A Look Behind and a Look Ahead

Now with June 2011 in the record books, we can verify what many of you probably thought; that June was warm.  Well, June 2011 averaged 2.1 degrees above normal for the month but only had 3 days where the max temp achieved 90F or greater...and that was at the beginning of the month.  Remember when the energy czar reduced the cooling and stated that people did not notice a difference!  Well my one cohort spewed rants about working conditions comparable to some sweat box in southeast Asia.  That's because it was so hot and humid compared to normals so of course it was going to be equally as uncomfortable inside when not maximizing the efficiency and output of the system designed to cool the complex.  Anyway, below shows the temperature graphic for KMDT for June 2011.

Precipitation was also above normal for the month with some hefty thunderstorms in the middle of the month.  This was a typical hit and miss pattern where precip amounts varied drastically over just a few miles.  However, based on the climate location of KMDT, we received 5.17" which is 1.18" above the normal of 3.99".  1.84", a record for June 16, was 35% of the monthly total.  For the year, we are still well above normal despite that snow deficient winter that had me eating well that to my grammatically astute and literaturally literate compadre!

As for the current holiday weekend that is upon us, we will have a beautiful time of it with warm temps and moderate humidity.  The humidity will invade late today and be at its highest relative point overnight tonight into Sunday morning.  Then a front will be poised to move SE across PA during the daylight hours Sunday and kick off some thunderstorms mostly during the morning and early afternoon hours.  I cannot rule out a stray storm lingering into Sunday evening, but the bulk of the rain will fall when people are either going to or coming from church, Sunday brunch, morning run, Sunday tomato watering, or whatever else tickles your fancy on a Sunday morning.  The SREFs show that we could obtain ~0.50" of much needed liquid sunshine primarily during the Sunday morning hours.

Then according to the progged 500 mb modeling, a strong dose of Canadian air will be delivered once again leading to warm days and relatively cool nights through the middle of the upcoming week.  Eventually, this air mass will too become slightly more humid.  But overall, the heat and the humidity will be moderate for this upcoming week!  The map below shows the 1-5 day means of temps for this upcoming week.  As you can see, PA is in the white which indicates near normal temps.  For those of you vacationing along the Mid-Atlantic coast, the slightly above normal temps are indicative a robust NW flow at the upper levels creating a weaker than normal on-shore sea breeze leading to the warm beach conditions.  Those of you who did choose this week for the beach vacation must have an "in" with some wx guy that tipped you off to such nice wx this week!

As for the longer term, the persistent trough here in the east is being advertised on both the Euro and the GFS, although the GFS is extreme with its trough.  Below are 2 depictions of the upcoming pattern from the GFS.  The 1st double map is the ensemble mean and the white line shows the operational GFS run.  The 2nd map is the actual detailed operational run.  If that would verify, we'd be looking a a rain event sometime in the 2 week hence period as that closed 500 mb low moves over PA!

 Now that is one deep trough.....too deep realistically for this time of year!

The last map below shows the forecast temps for Independence Day.  A pronounced NW flow will lead to low humidities (not as low as this past Thursday and Friday, but still comfy) and moderate temps.  If we don't hit 90F Saturday, I do not think we will not hit 90F for the foreseeable future.

In closing, as we celebrate our nation's 235th birthday, enjoy your family, friends, cookouts, outdoor excursions, baseball events, democratic depravity from the liberal left, or whatever else may be on your holiday weekend agenda...and may I suggest that you still have 3 chances to view the Harrisburg Symphony Orchestra's salute to Independence Day...including their marvelous rendition of the 1812 Overture, which as the maestro reminds us is traditionally performed during July 4 celebrations, but was actually written by a Russian composer detailing the Russian War for its own independence, (kinda ironic don't ya think...)....remember our great country, and although it does have some flaws, is still the greatest sovereign nation on planet earth. 

Happy July 4!

Smitty

AA:  Warm Saturday, showers Sunday, cooling and drying Monday (good grillin' wx!), nice wx with moderate heat and humidity for next week.  Have a great 4th my friend!

