Smitty's attempt to educate and to a much lesser extent, entertain, about all facets of life; but primarily the meteorological and the climatological aspects of the earth sciences.
You know...with instantaneous media nowadays, HYPE seems to be the norm. Everything’s "unprecedented"; the "worst in 100 years", a "once in a lifetime", a "never seen before", a "catastrophic and historic" weather event, etc...you get the picture! I think social media has desensitized the populous to things that are truly worthy of these descriptors. From what I have read and seen over the past several days, the aforementioned descriptions are most definitely meritorious for this wx situation! The data suggests this; the professionals' opinions seem to indicate that this storm will be "historic". When I read these terms in the NWS discussions which are usually quite conservative in their tone, I do become concerned. When NOAA hydro forecasters compare this storm's potential to Agnes in terms of its flood potential, sure I worry for myself and others' interests. When PEMA and FEMA are activated 72 hrs prior to the storm's immediate effects, sure I am concerned. When States of Emergency are declared, yes, I am again solicitous. If this storm would not come to pass, it would be a colossal failure of the entire process of numerical weather prediction and the weather models themselves. I remember the "Superstorm of 1993" and the week long "hype" associated with its anticipated arrival. The models did a terrific job from 5-7 days out on nailing the "Storm of the Century"! It seems to me that when the wx variables are most extreme, the modeling is capable of honing into a clearer solution. I have no data to support that; it is simply a feeling of mine that if researched might prove to be true. So with the rock solid and steady performance of most of the global modeling, especially the Euro, and seeing a solution that looks like this for what now seems to be an endless week, sure I am concerned. You just don't see this everyday! This is for Monday evening...
Now with all of that editorial comment aside, GET READY! What does that mean? Prepare for power outages and everything that goes along with that. Prepare for copious amounts of rain. Prepare for winds sustained in the 20-30 mph range for nearly a day and half with saturated ground. Prepare for wind gusts to exceed 40 mph routinely with a few rogue gusts approaching 60 mph at the height of the storm. Wind forecasts are very difficult to quantify for the surface of the earth due to how much mixing there will be from aloft, local topography and terrain, etc...But here is a wind map for the windiest time of the storm from a model that is not too good from this far out yet...the NAM. It is a higher resolution model that feeds back too much as time proceeds further into the future. Below is 2am Tuesday morning...
What is copious amounts of rain? Well, here is the latest from the Hydro-Meteorological Prediction Center. Gut feeling, this is slightly underdone as many times the reality in PA with the upslope of only 500-800' from the Atlantic Ocean often leads to further rainfall and the modeling doesn't do well with that understanding. Again, my opinion from watching similar precipitation feeds from the Atlantic over the years.
The confidence in that this will occur grows further with each passing hour. When you see guidance clustered as we have the last few days, forecasting confidence can increase. Here are the latest plots for the location of the tropical system as it recurves back towards the land mass. Doesn't this, with a quick cursory glance, appear to be targeting KMDT? It sure does to me!
And the latest official track from the National Hurricane Center...
Even without the tropical system, this front and upper air vorticity would spawn a feisty storm to be sure; a typical nor'easter. But to have these 2 distinct entities phase, one being tropical in nature, right in the Mid-Atlantic is truly a problematic atmospheric occurrence. Here's hoping that everyone reading this fares well... So enjoy your weekend, be safe, and Get Ready. I'll leave y'all with this Rare Earth classic...love the hairdos!
Smitty AA: I believe this will be, from reading what all of the experts far more knowledgeable than me are quite concerned about this storm, a legitimate "historic" wx event. Rain begins Sunday...probably by noon. Gets heavy overnight into Monday morning and becoming quite breezy. Height of the storm will be Monday pm into the overnight. Finally winding down Tuesday pm! Be safe my friend.
NOT MY NAME! I first read this from one who often has little to say in his discussions at the Hydro-Meteorological Prediction center. But if the Euro verifies or even any of the other global models, this will go down in history as in the same breath as the Blizzard of 93; the Ash Wednesday Storm of 1962, Hurricanes Andrew and Katrina...you get the picture? This is the real deal people...!
Here is the daytime run for the Euro...simply astounding at how consistent this model has been!
It did slow it down somewhat and actually "phase" it with the cold digging trough a bit sooner...here it is 24 hrs later...ha...maybe the Euro is trying to tell DC something!
