as bad as the score implies". Well, CD looked impressive in the 49-7 win as witnessed by 7,000+ at Landis last evening. But I do not think East is as bad as that score indicates either. I believe there may be scheduling conflicts for Landis the 1st and possibly even the second round of playoffs as both CD and East will be extending their football seasons this year.
Have a great November-like weekend!
Smitty
AA: Cold and damp through Monday with slow improvement. Not great hunting weather due to winds. By end of the upcoming week, should be enjoying some nice fall weather. CD dominated East last evening...wasn't even close!
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