Nice Holiday Weekend for the Mid-Atlantic

In the above satellite pic taken ~noon EDT, I highlighted a few areas.  The first is Arlene now making landfall in Mexico.  I also show the NW flow still advecting beautifully dry and cool air towards PA.  I outlined the area of fairly intense heat over the center part of the country and I showed a unique boundary just offshore of the east coast where the cool, dry DENSE air flowing off the continent clashes with the warm humid air from the tropical Atlantic and the very warm gulf stream air producing numerous showers and thunderstorms for the fish.  Below is a top view of the season's first tropical storm coming ashore as seen using water vapor imagery.

And for the heat...here is the forecast max temps for today....quite toasty in...say...gimme a T for Texas...gimme a T for Tennessee!...well not so hot in Tennessee, but much warmer than here!

As for that boundary out over the ocean, here is the model's depiction of how much fresh water will try to desalinate that section of the gulf stream!  Note how dry it remains here over PA.  We sure could use some of the fresh water precipitating out of the atmosphere over our region; it appears unlikely at this time unless a shower or storm can develop when the humid surge comes in Saturday night and Sunday morning.  But even then, the humidity and the rain chances will be brief!  The 4th of July looks to be warm and dry and not very humid over almost all of the Mid-Atlantic....say from LonG Island to Dewey Beach, DE!

Here is the maximum progression of the heat upper high making its way towards PA.  The 588 mb line makes it to central PA.

Then note how far SW it gets "squished" by the jet stream in just 36 hours!  When cool dry air wants to move, it will, at will whenever it is up against warmer, more humid, and less dense air!  That map below is indicating a beautiful July 4 here in PA, NJ, MD, DE, NY...also, look how far north that ridge goes up into Nunavut!

So enjoy the nice string of summer weather, albeit we could use some rain, into the foreseeable future.  There will be some unsettledness possibly Saturday evening and Sunday when some humidity makes itself known.  But if that upper air pattern verifies above, that humidity will shunted out of here like a lineman whose first move is to stand straight up!

I personally don't remember this as I was only 8 yrs old at the time, but 40 years ago today, one of my favorite movies was released today in 1971!  That wacko Gene Wilder played a great role in this film with characters having outstanding names:  Veruca Salt (not the alternative band!), the Oompa Loompas, Mike Teevee, Charlie Bucket, Augustus Gloop, Slugworth...well you know I'm talking about Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory!   What a great social commentary on the ugliness of human nature. But Charlie ultimately takes the path less traveled!  What a great flick...enjoy a flashback below. And Johnny Depp can't hold even half a candle to Gene Wilder!

Happy 4th of July weekend!

Smitty

AA:  A nice 4th of July weekend...and today marks the 40th anniversary of the release of Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory...a movie way ahead of its time!

A Hot Couple of Days, But No Heat Wave

I start y'all off with the current IR satellite midday Wednesday.  We are currently experiencing spectacular wx thanks to the cyclonic flow around the upper low over Quebec and driving cool and dry air equatorward as indicated by my red arrow.  An upper level high pressure region is strengthening over the central and southern plains and will try to expand east.  However, I believe that the consistent weakness in the east (trough) will keep the highest dew points and hottest air just to our SW.  There is a relatively strong "Chinook" that is helping with the northward expansion of heat as I am showing with the red arrow over the northern Rockies.  As air sinks from the 10-14K feet mountains, the air compresses and warms to the tune of ~5F per 1000 feet.  This process can most certainly aid in the expansion of heat from the southern deserts of our country.  Of course, the most obvious feature is tropical storm Arlene getting ready to make landfall along the Mexican coast just south of Brownsville, TX. 