Look at the cold air digging into this monster as seen by the 850 mb temps depicted on the Euro for Tuesday morning!
That is some seriously cold air where the mtns of WVA would receive a crippling storm of snow in the high elevations and even NC and VA! We would certainly see flakes as well at the height of the windswept rains! Widespread power outages almost seem like a real certainty at this point! Just study the winds in this graphic...although these winds are about 1000' above the ground, you can essentially equate them to our wind gusts here at the surface....wow! The chart below is from the GFDL model...
And I'll leave y'all with this...HPC's official medium range map...for Tuesday morning!
I'll give a quick update tomorrow morning once my favorite Euro comes in....by the way...there was a unique set up today in PA...we here around KMDT experienced what woe the easterly flow can do...check out this visible satellite pic....it hit 82ºF in Pittsburgh today! But for us...low clouds, drizzle, and fog!
OK enjoy your Game 2 World Series...how about Sandoval in the same sentence as Ruth, Jackson, and Pujols...3 HR in one game in a WS game! Unreal! Kung Foo Panda...
Alright....gotta go...
Smitty
AA: More and more confident that this will be a doozy! One for the record books in so many ways!
Just a very quick update as to the potential coastal flooding associated with this hybrid howler we'll know as Sandy! Many of you that read this have coastal interests and concerns...well we are now in the time frame of where the NWS can make their storm surge predictions as per the ocean wave watch modeling. Seeing that the full moon is on Monday, this is simply a potential nightmarish scenario along the east coast and the coastal communities; especially the ones susceptible to flooding. First the Navy's WaveWatch map with the atmospheric storm's location...
And the graphic showing specifically Lewes, DE and the tremendous flooding potential that exists with this storm...the black is the forecasted high tide and nearly a foot over the Maximum Astronomical Tide!
OK...gotta run...just wanted to give the coastal interests a "heads-up"...as if you weren't already aware!
Smitty
AA: Coastal flooding will be a real issue depending on the exact track of the hurricane and whether it makes landfall at high tide...we are at "spring tide" with the full moon on Monday! This keeps getting uglier...and uglier!
No...not anything to do with baseball! If one wants a model of consistency, the Euro has been ROCK SOLID! Eight runs in a row...and it has BY FAR been the most consistent in solving the complexities of this upcoming weekend and early next weeks storm! Here is the Euro's depicted rainfall through Monday evening! By the way...there could still be 1-3" piled on top of that north of the Mason Dixon line...easily.....by the time this is all said and done!
And here is the Euro's location of the storm for Monday evening! Wow!
Switching gears to the purely tropical model that is touted by the NOAA agency of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL), this would be an ugly story for the MD and DE beaches with a major storm surge up the DE Bay all the way to Wilmington and Philly! Trenton would even see copious surge! This map is valid Monday morning...
And note the wind field associated with Sandy...you can clearly mark the track as predicted by the GFDL model...we would experience 60+ mph gusts back here in central PA if this would verify...Wow!
This is far from a done deal...but again the Euro has maintained her course! By tomorrow, the global modeling should begin to gather consensus as to how this extremely complex set of atmospheric variables will resolve themselves in what we experience as the sensible wx. Sandy, currently a Cat 2 just north of Cuba interacting with one of the fiercest troughs one could imagine for late October...very interesting! I've got chills...they're multiplyin'...I'll let Danny and Sandy take it from there...
Enjoy your Thursday.....
Smitty
AA: Looking more and more like we will experience one heckuva storm late this weekend into Tuesday......
The Euro's latest run has come out...and here it is for Monday morning! Ouch!
From what I have BRIEFLY read and perused this afternoon, the GFS has corrected its solution westward, so confidence will begin to build with this potentially multi-billion $$ storm threat to the east coast of the US. In other words, I do believe the TV mets will begin to discuss the possibilities of this quite impactful storm! Gotta run to go do the East frosh FB game at Landis....on this marvelously warm afternoon....77ºF by the time I leave here today....only 3ºF shy of the record of 80ºF set in 2001...which by the way was quite a mild winter for us (snowless as well)....for what that might be worth...take a look...
Sorry...I digress...gotta run...
Smitty
AA: Latest run of the Euro is UGLY for the eastern seaboard and us in central PA!
