Wild Wx For Next Weekend

Remember last year; Halloween weekend or last weekend in October?  In case you forget, we had our largest snowfall of the entire winter season as a strong upper level trough dug into an area of low pressure moving up the Mid-Atlantic coast.  The temps were marginal for snow; however, with the strong dynamics of the digging trough and vorticity in the upper atmosphere, adiabatic cooling created the necessary cold temperatures to produce snow!  Below is the surface air pressure map and temperatures Saturday night following the snow...You can see the low pressure pulling away into the Atlantic and the trough's cold air moving SE...

So why the flashback?  Glad you asked!  Not that we are talking snow for these parts next weekend, but not too far away, there may be some impressive early season snows as a very active trough digs into the Mid-Atlantic region.  After a beautiful week of wx (NNAS from Saturday's post), we are looking at some severe early season cold advecting into lower 48.  Most of the center part of the country is much below normal and the NNAS warmth is departing NE through New England.  Take a look!

I will next show you the GFS, the Euro, and the Canadian for the same forecast time, that being next Saturday evening.  All are in remarkably good agreement with a tropical system off the Florida coast.  It is what happens after is where the modeling diverges substantially.  But 1st, let's look at the period for next Saturday night as depicted by the GFS...

The Euro...

And the O Canadian...

So all 3 global models have a rather powerful tropical cyclone off the SE USA coast.  But look at what the O Canadian does with this energy 24 hours later!  WOW!  POW!  Boom! Crash!

If that situation would verify, it would be one for the ages!  Flooding tropical rains and damaging hurricane forced winds would ravage much of the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday.  To put it very simply, this would be UGLY is so many ways!  Personally, an extreme solution like this I do not believe will verify...BUT IT MUST BE WATCHED AND MONITORED!  Here is the Euro for next Sunday evening...

And the GFS for next Sunday evening...which I believe will occur with some good mountain snows in New York and northern New England!  Some of the energy from the tropical system is transferred NW towards the mainland as it interacts with the digging trough in the upper atmosphere...winter is just around the corner for these parts!

So there you have it...a rather interesting upcoming weekend in terms of the weather!  And depending on which of the 3 global models I just showed you, all very different outcomes from a somewhat agreed upon starting point with the tropical system east of FL.  Speaking of 3 different outcomes, I just listened to a song from many years ago that also describes 3 different scenarios...The Wallflowers' Three Marlenas... Jakob Dylan's band from the 90s in case you're not familiar.  I hope you enjoy this "flash-back" as well...

By the way...how 'bout the Nittany Lions?!?  24-0 at half!  38-0 when the game was most certainly settled!  Wow! Next week's game vs Ohio State should be interesting!  The wx MIGHT play a role in the outcome...

Have a good week and enjoy our NNAS wx!

Smitty

AA:  Nice week of wx coming up.  Could get some rain on Tuesday...but not much.  Very mild to downright warm then through Friday!  But next weekend could be quite stormy in these parts...or just transitioning to colder conditions.  Too complex to have much confidence at this point.