Enjoy Thursday and Friday.  By Saturday, the heat will make in roads to our part of the country.  In fact, I believe the high tide of the heat will be Saturday or maybe Sunday.  This will correspond to the highest dew points as well.  3 graphics below is the 500 mb prog for Saturday evening.  This is as far east as the 588 mb height line invades.  The slight trough in subsequent days pushes that 588 mb height back to our SW and with it the hottest heat and greatest humidity.  Good news for all both in PA and any beach bums heading to the DELMARVA beaches as the offshore WNW flow will downslope and keep temps nice and warm for those taking a dip in the big pond.  It is not until late in the next week period where a pattern shift is likely to disrupt this flow in the jet stream pattern.  Here is the high tide of heat as shown by the GFS modeled temps for Saturday afternoon.  Note the extreme temps in the south and how east of the Appalachians in PA, we are holding onto slightly cooler air as compared just to our west.

Here are the highest dew points over the next 7 days as well.  Again, the humidity will come back later Saturday making for a warm and humid Saturday night into Sunday.  Dew points should approach 70F here in southern PA.  But note the tongue of dry air pointing straight towards Erie and Ontario and with a little umph from the jet in a WNW direction, that dry DENSE air should help keep the warmer and less dense humid air pushed off to our SW.  Here's hoping from my personal wishes.

Here is the farthest NE the 588 mb height line gets into PA (as promised).  What this also means is that once that 588 mb retreats, an increasing chance of thundershowers will be on the docket with the heating of the day and the little vort maxes moving through the upper atmosphere and we sure could sure use some more rain again as we missed out on the good rains Tuesday with the frontal passage.  A trace of rain is pathetic for the synoptic set up we had here in PA yesterday!  Oh well.....

I did want to include a graphic or 2 of Arlene.  She should not gain hurricane status before making landfall sometime Thursday.

The deep red above and grayish below is the very dense central overcast where the strongest convection is occurring in the cluster of thunderstorms making this a warm core tropical cyclone.

In closing, night has now fallen over a once world envy called Greece.  In what amounts to an historic vote to instill extreme austerity measures over the next 5 years, the Euro seems to be in tact for a little while longer.  Economically, the status quo is unsustainable. Instead of postponing the inevitable, in my opinion, it would be far smarter to prepare for a Greek default.  Euro policymakers should follow an ordered default and re-structuring on Greek governmental and commercial debt obligations. Couple that with a bit of a relaxation of the austerity plans and Greece may have a fighting economic growth chance.  A flat tax would be prudent as well....as would be in this country!  Understand that this will not be easy – but at least it will not be as impossible as achieving the kind of austerity that Greece is being forced to follow.  Face it, the entire world's investments are "banking" on Greece as shown below.

Especially Germany!

Enjoy this nice weather through the end of the week!

Smitty

AA:  Nice and comfy through Friday and even most of Saturday.  It will get hot and humid Sat pm and Sunday.  Still warm, but not too hot for early next week until a pattern change sometime by the end of next week.  Watch Phils sweep the RedSox as well!

Moving Towards the 4th

Water vapor images like the one from this morning shown above can offer lots of insights to how the atmosphere is moving and reacting to the various pressure differences across the globe.  The white areas are quite humid in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere whereas the black areas are dry as I have labeled.  The dry that is sitting over PA right now will inhibit any chance of rain for today but it is moving out getting replaced by the big blob of white just to our west.  However, waiting in the wings is that dry air from AB, SK, and MT to move in here for Thursday.  The HOT & dry air from the SW will make it into western PA by Friday, but according to most medium range models, the real heat will get cut off at the pass and not really make inroads past the Appalachians for but maybe one day and that would be Saturday.  Here is the National Radar that corresponds to the WV image from above.

Tuesday we will have a front pass through PA and with it deliver some potentially drenching thundershowers in the afternoon hours.  I really think the chance of any severe wx is limited as the instability with high CAPE will be limited for just a brief time directly ahead of the cold frontal passage.  We might see some gusty winds with the heavy rain as some downbursts will be created with heavy rainfall.  Here is the short term model for PA for tomorrow afternoon.  You can clearly see the front and its associated rainfall.  Personally, it is too difficult for the model to pinpoint EXACTLY where the drenching storms will pass, but the model is suggesting that there will be some rainfall with tomorrow's cold frontal passage.