...it's U-G-L-Y! Look at the overnight run of the European...first for Sat. night.
Now Sunday evening...
Monday evening...
Monday evening 850 mb Temps....cold and snow in mtns of PA, w MD, WV, western NY!
This would be one for the record books, synoptic textbooks, historical fiction and non-fiction books alike, etc...
We'd be looking at 5-10" or wind swept rain and possibly even snowflakes mixed in at height of precip and when the storm pulls in even colder air that await up to the north and west!
Even if you go with the GFS solution this am...it is still quite stormy in these parts Sunday-Tuesday...but not as epic! OK....gotta go!
Smitty
AA: If the Euro proves true, this will be one heckuva storm late Saturday all the way into Tuesday! Then very cold next week.
You want extreme solutions, well here is one that is simply unreal! The Navy NOGAPS model does not have a very good track record; however, it is still one of many global models that must be considered in solving this very complex set of atmospheric variables and how they will all play out in the actual sensible wx experienced here on the surface of the earth. This is valid for Sunday evening...
It actually drives the cold air from the digging trough right into the low and has enough cold air to have it snow here around KMDT! To be sure, if this model would verify, the mountains of PA would get another early season snowfall of epic proportions! By the way, the Euro's earlier runs had snow for KMDT, but it has backed away from that solution on its latest solving of equations...
Maybe lost in all of this is the fact that the cold coming in with this deep trough is nothing to sneeze at for next week. Look at the GFS anomalies for next week...and the GFS isn't really all that bullish on the cold advecting from O Canada! The other global models are a bit colder and bolder...
There are places that are forecast to see their temps remain -20F below normal in the SE USA! And here are the 7 day means for the end of next week! Remember, when you average things out, that tends to minimize the extremes....means and extremes...regression to the means...all that statistical stuff! For the 7 day period ending next Sunday, man alive, next week WILL BE a cold week!
Also note that the snow is starting to lay down winter's white blanket over most of the western part of our neighbor's to the north! This is the forecast snow depth by Friday morning...it is still October y'all! Climatologically, still a bit early for this widespread snow cover.
And just in case you want more storminess and cold...let's go across the pond to where western Europe is getting quite an early season shot of cold! Scandinavia is looking genuinely gelid the next several days! The map below shows the anomalies for surface temps over the next 8 days! Wow!
So there you have it...the earth's northern hemisphere is transitioning into its cold season. And along with that nature cyclical occurrence: the cold, the storminess, the battles of air masses, the excitement of digging troughs or the proposition of curling up under a blanket to a good book! Whatever strikes your fancy just like this 1980 ditty strikes mine....enjoy!
And enjoy your mid-week...
Smitty
AA: Still monitoring the storm potential for Sat. night into Tuesday...and almost assuring a turn to some nasty early season cold for the bulk of next week. Also, yet another good tune!
I just want to share a few model solutions that I find just incredibly extreme. There is no doubt that someone along the east coast will be pounded by wind, rain, and surf in the 5-7 day period from today. But the million dollar question is just where, whom, and how badly. Well there are some extreme solutions seen below...First one I haven't shown you yet for this scenario but do often in the winter months because it sometimes does "sniff" out a big storm! The Japanese Model (JMA) for Sunday am...look at all of the rain!
Now, the Euro in 2 parts...note how the tropical system retrogrades back west across NY! Here is the Euro for Monday evening...
And for Tuesday evening...moves right across NYC and takes Route 6 & 17 west to Buffalo!
And finally the O Canadian...this is Saturday night...just after midnight!
Here is GFS...a weak precip free front and a rather strong tropical system on the eastern edge of most guidance...I don't think it is a good solution because at the very least, this front coming in with its dynamics will create plenty of upward motion to promote a rather wet 2nd half of the weekend into early next week....AT THE VERY LEAST!
OK...enough said for now...other than enjoy this ditty about After Midnight!
Have a tremendous Tuesday!
Smitty
AA: Some potentially extreme solutions for this upcoming storm! Also a good tune!
If this were a couple weeks back, the 3 Columbus ships would've been an appropriate title. Now it is the ECMWF, the CMC, and the GFS...still 2 of the 3 have a historical storm blasting...and I mean blasting into the Delmarva Saturday night into Sunday morning! The American GFS has the hurricane (Sandy) moving harmlessly out to sea...I will quickly show all 3 maps for late Saturday evening...and withhold much comment...just take a look at all 3...1st THE GFS...
