Wednesday Looks To Be A Rainy Day

But just how rainy?  It all depends as to where the atmospheric boundary sets up in its NW to SE direction over PA.  The NAM has the boundary to the NE of our area where as the GFS has the boundary very near us and to our west ever so slightly.  To the northeast of the boundary, temperatures will run a good 10 below normal whereas to the SW of the boundary, it will be business as usual with high humidity and above normal temps.  It is quite a dynamic situation for the dead of summer when this type of thing is relatively rare.  Let's compare the NAM and the GFS; 1st the 500 mb level and the yellow shaded area which is basically the vorticity maximum....or the spin that will help create the rainfall.

The NAM:

 The GFS:

The GFS has the area of greatest dynamics passing directly over central PA whereas the NAM has a disconnect between its forecasted precip and its greatest dynamics.  Below is the forecast precip for the period that covers Wednesday.  Note that the NAM has its greatest precip up to the NE of our area where the GFS has its rain directed towards KMDT.

The NAM: (greatest rain in NE PA)

 The GFS: (greatest rain NW to SE PA)



So what is the call?  I believe that KMDT will receive at least one inch of rain Wednesday daylight hours and temps will be hard pressed to reach 80F.  It will be sticky, but not too warm.  This may allow Hit and Run's grass to turn green once again in a few days!  Personally, I see August as slowly cooling from the apex of heat we experienced in July (it has no place to go but down!) with temps being somewhat at or slightly below normal through the month.  The graphic below is the GFS ensembles for next week.  That is a deep trough over the eastern part of the continent.  The heat is being forced to the desert SW for next week.  The upper high pressure is close to Flagstaff, AZ!

Now onto the tropics.  Emily has yet to be named as there are 2 distinct areas of thunderstorms.  However, this will get a name and become a hurricane, possibly a major hurricane according to some of the modeling.  The later this forms, the more likely the east coast of the US and Florida will be impacted.  Below is the latest satellite of the area in question of disturbed weather.  I highlighted the 2 areas that must congeal into one. 

As for the forecast tracks, I pulled out the longer range versions to show you that many of these models do have an impact on the east coast of the US.  In fact, given the right set of synoptic conditions, we could actually get some beneficial rains from this dying storm once to our latitude if its moisture is transferred into a digging shortwave that is might be embedded in the trough shown above.

Note how once to the Carolina coast, all the modeling sends the storm out to the east.  This is thanks to that trough shown above. However, it is possible, not probable, that some of the moisture could get moved towards SE PA and create some enhanced storminess and rainfall.  But the stronger that trough, the less likely that scenario.

As seen above, some of the models actually strengthen Emily to a Cat 4 storm.  I find that plausible, but again not very likely.  Here is the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) model and its strong Cat 3 storm.  Notice however, it keeps the storm well away from FL.

Well, gotta go since the radars are beginning to light up here and since I don't have a life, I will simply monitor the radars and the movement of the severe wx.  After all, the tomatoes have been picked, the sauce has been prepared and the peppers stuffed, so what else is there to do other than to monitor the radar!

Have a good Monday evening.....and I hope some of you get the rain that is pounding down here right now!  I haven't had to water for 5 days now!

Smitty

AA:  A rainy Wednesday is in store for us....I think?   Looks like an inch or so of rain could fall.  Tuesday will be nice with lower humidity and temps approaching 90F.  Still monitoring the tropics for our 1st major hurricane of the season?  Could affect east coast of FL and points north.