Here is the NWS forecast national map for the approximate same time Tuesday.

Then, nice wx will move in for Wed-Friday with Thursday being the nicest day at the end of this week.  Here is the forecast for Thursday.

Warm air will then be on the move, but as I said earlier, the hottest of the heat will remain to our SW and although we may feel some of the heat Saturday, Sunday and Monday loom with the potential for a boundary to set up over us with low level easterly flow that could make the July 4th holiday rather murky and dull.....but that is a different story for a different day.

In closing, I found it rather odd that in this time of global warming, the Mt Washington (British Columbia) resort and lodge east of Vancouver will be open for skiing this July 4th weekend!  Those rowdy rioters need this outlet! This is the latest they've ever been open for skiing and snowboarding.  The graphic below shows the anomaly for snow extent in the land dominated northern hemisphere.  And the snow year which will end here Thursday (June 30), the 2011 anomaly is even higher!  Let's see how the global warming put a spin on this data and suggest this is due to the earth's climate warming!  Unbelievable!



Have a great beginning of the week.....

Smitty

AA:  Nice Monday, front will pass Tuesday with storms, Wed-Friday are nice with Thursday being the nicest of the nice!  Getting warmer and more humid by Saturday, but I think another front will get close to us and give a potentially dull July 4 holiday with easterly winds.  Remember, winds from the east, weather is least; winds from the west, weather is best!

Zonal Flow Makes Short Range Little Easier

I've highlighted 3 areas on the above Sunday morning IR satellite pic.  Working from the west, the 1st is the large expanse of cloud free skies out over AZ and So Cal and essentially the entire desert SW USA.  This will lead to very hot dry conditions for this upcoming week, but as I will show the bulk of this heat should stay west of the Appalachians.  The circled blue area is a cold and dry front that is progressing rather quickly to the ESE and will be crossing our area Tuesday afternoon.  The 3rd is this MCS (mesoscale convective system) that will give us debris clouds from the thunderstorms today, but really should not give us any rainfall as this system will pass to our south through NC. 

Here is what the 500 mb looks like with these systems as shown with the IR pic.  Note the red circling the 588 mb isobar indicating warm temps aloft and obviously at the surface.  Then move north to the blue region where there are 2 distinct areas of vorticity creating the frontal boundary that will progress east.  Then the not so obvious MCS centered over Davenport, IA where Obama is making a visit tomorrow to the AA plant (NO, not the Arnick Addendum...Alcoa) where he will try to put the spin that he and his party is pro business and pro growth!  Ha!  Sorry......I digress.....

Below I will show 4 quick graphics that will show the front passing Tuesday afternoon here in the Harrisburg area.  The first you can see the rain associated with the front. 

 Here are the winds ahead of the front.  Note the southerly direction bringing in warmer and much more humid air.  Tuesday appears to be the most uncomfortable day of the week in terms of heat and humidity.  A good day for a swim....eh?

And the warm, not hot temps. 

Now here are the winds by Wednesday morning coming from the NW ushering in much drier and somewhat cooler air for the end of the week!

By Thursday, a rather large area of high pressure will be sitting over PA giving us beautiful summer weather into the July 4 weekend.  As we approach the weekend, temps and dew points will be on the rise.  Here is the NWS interpretation of the surface map for Thursday.  It will be difficult to locate any clouds on what should be a bright, blue sky sunny day!

Well, that is all.  No off the wall comments as I must get ready to leave for Columbia and get things right with my maker.  And since it might take 15+ minutes just to get out of my neighborhood due to the insanity that has overtaken our little hamlet of Valley Green, I must end this quickly.  But I did say "Blue Sky"....didn't I?  That is one of my favorite Allman Bros songs....click the video below to see if you agree?

Have a great Sunday!

Smitty

AA:  Nice through Monday, getting warmer and more humid until front passes Tuesday with some showers and storms.  Then, Wed-Sat look nice...getting warmer and more humid as we approach the weekend.  Enjoy some good music!