Now the O Canadian...
Lastly, the ECMWF or the Euro...
I won't even go to Sunday evening...sufficient to say now, the Euro and O Canadian are billion $$ storms, the GFS a "fish storm"! The CMC is the fastest of all solutions and when looking at the O Canadian, note how far south the 850 mb sub-freezing level gets (skinny blue lines as opposed to the skinny red lines)...ALL THE WAY TO THE GULF COAST! That is one deep powerful digging trough! OK...gotta go...
Happy Monday everyone!
Smitty
AA: Watching the modeling evolve for this weekend's potential history making storm...
But it WILL NOT be a party if this verifies! A tropical cyclone (hurricane) coming ashore in the Mid-Atlantic with a direct hit to population centers is not a pretty scenario for any season! Here is the map...
This would having flooding rains in VA, MD, DE, and PA to be sure along with hurricane force gusts! It would also develop mountain snows up into northern PA, NY, western MA, VT, NH and ME! This storm would be one for the ages! The cold that is coming on the backside of this system is a direct discharge of the Arctic. Take a look at the anomalies for next week...That is one cold eastern half of the US!
I will try to keep y'all updated as to how this whole system might affect us here near KMDT. Now back to football with one eye on the updating 18Z GFS!
Smitty
AA: Might get hammered next weekend in these parts....by the wx!
Remember last year; Halloween weekend or last weekend in October? In case you forget, we had our largest snowfall of the entire winter season as a strong upper level trough dug into an area of low pressure moving up the Mid-Atlantic coast. The temps were marginal for snow; however, with the strong dynamics of the digging trough and vorticity in the upper atmosphere, adiabatic cooling created the necessary cold temperatures to produce snow! Below is the surface air pressure map and temperatures Saturday night following the snow...You can see the low pressure pulling away into the Atlantic and the trough's cold air moving SE...
So why the flashback? Glad you asked! Not that we are talking snow for these parts next weekend, but not too far away, there may be some impressive early season snows as a very active trough digs into the Mid-Atlantic region. After a beautiful week of wx (NNAS from Saturday's post), we are looking at some severe early season cold advecting into lower 48. Most of the center part of the country is much below normal and the NNAS warmth is departing NE through New England. Take a look!
I will next show you the GFS, the Euro, and the Canadian for the same forecast time, that being next Saturday evening. All are in remarkably good agreement with a tropical system off the Florida coast. It is what happens after is where the modeling diverges substantially. But 1st, let's look at the period for next Saturday night as depicted by the GFS...
The Euro...
And the O Canadian...
So all 3 global models have a rather powerful tropical cyclone off the SE USA coast. But look at what the O Canadian does with this energy 24 hours later! WOW! POW! Boom! Crash!
If that situation would verify, it would be one for the ages! Flooding tropical rains and damaging hurricane forced winds would ravage much of the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday. To put it very simply, this would be UGLY is so many ways! Personally, an extreme solution like this I do not believe will verify...BUT IT MUST BE WATCHED AND MONITORED! Here is the Euro for next Sunday evening...
And the GFS for next Sunday evening...which I believe will occur with some good mountain snows in New York and northern New England! Some of the energy from the tropical system is transferred NW towards the mainland as it interacts with the digging trough in the upper atmosphere...winter is just around the corner for these parts!
So there you have it...a rather interesting upcoming weekend in terms of the weather! And depending on which of the 3 global models I just showed you, all very different outcomes from a somewhat agreed upon starting point with the tropical system east of FL. Speaking of 3 different outcomes, I just listened to a song from many years ago that also describes 3 different scenarios...The Wallflowers' Three Marlenas... Jakob Dylan's band from the 90s in case you're not familiar. I hope you enjoy this "flash-back" as well...
By the way...how 'bout the Nittany Lions?!? 24-0 at half! 38-0 when the game was most certainly settled! Wow! Next week's game vs Ohio State should be interesting! The wx MIGHT play a role in the outcome...
Have a good week and enjoy our NNAS wx!
Smitty
AA: Nice week of wx coming up. Could get some rain on Tuesday...but not much. Very mild to downright warm then through Friday! But next weekend could be quite stormy in these parts...or just transitioning to colder conditions. Too complex to have much confidence at this point.
